Week 2 observations and week 3 ponderings

Another meh week with two NFL games pending.  If Week 2 taught us anything, it's never, ever, overreact to Week 1!  I've been doing this for damn near 40 years, but apparently I'm still not immune to an occasional brain fart.  Such as: 

4* Appalachian St+17 -  I should've known better than to go against a team after a bad loss.  I do think Clemson's days of being a championship calibre team are in the rearview mirror as long as Dabo Swinney shuns the transfer portal, but this was a bad spot to go against them, even given the Mountaineers' penchant for springing an occasional big upset. This game was over in the first quarter.  App St. better shake this one off quick.  They go on the road again at East Carolina.

3* Arkansas+10 -  I feel bad for those that had the Hogs +7', because they should've won the damn game!  They outgained Okie St. by 263 total yards, outrushed them 232 to 59, and dominated time of possession, but turnovers and missed field goals did em in. 

3* IOWA -3 - Hawkeyes blew this one in the first half when they had to settle for field goals twice after having first and goal from inside the five yard line.  If you let a team hang around long enough you usually wind up paying for it.  Hats off to the 'Clones for taking advantage.  It was a great game.

3* NEBRASKA -7 - Every now and then I get one right.  The Cornhuskers dominated from the onset on both lines of scrimmage in another impressive outing.  They mixed the run and pass efficiently on offense and shut down the Colorado attack convincingly with a stout "D".  I thought there'd be more points scored, but I guess I'm not a totals guy. The 'Huskers are the real deal this year.

Record year to date: 4-4 ATS, -1.3 units pending tomorrow's NFL plays:

3* Titans +4' over BEARS

3* COLTS +3 over TEXANS 

More to come tomorrow.  Mr. Sandman is calling.....zzzzzz

Agree on both! 

good luck today! 

Great stuff as usual.  Not to overreact but ...

If Ohio State doesn't win the Big Ten this season I don't know what to say. While they have had two scrimmages, they should dominate the line of scrimmage in every game. Think they win by double-digits at Oregon.

Lane Kiffin is an elite playcaller. Can't wait to see that team vs. Georgia in November.

You mentioned Oklahoma State. Thought they would be better than the looked.

Indiana has a really a good coach. Don't expect any issues out from that experienced team this week. While UCLA is off a bye, don't think it will matter as Hoosiers roll in Pasadena. Nebraska after Indiana on Oct. 19 is a sneak good game.

Oklahoma isn't very good. Tulane could test them but Green Wave in a tough spot after squandering that lead vs K-State. OU loses at home to Tennessee on Sept. 21.

Interested to hear more of your thoughts.

 We're starting to see who the pretenders are........Oregon....Michigan....NC St.....Penn St.....ND.....& of course FSU. This happens every year, where the media darlings are shook out of the tree. In all fairness, I don't think Michigan is terrible other than the QB....just beaten soundly by a better team.

Scoring is suppressed again this year. Unders are 56% in all games and 57% in non-OT games. Maybe something to do with the play calling in the helmet of the QB

@Laroja

 Too many DEI coaches.  

My meh week concluded with the Titans (+4) blowing a 17-0 lead to lose 24-17.  Bears scored on a blocked punt and a pick six to kill the cover.  Ugh But the Colts (+3) got me the money losing by two.  The weekend concludes with me down -1.6 units.  

Ok, now on to the week that was. 

SMU appears to be vastly overrated, failing to cover as double digit chalk over Nevada and BYU.  They're lucky they're not 0-2!

@CKP22

 You're takes are spot on regarding Indiana and  Oklahoma.  The Hoosiers are going to make some noise this year.  As I mentioned last week, Curt Cignetti is a tremendous coach (52-10 in six seasons with James Madison, including 19-5 in their first two seasons in the FBS).  Indy has 21 starters back from last year, and I agree that UCLA is gonna have their hands full in Week 3.  The Sooners have major problems on offense.  The 51 points they scored in Week One were misleading.  They only had 389 total yards but we're the beneficiaries of six Temple turnovers!  Saturday, they were outgained by woeful Houston by 69 yards.  They couldn't run and couldn't pass, and they better get things fixed in a hurry because...

Tulane is coming to Norman pissed off after the way they got hosed against Kansas St. with a controversial pass interference call near the end of the game. They gave the Wildcats all they could handle, but fell victim to a 60 yard scoop and score, an end zone int. with seconds left, and Stevie Wonder calling P.I. on the wrong team.  The Green Wave is coached by another guy I'm high on; Jon Sumrall, who guided Troy to 23 wins the last two years (Without him the Trojans appear to be fade material this year). Tulane will give Oklahoma all they can handle, and they should be 2-0!

@THEMUGG

Agreement on Michigan's QB situation.  Texas was solid, but not spectacular, and played mistake free ball; a good recipe for success. The Wolverines needed to play mistake free ball to have a chance, and they didn't do it.  

Not sure what to make of Oregon just yet.  Idaho is one of the better FCS teams, and Boise St. has their best team in years.  At the risk of sounding like a homer, Ashton Jeanty is one of the best players in the country. 

As for Penn St. they clearly had a letdown after dominating West Virginia last week, but I also think Bowling Green is pretty dang good! They're no fluke. Nothing fluky about Northern Illinois win at South Bend either. They outgained Notre Dame by over 100 yards, and were clearly the more physical team.  The Irish saw their playoff hopes crippled with this loss.  They need a lot of chaos from the teams ranked ahead of them.

And I don't think NC State is a bad team.  Tennessee was just spectacular behind QB Nico Lamaleava and a defense that held the Wolfpack to a mere 143 total yards!  The Vols dominated in the air (211 yards) and on the ground (249 yards, 5.7 yards per carry).  It was one of the most impressive performances of the weekend!

With you on SMU, which has massive issues on the offensive line. BYU D-line dominated that game. 

Jeanty is big-time. It's a QB award, but could Jeanty be in the Heisman discussion?

Barry Odom is also doing quite the job at UNLV. Tough game this week on the road. Think Kansas probably bounces back.

Finally, any thought on Arkansas State (+24)  being able to keep af Michigan, which just doesn't have a functioning offense. Jones is an experienced coach and may have learned a thing or two after spending a few seasons on Satan's staff at Bama.

@Boisestateand8

  Oregon was ranked a top 5 team.....nothing I've seen justifies that. Boise isn't bad but not a great squad.

Should be an entertaining game Thursday with Arizona St. traveling to Texas St.  Sun Devils have looked good so far, but better not be caught looking ahead to their conference opener. The Bobcats blew the doors off UTSA last week, 49-10, as Jordan McCloud (Sun Belt POY in '23) went 18 of 27 for 309 yards and scored four TDs.  This is a HUGE opportunity before a national TV audience for them to shine against the only Power Four team on their schedule.  Win it, and they're in the convo for the G5 playoff berth.  Lean Texas St. +2.

UNLV is another team looking to shine against a Power Four opponent, when they go to Lawrence KS. to face Kansas on Friday.  Could be a tough spot for the Rebels though, with the Jayhawks coming off a tough loss at Illinois.  Kansas dominated on the ground, outrushing the Illini 182, 5.5 average, to 79, 2.3, but we're done in by four turnovers.  Looks like some line value with the Jayhawks only -7.

Keeping with the G5 vs Power Four theme, desperate Florida St. hosts Memphis, another G5 fav to crash the playoff party.  The Tigers are solid, but have yet to be tested, with convincing wins over FCS North Alabama and Troy.  Not sure they'll be tested THIS week either.  The Seminoles are 0-2, and it's an ugly 0-2. But, they're coming off a bye so they've had a couple weeks to fix what's broken.....if it CAN be fixed. Gotta see it first before I lay 7.

Cincinnati had won 16 straight over Miami-OH, before the Redhawks shocked the Bearcats last year, 31-24, as a 14 point dog!  Cincy is coming off a devastating home loss to Pittsburgh, as the Panthers rallied from 27-6 down, to win 28-27.  The Bearcats are only laying 2' here, but the Redhawks will have had two weeks to prepare for this one. 

It's homecoming week in Ann Arbor, as Michigan hosts Arkansas St.  Not impressed with the Red Wolves, but the Wolverines are laying 22' here, and I'm not sure they've hit bottom yet.  Plus, they have USC on deck.

LSU played like they were still suffering from a USC hangover with a lackadaisical win over FCS Nicholls.  They go to South Carolina this week to face the Gamecocks, who rebounded from a poor showing against ODU with a dominant win at Kentucky.  They held the Wildcats to a mere 183 total yards of offense, but will have their hands full with Garrett Nussmeier.  They also better find some offense of their own, having gained just an average of 272 yards their first two games.

I already mentioned how Illinois was the beneficiary of some costly mistakes committed by the Jayhawks.  The Illini were outgained by 52 yards in that comeback win, and now host Central Michigan, who were involved in one of the phoniest finals of the weekend.  The Chippewas outgained FIU by 60 yards, but committed six turnovers in a 52-6 shellacking.  With it being homecoming week for the Illini and with Nebraska on deck I see some value in the Chips +20.

Discussed Oregon earlier on this thread, how they haven't played as well as expected.  It starts up front on both offense and defense.  They're only averaging 3 yards a carry in the run game, and they're allowing 5.1!  I know they're not gonna have to play Ashton Jeanty every week, but this week they go on the road for the first time to play a physical Oregon St. team.  The Beavers put a 21-0 beatdown on San Diego St. this past weekend, and it wasn't that close.  The Beavs were dominant on both lines, outrushing the Aztecs 237 yards (4.6 up) to 72 (2.8), and controlled the clock for over 38 minutes!  In my book that makes them attractive as a 16 point dog! And I think it sucks that the Civil War, the Apple Cup and the Backyard Brawl aren't being played in late November!

Tempted to take Notre Dame -10 (off a huge upset loss) at Purdue, but the Boilermakers  are off an early bye and will have had two weeks to prepare.  Pass.

Utah's offense disappeared against Baylor after QB Cam Rising left in the first half with an injury to his throwing hand.  They SHOULD handle a bad Utah St. team anyway, but I'm not paying to find out.

As mentioned earlier, FIU isn't as good as their trouncing of CMU would indicate.  Next up is rival FAU at Boca Raton.  Not saying the Owls are good, but they've won the last six meetings by an average of over 32 points a game!  Keeping an eye on the line movement on this one.  

Ole Miss looks scary.  Not sure I wanna step in front of that offense, but Wake Forest could sneak in the backdoor on their homecoming game.  QB Hank Bachmeier lit up Virginia last week in a one point loss.

Jacksonville St. has looked hapless in their 0-2 start.  They're on the road again at Eastern Michigan, with the Eagles looking for revenge from a 21-0 loss a year ago. The line seems cheap at -2.

Kentucky rolled to an easy win over Southern Miss two weeks ago, but, as mentioned above, were stymied by the Gamecocks.  It doesn't get any easier this week with Georgia coming to town.  No way I'm stepping in front of THAT freight train.

Toledo was outgained by 126 yards in a deceiving win over UMass.  Wins are gonna be hard to come by for Mississippi St. They should get the win, not sure about the cover.

I like Indiana a LOT this year, but I'm not sure I like them in this spot.  UCLA wasn't at all impressive at Hawaii two weeks ago, but they're off a bye, and teams usually make their biggest improvement in their second game.......usually.

California is off a huge upset win at Auburn, San Diego St. is off a shutout loss at home to Oregon St. The Golden Bears could roll here, but there's no value in the line whatsoever, and with them kicking off the ACC schedule next week in Tallahassee could just as easy come up flat.

Ole miss will cover easy with that offense. They love to run up the scores. This is my favorite pick this weekend. I also love Purdue at home getting points. My son graduated from Purdue Global with a masters degree. He will goes to that game. I guessed I am not very far behind  from you of 40 years betting I am 35 years of betting on sports. Good luck to you sir ??

@Ilovefootballs

 Backatcha brother!  

Possible plays with current lines: 

TEXAS ST +1'

KANSAS -7

Arkansas St. +23'

Central Michigan +20

Tulane +13'

OREGON ST. +16

FAU -5

WAKE FOREST +23'

EASTERN MICHIGAN -2

San Diego St. +19

Great thread.  Must read each week.  

@ProgPool

 I'll try to keep it going.

Just bet on low star talent... but high quality individuals. 

Eliminating Kansas (home field situation), FAU (rivalry game) and EMU (two trash teams) from the list.  

@Me_Greatness_Me

 There's sometimes a lot of value in taking the Davids over the Goliaths. 

Wow!  Texas St. has swung from +2 to -2'!  Thus, this game goes from a possible play to a pass.  Number one rule in this biz is never, ever force a play!  Case in point: last week's Arkansas-Oklahoma St. game which went from Arky +7' (loser) to +10 (winner).

And Kansas has gone from -7 to -9, killing whatever value existed in that line. 

Another add to my potential play list:

Coastal Carolina -18 over TEMPLE - The Owls are hands down the worst temp in the country, and have committed 9 turnovers in two games.  Last season they were -20 in turnover/takeaway ratio.  Coastal has already proven they can beat bad teams with two blowout wins to start the season.

Wazzzup mah man GL  on your plays @Boisestateand8