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~~~~Week 2 Plays/Discussion~~~~

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by Atlanta:

JWheels, like the A&M pick. As you said, UT and Nebraska both looked poor last week. Unlike you, I would not play UT. They even lost a lot of their fan base last week. An early screw up (and they are capable of creating one) and it will be hard to tell who is the home team at Neyland. After week 0, I didn't think your Gators were the 2nd best team in the SEC east, but now I think they may be. Mullen has got to find a QB, and Franks isn't it.


I thought the BYU/Vols game was a toss up coming into the season, but by view of the teams I caught a line I can live with in basically a pk for the home team in prime time and I know im gonna get the home teams best effort and not looking ahead to anything, this is their season against an also underwhelming offense on the road..

I have been saying Franks isn't good enough for 3 years, but there's so many options around him and great coaching and play calling in that system there's no excuse for him anymore not to make plays..

 
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Posted: #27
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Nebraska (-4)
Tennessee (-3) 
Cincinnatti (+17)
Michigan(-21)
Texas A&M (+17.5)
Miami (-4)
 
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Posted: #28

Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:

Quote Originally Posted by bucknut5:

why tennessee my friend ? byu is solid club, and tenny kinda sucks it seems
If they had to go on the road I wouldn't feel good enough to pull, football is such a week to week and perception based sport for how we make our money doing this.. and when a teams stock is FULLY all the way at the bottom, as theirs is.. You get short lines like this in a night home game and KNOW you're gonna get their absolute best effort and no look ahead spot. Do I feel as good about it as other plays? of course not, but I like to take chances on teams in spots as this at home when I know they just simply aren't as bad as they played the week prior and are hearing it from the universe about how embarrassing they are.. and it's worked very well for me to go with my gut instincts in games exactly like this in the past, the perception dictates the reality of the betting public lines.

 

While true, the hard part is identifying if they have hit the bottom or they can continue to fall making them a great play week 3...

 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:


If they had to go on the road I wouldn't feel good enough to pull, football is such a week to week and perception based sport for how we make our money doing this.. and when a teams stock is FULLY all the way at the bottom, as theirs is.. You get short lines like this in a night home game and KNOW you're gonna get their absolute best effort and no look ahead spot.

This is not a short line, and how do we know it's rock bottom?  BYU was rated higher than UT last year, and to start this season, so you're not actually getting  line value based on the upset loss. 

As for rock bottom, you could have thought it was rock bottom after the 50-17 loss to Mizzou three games ago or after the the 38-13 loss to Vandy two games ago, but they followed that up with the loss to Georgia State.  And sometimes teams don't give their best effort after a game like that.  Often there's a hangover effect, and  there can be internal strife et cetera. 
 
 
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Posted: #30
Both very vaild points, and I agree.. Im fully aware that backing Tennessee can have no real great explanation to anyone, if losing as a 4 TD favorite to a program that didn't play football 10 years ago, I don't know how much more down the peg you can go if that's how you started everything off. At least the losses at end of last year came to league and bowl teams. This is merely a feel play (and one of many this week), Iv'e been fortunate over the years to have a feel for when teams are gonna show up and getting the feel from the odds and books to put myself in the best situation to win.

Appreciate the insight fellas, love to hear from all angles. 
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