week 3

did a few early BOL openers + a few more

Kan St +3

Ariz St -2

A&M -27'

Minny +3

Okie St +4'

leans   Wyoming   Auburn   WF   Kent St   Utah   C Michigan   VTech   Irish ??   Ga Southern ?    Miss St   Auburn ??    FIU ?

BOL this week boys ............

@bookieassassin

Same side w/ ASU -2  BOL brother.

Have you looked into Arkansas -23? Don’t know how Georgia Southern will be able move the ball w/ injured Qb.. backup can’t throw & run 1st game plan seems challenging.  

NOW WAY LB ...... 

Hogs off one of largest wins in program history, with Aggies on deck. GS gets QB back this week, and maybe RB King.

BOL this week buddy ............

OSU under 4 TDs at home is quite tempting. Will buckeyes come out pissed and try to put up 60?  Line seems short, which is also probably tied to Tulsa keeping it close vs an average Okie Lite squad 

K state a play even with starting QB out??

@steponaduck

My 2 cents is no, there’s quite a bit of difference in how one would power rate KSU with Thompson vs. Howard playing a full game at QB.  Is Thompson returning? I haven’t kept up on it.  BA must know something on Thompson.  

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/32203082/kansas-state-qb-skylar-thompson-indefinitely-knee-injury

he is certainly not coming back Saturday 

could be several weeks 

Ohio St - maybe so .... really tough for Tulsa, who expending a ton of energy vs Okie St ..... 'burst bubble' effect for OSU , or bounce-back? Players know they can win out and still make play-off I reckon, but maybe not good enough to win by 28?

     >> I might play Tulsa 1H / Buckeyes 2H .......... 

Kan St - thought you boys would figure that one out easily (TD wtf man ha)....7 point swing or so for QB? ...no way in hell I play them laying 4/5 - But now getting points in a MUST win game at home, vs a team with one P5 SU win already ???

              'play ON the team with the missing player 1st game, fade the next'.

Usually we see an INSPIRED effort in this spot ..... as players play harder to make up for the lost player. Huge QB variance too much to overcome? - maybe you bet.  UNDER maybe better play...... KSU 1H maybe better ?  ........

@bookieassassin

   I like that response.  Agree it's tough to beat two P5 teams on the road in the same year.  I'm not advocating a play on the road favorite either, it's a pass for me.  Makes sense to me that this is the spot they may rally behind the backup.  I just knew from memory that Thompson is worth a decent number of points over Howard if he's out for multiple weeks; will have to check #s from last couple years on that.

Based on this year's to-date results (*note both QBs in some thus far with the injury early in last week's game) and preseason PR #s as the starting point, I'd make this game PK this week and average line for all weeks so far this season as KSU -2.5.

Alright, 2020 #s, I have KSU on average as +4.9 points better than their full season rating in the 3 games Thompson played in; not terribly consistent though in those 3 games (big SU win vs. OU was a large cover for full season #s).  First start for Howard was vs. TCU and they did indeed rally for the SU win.  Excluding last 2 games (defense lost 2 key LBs and that was more of a contributing factor to the outcome than the QB play) and I have Howard's other starts at -0.5 points compared to the full season PR#.  If I include those last 2 dreadful defensive games, then all Howard starts drops to -3.9 points.

yep if you're the HC of a smaller school, with several games vs P5 teams - you don't want : a sell out injury risking effort / nor to fully open your offensive and defensive playbook. IF you play great in ONE game - rest don't matter (as much) - you're playing for a bowl / conference title.

Nevada

2019 beat Purdue - lost to Ducks 77-6

2018 beat Oregon St - lost to Vandy by 30

2017 lost by 10 at NW (+24) - lost to Wazzu by 40

ASU is a great one. Underachieved to date. BYU still celebrating with water- first W in 9 years over Utah. Hiii they were gutted this year. Inspired vs Utah but not a good team. 

also intrigued by ND laying 7. Maybe ND just isn’t that good- but I don’t buy it. Purdue is 5-7ish. Is this line 14 if Irish don’t kill themselves with stupid mistakes? 

WVU feels like somewhat of an auto play too. Everyone saw Vt take care of unc now GETTING points against a decent? WVU squad. WVU has OU on deck. Only thing that scares me a bit. 

@bookieassassin

 I must mention that  I have respected, followed your mentionings for years now and greatly respect your talents and ability to rationalize in your selection process! I I admire your ability and also have noticed your taking a little more time than justthrowing your earliest opinions and ideas out there and thereby showing me that you definitely respect the numerous "considerates" of successful selection process, now more than ever, covid protocalls etc.! Now at 80 yrs. of age and yet extremely looking forward to your superb threads and allowing me to continue the college football year with even a more positive belief in your analysis. thank you bookieassassin...you aRE THE BEST AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR SHARING AND GREALY INFORMED, THREADS! WE SHALL WIN AGAIN THIS YEAR, THANK YOU

@bookieassassin

the avilable # all over the world is georgia state -4 . pinny opened @ -2.5

@bookieassassin

Might have to join you on what I’m sure is meant to say Georgia Southern.  ….. I’ve got to keep an eye on the old curmudgeons at work, that’s bad enough, here too !??  

@bookieassassin

 please advise me, SIR! thank you

@winners1941

 I’ll add you to the old curmudgeon list to keep an eye on.    ….. he’s playing Georgia Southern +24.

@bookieassassin

 already understand the side is georgia southern and I bought the added .5 point so I am down at georgia southern +24, thank you SIR and aalso TD21, too.

@TD21

 very much appreciated TD21 . thank you

@bookieassassin

 80 years old last week ,me changed reading glasses to computer glasses as i check on you every 2-3 hours! with you and now even TD21, I feel like I am greatly,nicely covered! thank you from up in BOSTON! Let us cash these tickets again,always and together. Best of luck to all of us!

@bookieassassin

 great post SIR! thanks

@bookieassassin

 O K ! forgiven! honestly! thank you

@bookieassassin

Take care of yourself BA.  Need you healthy and dropping CFB capping knowledge.