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Week 4: Power ratings, picks, and write-ups

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Posted: #26
Write-Up #4: 

Stanford (-15) at Oregon State ... 0 units

Power ratings: Stanford (29th) at Oregon State (91st) = projected spread of -12.5

Stanford coming off a huge emotional win vs. Stanford. That's a reason to stay away. QB Kevin Hogan has been on fire lately: 12.0 + 11.6 ypa, 5tds 0 ints last 2 games. Hogan is questionable for Saturday with a leg injury. Don't bet on Stanford without him in the lineup. 

All Oregon State can really do is run the ball. Starting a dual threat true fresh at QB. 1.8 yds/clip vs. Michigan and 6.6 yds/clip vs. SJSU. Stanford's rush D has been average this year: 4.2/clip vs. Northwestern, 1.3/clip vs. UCF, 5.5 yds/clip vs. USC. Not crazy to project around 4.0/clip vs. Oregon State here. 

Stanford pass defense much better vs. two mediocre QBs: 4.2 def ypa vs. NW and 3.9 def ypa vs. UCF. Oregon State QB has not thrown above 5.4 ypa this season...324 passing yards through 3 games, 4 TDS 2 INTs. I think Oregon State is really going to struggle to score in this game unless they somehow catch Stanford off-guard in first half. 

This game is a stay away from me though I do like to continue to fade Oregon State. Power ratings say to stay away from this game as I do believe I have these teams properly rated. Remember Kevin Hogan is hurt right now he may or may not play Saturday. 

Verdict: Pass. No lean. 0 units. 
 
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Posted: #27
Write-Up #5: 

BYU at Michigan (-5.5)

Power ratings: BYU (32nd) at Michigan (20th) = projected spread of -8

Injury report: Michigan FS Dymonte Thomas is questionable. BYU starting NT Travis Tuiloma is out. 

BYU rolled up 132 rushing yards 5/clip vs. Nebraska but that was with Taysom Hill. Without him: 1.9/clip vs. Boise State and 3.9/clip vs. UCLA. Due to this loss, BYU has thrown the ball more with blue chip QB Tanner Magnum: 11 attempts with Hill vs. Nebraska, 28 attempts w/ Magnum vs. Boise and 47 vs. UCLA. BYU has no choice but to throw the ball against Michigan. Michigan's defense gave up 235 total yards vs. UNLV and I think BYU will be around 250-300. 

To me, that's the matchup of the game. Michigan's Jake Rudock has been awful this year.  Passing yard totals vs. Utah/OregonState/UNLV: 279, 180, 123. That's pitiful. Can't rely on him to get first downs or move the chains. I think BYU will be pumped for this game and be able to limit Michigan offensively. Michigan's offense rateds 86th nationally in scoring at 26.7/game. They can't be trusted. 

Looks like an under play for me. Projected total by my number of 46. If we can get a number in the high 40s-low 50s this will be an under play. 

Verdict: Pass. Under leanage if we get the right #. 
 
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Posted: #28
Write-Up #6:

Army (+2.5) at Eastern Michigan

Power ratings: Army (123rd) at Eastern Michigan (111th) = projected spread of -6

Took EMU for 2 units last week against Ball State - boy they were disappointing. 6/16 on 3rd down, 319 yards of offense against BALL STATE. QB Roback looked great vs. Wyoming but 48%, 5.0 ypa, 2 INTs vs. Ball State. EMU gained half of their rushing yards on one play. Pitiful performance offensively. 

Took Wake Forst for 1 unit LW vs. Army and I stand by the pick. Wake threw 3 INTs and limited Army to 240 yards of offense held them to 3.4/clip on 54 carries (impressive). 

****FWIW Wake's 2 INTs in their 3 last drives of the game really killed our chances of a cover. Army had a 1 play 9 yard TD drive off an INT which blew our cover. Just because you make a losing pick doesn't make it a bad one. 

 Army's option might find some success against a bad EMU run defense. EMU's rush defense vs. ODU, Wyoming, and Ball State (not exactly juggernauts): 229 rush yards, 430, and 278 (for 5.6/clip, 7.4/clip, and 5.4/clip respectively). Last time Army played EMU they gave up 513 rush yards for 9.5/clip in 2013!!!

However, Roback did have a great game vs. Wyoming (33o pass yards, 71%, 13.8 ypa) and he probably will vs. Army. Wake Forest and their putrid running game + OL was able to gain 171 on the ground for 4.9 clip (trust me they are bad - says a lot about Army's D). 

So how am I leaning this? It's pretty close because I think both offenses will be able to score points, but Army should do a better job of controlling the clock keeping EMU off the field and limiting their opportunities. I just trust a sure ground game over an iffy passing game (and EMU was iffy last week vs. Ball State). 

I am hoping to take the over here at a good number. EMU totals this year have been 72, 77, and 41. I have a projected total of 64 as my number. If we can see something favorable around this the over will likely be a play. 

Verdict: Slight leanage to Army but not much. Lean over the total so stay tuned when that line comes out. 
 
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Posted: #29
Write-Up #7: 

Nevada (+1.5) at Buffalo

Power ratings: Nevada (80th) at Buffalo (116th) = projected spread of Nevada -6

Buffalo overperformed last week vs. FAU who was without starting QB Jacquez Johnson. Scored 3 defensive touchdowns and only had 1 legitimate offensive TD drive entire game (2 plays, 62 yards). Pititful offensive performance for Buffalo last week. Only 290 offensive yards despite 34 minutes of possession. 5.0 ypa + 4.1 ypc. 3/17 on 3rd down. +4 turnover differential. 

Buffalo has been awful in penalties/game this year: #120 in the country. #124 in 3rd down defense. Nevada held A&M to 4/12 on 3rd down. Held Arizona to 2/13 on 3rd down. 

I think the stats are really skewing things Buffalo's way so far. Nevada is coming off 2 straight losses I think they are itching for a SU win. 

Under bettors last week made a great play on the Buffalo/FAU game. Buffalo is 2-1 on the under this year. Nevada 2-1 on the over but that was vs. A&M + Arizona. 

Projected total of this game is 53 by my number. 

I think we have a lot of options in this game. Buffalo TT under looking like a play. Under total looking like a potential play. Nevada TT over looking like a play. Nevada +2 or Nevada ML also a play. 

I really like this game. Waiting on the totals to be released.  Love this spot for Nevada. 

Verdict: Lean Nevada. Potential under leanage. 
 
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Posted: #30

WRITE-UPS

 
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Posted: #31
WRITE UPS
 
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Posted: #32
Write-Up #8:

Central Michigan at Michigan State (-26.5)

Power ratings: Central Michigan (88th) at Michigan State (4th) = projected spread of -30

Michigan State is 0-3 ATS this year. Central Michigan is 2-0-1 ATS this year also barely covering Monmouth by 0.5 points. 

Central Michigan 5/17 on 3rd down 29% vs. Syracuse but racked up 520 yards of offense 430 of those in the passing game (8.4 ypa). 

Pretty unimpressive game LW for Michigan State. 7 points off a defensive fumble recovery for a TD. Blocked 35 yard FG in 2nd Qtr. 

Michigan State drives in 2H vs. Air Force: TD, punt, punt, downs (didn't convert 3/2 or 4/1), punt. Air Force threw an INT 3rd/G on MSU 10 yard line. Air Force then answered with a 4 play 87 yard TD drive. 

Giving Michigan State benefit of the doubt being 4th in my powers but likely overrating them. 10-15 seems like a more fair range based on their play this season. However, CMU's offense is the worst they have seen this year with their tough schedule of Western Michigan (very good offense), Oregon, and Air Force (difficult triple option to defend).

No leanage here. Pass. Waiting for total number to possibly take under. Projected total of 54. 

Verdict: Pass. 
 
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Write-Up #9: 

Southern Miss at Nebraska (-22.5)

Power ratings: Southern Miss (106th) at Nebraska (43rd) = projected spread of -19

Nebraska with what I would consider an impressive game vs. Miami. Outscored Miami by 20 points in 4Q to force OT. Tommy Armstrong threw 3 INTs which kept this game close. Nebraska racked up 462 yards of offense. 

Armstrong only 47% passing but 6.9 ypa. Nebraska with 4.8 yards/clip on the ground. One of those INTs was on Miami 14 yard line at end of 1H. Nebraska with 3 TD drives of 75, 80, and 87 yards in less than 7 minutes of possession in 4Q. 

On the flip side, Southern Miss gave up 591 yards of offense LW vs. Texas State. Somehow, Miss State only racked up 442 yards of offense but 8/14 on 3rd down and only 22:00 of possession including 7.3 yards/rush. 

Bottom line is Nebraska will be able score points and move the chains in this game. The cover basically all comes down to the Nebraska defense. Southern Miss top 3 RBs 4.3 yards/clip vs. Miss State. 

I really feel South Alabama is a proper level of comparison for Southern Miss who Nebraska already faced - both in personnel and class. South Alabama only 332 total yards of offense were shut out in 1H. Easy cover for Nebraska.

I want to take Nebraska here. But can they be trusted coming off an emotional loss against a non-conference opponent who they could possibly take lightly?

Numbers all say to take Nebraska, but I don't like the spot. Confernce play coming up with @ Illinois and vs. Wisconsin. 

Verdict: Slight lean Wisconsin. Will likely pass. 
 
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Posted: #34
Forgot to update injuries for Nebraska: 

DL Vincent Valentine is a starter and doubtful. LB Michael Rose-Ivey is out. WR De'Mornay Pierson-El out for Saturday. Nebraska is banged up. I'm staying away from this game.

Looking at the total over the number is my suggestion with Nebraska's injuries. Just make sure the number is favorable and in the 50s. 
 
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Posted: #35
Write-Up #10: 

Texas State at Houston (-15)

Power ratings: Texas State (110th) at Houston (71st) = projected spread of -13

Houston coming off a bye week after their upset of Louisville. Held a bad Louisville offense to 395 total yards, 5/11 on 3rd down, 2.7 yards/rush, and generated 4 turnovers. Houston pretty average offensively but they were 50% on 3rd down +2/3 on 4th down.  Houston kicker also missed a 26 yard FG, Houston with a kickoff return TD. '

Texas State impressively with 4.0 yards/rush vs. a very good Florida State defense. Too much class though and they got blown out. Texas State is your stereotypical over team (3-0 in overs this year covering the over by an average 22.8 ppg) - they don't have much of a defense but they have an experienced OL and can run the football - 729 yards rush so far 6.1 yards/clip. 

Houston is coming off the bye. You can look at this that they could come out flat or they could come out ready for Texas State's rushing offense. 

Spread looks right. Looking to go over the total here if we can get something around 62. 

Verdict: Pass. Leaning over. 
 
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Posted: #36
Write-Up #11: 

Navy (-7) at UCONN

Power ratings: Navy (75th) at UCONN (114th) = projected spread of -4

Navy's defense wasn't projected to be any good this year - yet they managed to hold ECU to 3 touchdowns, 405 yards of offense, 6.4 ypa, and 3.8 yards/carry. However, they did give up 62% of 3rd downs (really bad #). 

On the flip side, it is jus so hard to prepare for Navy as they showed vs. ECU. Because when they can run the football (75 rushes for 415 yards, 5.5 yards/clip, longest run only 26 yards, 61% time of possession) they control the game and are able to break you down. 

UCONN is already a little prepared for this game after facing a bad Army team in Week 2. Navy has more class than Army but UCONN is still more prepared than the average team nonetheless. 

All of this said, UCONN is incapable of scoring or doing anything offensively. Yards/carry vs. Villanova + Army + Missouri: 2.7, 3.2, 2.3 respectively. UCONN does have a solid defense though holding Missouri to only one touchdown for the game - but they haven't faced an offense as good as Navy's yet. Got beat by Army last year by 2 TDs so it isn't like Navy can't cover this spread. 

Leaning Navy here just believe in their QB and think this team is on a mission. 7 points is coverable here. Line has been bet down from 10.5 because UCONN covered vs. a really really bad Missouri team. 

Going to continue to wait in the weeds on this one. Think Navy is getting undervalued. 

Verdict: Lean Navy. Snake in the grass. 
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:


Verdict: Slight lean Wisconsin. Will likely pass. 

Meant Nebraska. smh
 
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Posted: #38
Your assessment of Navy/UCONN is right on the money, and I just have a strong feeling that Navy is going to have a strong game, and they are on my short list of plays for exactly the reasons you mentioned. If you decide to take them, I will see you at the pay window, and the beer will be on ice waiting for us!
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #39
great work buddy ! keep it up ....Like your take on the Navy game also potential bit of a letdown UConn almost pulled that one off as you know decided to fake a FG for a big play instead of trying to tie it up and go into OT....Kids played so hard for 60 min I know Mizz is not really good but man HC has them playing hard.
 
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Posted: #40
UCONN only attempted 6 kicks last year from the 30-30 range. They don't have a kicker. I don't have a problem with UCONN faking it because the HC is respecting that he doesn't have a kicking game. He doesn't have confidence in his offense on 4th down - I also understand that logic that he likely won't be able to convert the 4th down conversion or score a TD in overtime. Only 4th and 4 at the time - if UCONN converts the 4th down he is a genius and if it doesn't work out he is an idiot. 

I don't really have a problem with trying to catch Missouri off-guard. It's actually a good spot to catch them off-guard when you think about it. 
 
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Write-Up #12: 

Virginia Tech (-8) at East Carolina

Power ratings: VT (24th) at ECU (61st) = projected spread of -7

QB Michael Brewer is out for VT for 2-6 more weeks. QB Brenden Motley impressive for VT vs. Purdue LW: 9.2 ypa 0 INTs. VT also 4.3 yds/clip on the ground. 

VT held Purdue to nearly 33% passing, 3.5 ypa + 2 INTs. However Purdue's top 3 RBs averaged 9 yards/carry with runs of 60 and 29 yards making up 66% of that yardage. Held Purdue to 2/15 on 3rd down...265 total yards.  

VT with a comfortable cover over Purdue by 22 points. 

ECU caught Florida in a bad spot - think UF was looking ahead to the Kentucky game. UF had a couple injuries on defense and still working things out offensively. ECU then got blown out in a bad spot vs. Navy. 

This is the type of matchup where I really have to throw out all of the previous stats out the window and just go purely off personnel. Remember, ECU with only 1 cover in their last 9 games of last season and with QB Carden down I don't think it's the same team. 

Injuries: VT starting LB Andrew Motuapuaka is out. 

Last year ECU put up 502 yards of offense (remember this was the game after VT beat Ohio State). Last year WR Cam Worthy shredded VT for 224 yards (he is gone as is WR Justin Hardy). Virginia Tech was able to shut down the run (3.0/clip) just Carden and the ECU receivers were lights out. 

Don't see the same game happening this year. Virginia Tech is on a different level. Not coming off that emotional win like they did vs. Ohio State last year. 

Don't love the #. Leaning Virginia Tech...really like their defense. ECU TT under looking like a play. 

Verdict: Pass for now. Official lean on VT. 
 
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Posted: #42
Total plays: 

Army/Eastern Michigan over 55.5 ... 1 unit
Nevada/Buffalo ... under 57 ... 1 unit
 
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Posted: #43
Write-Up #13: 

San Diego State at Penn State (-12) ... 1 unit

Power ratings: SDSU (109th) at Penn State (67th) = projected spread of -13.5. Current spread of -15

SDSU one of my fade teams this year I am 2-0 in fading them in my picks. I have gone into how bad they are at the QB position with Max Smith he has been abominable and is expected to be vs. Penn State's defense. SDSU with only 305 total yards vs. South Alabama + 5/16 on 3rd down. Only 3.7/clip on the ground. Penn State should limit South Alabama to 13 points or less. 

Let's give SDSU a TD and a FG just to be safe here. So that means currently most of you need 4 touchdowns to cover this spread. Penn State with 471 yards vs. Rutgers but 4/12 on 3rd down. Penn State didn't score a TD in 2H until late on a 2 play 70 yard drive. Also had a 75 yard run for a score. 

LB Jake Fely is questionable for SDSU. 3 key players out for SDSU with a suspension. 

Every team this year has scored 34-37 points vs. SDSU this season. Granted, Penn State has their inconsistencies, but they have scored 27 and 28 points their last 2 games...only 328 yards vs. Buffalo (ouch). 

I liked the -12 for 1 unit. I think the line of -15 now is pretty iffy. Not a terrible bet, but just know you are backing an offense that could make you pull your hair out. 
 
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Write-Up #14: 

Bowling Green (-2) at Purdue 

Power ratings: BG (72nd) at Purdue (77th) = projected spread of Purdue -2

Bowling Green enteres this contest 2-1 ATS on the year (barely covered vs. Memphis). Purdue was a 5 point dog to VA Tech lw and lost by 27. The Purdue passing game was pretty abominable vs. VA Tech, but it should be when you consider the talent edge VA Tech had at DL and DB in that game. 

Purdue hasn't been good offensively this year ... ypa's vs. Marshall, Indiana State, and VA Tech: 5.6, 8.0, 3.5. I think we probably have seen the best and worst Purdue can be this seaosn in terms of their passing game already. So while we have thought of Purdue as a great passing school thanks to Joe Tiller, they have actually beefed up their ground game. Total rushing yards of 184, 251, and 144 in their first 3 games, all with averages of 4+/clip including 5.0 vs. VA Tech. 

Bowling Green 19th nationally in yards/play...Purdue is 106th. In defensive yards/play, Purdue is 73rd, BG 109th. 

Purdue also with 6 players listed on the injury report as questionable, including a starting LB and starting OT. 

The numbers favor Bowling Green here and it looks like the spread is correct. 

Don't have a great read on this game to be completely honest (I often don't for these shootout types). 

Verdict: Pass. 
 
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Write-Up #15: 

Kansas at Rutgers (-12.5)

Power ratings: Kansas (121st) at Rutgers (70th) = projected spread of -16

As much as I would love to bet against Rutgers, their defense has been putrid this season. Gave up 8.0 yards/carry to Penn State's terrible OL + running game. Gave up 471 total yards to Penn State total. 

Memphis' defense is equally bad, and Kansas only managed 359 yards total and 8/20 on 3rd down. 

I'm a huge fan of fading Montell Cozart who I consider to be possibly the worst QB in FBS. They have failed to cover spreads in their first two games this year. 

Going to continue to look at this game. Just not a fan of Kansas they are hands down to me the worst team in the Big 5 this year. 

Verdict: Lean on Rutgers. I really like the #. Going to have to dig up more info to make a play and convince myself that I should put money on this game. 
 
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Posted: #46
These write-ups are awesome and informative. Thanks and keep up the good work! 
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Write-Up #10: 

Texas State at Houston (-15)

Power ratings: Texas State (110th) at Houston (71st) = projected spread of -13

Houston coming off a bye week after their upset of Louisville. Held a bad Louisville offense to 395 total yards, 5/11 on 3rd down, 2.7 yards/rush, and generated 4 turnovers. Houston pretty average offensively but they were 50% on 3rd down +2/3 on 4th down.  Houston kicker also missed a 26 yard FG, Houston with a kickoff return TD. '

Texas State impressively with 4.0 yards/rush vs. a very good Florida State defense. Too much class though and they got blown out. Texas State is your stereotypical over team (3-0 in overs this year covering the over by an average 22.8 ppg) - they don't have much of a defense but they have an experienced OL and can run the football - 729 yards rush so far 6.1 yards/clip. 

Houston is coming off the bye. You can look at this that they could come out flat or they could come out ready for Texas State's rushing offense. 

Spread looks right. Looking to go over the total here if we can get something around 62. 

Verdict: Pass. Leaning over. 

I would lean the under in this game. We don't run an "Air Raid" type offense anymore. No longer will you be seeing the 30 second touchdowns you saw back in the Case Keenum era. In addition, our defense is stout. I believe we led the nation in turnovers last year and by the looks of the Louisville game, this defense is still capable of creating turnovers. 
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by Pistol_Peter:


I would lean the under in this game. We don't run an "Air Raid" type offense anymore. No longer will you be seeing the 30 second touchdowns you saw back in the Case Keenum era. In addition, our defense is stout. I believe we led the nation in turnovers last year and by the looks of the Louisville game, this defense is still capable of creating turnovers. 

On the basis of Texas State's defense being terrible while having an incredible running game. Total is 71. I won't be playing that. 
 
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Posted: #49
Your write ups are really excellent work, McGuire.  Thank you.
 
 
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Keep up the amazing work effort. Your going to get hot and then we're gonna all cash. Love the depth of the write ups.
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