Week 4 YTD 36-19 +$3088.89

Let's hope those are 3 winners!

LSU -17 vs Auburn  $150 to win $135

As I predicted when I took LSU in the opener against TCU, this Tiger team has a special feel about it. I also predicted Mettenberger would be a much improved QB and that the new coach would work wonders for the LSU pass game. Well this QB is better than anything I have seen at LSU in a long time. Yes, he is better than the back-up Oakland QB who won a championship at LSU.

Nothing quite like an LSU football game in Baton Rouge on a Saturday night. 17 is a lot of chalk to lay in a rivalry game like this. Most award 3 points for HFA but I believe it's a td in this case so in my warped brain I'm laying 10. Mettenberger has thrown 9 tds in his first 3 games. Play action is now a staple of the LSU arsenal because they got themselves an OL that is big, bad and gaining experience. Jeremy Hill is blossoming into a stud RB. The skill position players for LSU are all home run threats.

The one thing an opposing team cannot do in Baton Rouge on a Saturday night is turn the ball over cause that crowd will go freaking ballistic. Well, Auburn turned the ball over 3 times against MS. I expect this LSU offense to come out firing on all cylinders, the D making some huge plays and Auburn getting a major as* whipping. GEAUX TIGERS!

Arkansas St -4 @ Memphis $220 to win $200

This line jumped out at me when I saw it Sunday night. My first thought was the Red Wolves must have lost their starting QB so I checked and that wasn't it. It looked so enticing that I figured the linesmakers knew something I did not. So I scoured the web searching for info and I found nothing. So instead of trying to figure why this line is not -10, I am just gonna accept it as one of those rare gifts from the boyz who run this sh*t.

How on earth is Memphis gonna hang with this explosive of an offense? I mean the Red Wolves put the big in BIG play offense. They can strike quick and score from anywhere on the field. Ok ok, I won't put a lot into 539 total yds vs Troy but they gained 422 at Auburn against a much more physical and quicker team. Their offense is multi-dimensional and can throw it as well as pound the rock.

Let's be honest here my friends. Memphis is a bad football team. Their previous games have a common denominator- turnovers and penalties. They lost to Middle Tenn. They made a sub par Duke team actually look good. For the life of me I just don't see how this game is not over by half time.  

Thank you sir for the kind words. Best of luck to you this week.

Couldnt have said it better myself. See you in Baton Rouge Saturday night, lol

Seeing a game there was on my bucket list so a few years ago I made it there. It is unbelievable. I suffered a severe case of whiplash from checking out the ladies.

That is a lot of chalk to lay when Troy can put up some points. I see it at -14 now. If it drops under 14 it might be a good play.

Quote Originally Posted by tideman:

on a lot of those myself   

Nice job thus far, and nice job on the thread, it was a very good read 

The saying ive always heard was sweating like a who re in church, but dumb works too 

Thank you for giving me the correct saying.

Good luck this week.

Thanks for the heads up on the injured QB. I can't see it going higher than 17.5. I always buy the hook when it's 17.5. Can't remember it ever mattering but I'd hate to kick myself if I lost instead of a push. Not sure it drops back but just wait until later in the week.

Well, my worst loss of the young season was week 1 when I was all over Fresno and was exactly right about their offense but their defense made me ashamed of my pick. I gotta admit, that one hurt. So now I saw a good value bet on them this week and figured I'd get my original money back plus a few bucks for my trouble.

IF, they do me right this time, I will roll some of that back onto the Red Wolves and make it my biggest play of the week.

I will be on Clemson. The back up Wolfpack QB blows chunks. No way they can hang with the firepower Clemson has. I vowed this year, I would not play road chalk on Thursday nights, but the chalkeater in me will not be denied on this one. Will post amount and write up manana.

Clemson -14 (bought the hook) @ NC ST $165 to win $150

Let me preface this by stating as much as I do not pay attention to line moves or consensus garbage or the boogey man, I do have a healthy respect for the "do not play road chalk on Thursday nights" theory. The thing about it is there is no "perfect" system for that theory because it does not happen EVERY time, just the majority. I believe this one will be the exception based on past performance and x's and o's.

Check out Boyd's stats last season against this Wolfpack D. Then check out his stats in his first 2 games. 32-53 over 60% along with 3 tds and NO picks. Even better is his YPA which is over 8 yds a pop. That tells me he isn't dinking and dunking, but throwing down field. The loss of their #2 WR does not worry me as good QB's can make any WR look good.

On the flip side, the NC ST back-up QB has no tds and 3 picks. I can see this Clemson D putting the fear of God into this young man. When new coaches come into a program that has struggled, they all do the same thing-go young. This Wolfpack team is very young. The problem with youth is adversity can make them tighten up a bit and make no mistake about it, they face some SERIOUS adversity tomorrow night. Another problem with youth is turnovers. Against Richmond they turned it over 4 times and at one point, were down double digits to those mighty Spiders. 

On paper, this has blowout written all over it. So for at least THIS Thursday night that road chalk jinx can kiss my chalkeating as*!

The Sports Network prediction:

Fresno St 31

Boise St 24

(now if I'm wrong, I can blame them for jinxing me)

Well bro, let's hope for both our sakes, the gambling gods are kind to us one more time. I have mucho respect for a few of the guys who are on the Bronco side and perhaps my thinking is clouded due to getting burned on the Rutgers game.

That said, this seriously reminds me of the Cowboy/Packer rivalry in the 90's. GB was the young team who just could not get past Dallas and continually lost. They came close a few times but no cigar. The Cowboys had to finally go to Lambeau for a game and their mystique just like the one Boise has, had the Pack -3 in their 96 SB year. Well, Favre and company took all those years of frustration out and laid a major as* whooping on Aikman & company and blew that Cowboy mystique to pieces.

I see the same scenario here. This is the biggest game I believe in many a year and possibly ever at Fresno. They have had to stomach being runner up to Boise always losing. I believe this will be the first sellout in quite a while and I expect the fans to be at a fever pitch for this one. However, that Bulldog D scares the crap out of me, but in Carr I trust so I am counting on him to have a career day against the worst Bronco D I have seen in quite a while. Best of luck my friend!