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WEEK 5

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Posted: #1

THURSDAY
Sept 28

101 CHICAGO
8:25 p.m. CBS
102 GREEN BAY  -13'
  * GB - @ Dallas next

103 TEXAS  -6
8:00 p.m.
104 IOWA STATE
  * Horns -  KSt > OU > Okie St
 * I- > OU

FRIDAY
Sept 29


105 MIAMI, FL   -5   
7:00 p.m.
106 DUKE
  * M-  @ FLA ST next
 
107 NEBRASKA  -9'
8:00 p.m. BIG 10
108 ILLINOIS
  * N - > Wisky > Ohio St

109 BYU  -7
8:00 p.m. CBSC
110 UTAH STATE

111 USC  -6
10:00 p.m.
112 WASHINGTON STATE
  * U- Oreg St
 * W- @ Oregon / last of 5 HG


SATURDAY
Sept 29

113 CHARLOTTE
12:00 p.m.
114 FIU  -9

115 RICE
12:00 p.m.
116 PITTSBURGH  -23 
  * P- GT / Cuse

117 USF  -24
12:00 p.m.
118 EAST CAROLINA
  * USF - Th game / BYE (can u believe this schedule?)
  * EC  - Sun game/ Temple

119 MEMPHIS  -1
12:00 p.m.
120 UCF

121 SYRACUSE
12:00 p.m.
122 NC STATE  -10'
  * N- @ Fla St / Louisville

123 EASTERN MICHIGAN
12:00 p.m.
124 KENTUCKY  -14
  * K- Fla / Mizzou

125 BALL STATE
12:00 p.m.
126 WESTERN MICHIGAN  -8'

127 CENTRAL MICHIGAN
12:00 p.m.
128 BOSTON COLLEGE  -8'
  * BC- CLEM / VT

129 AKRON
12:00 p.m.
130 BOWLING GREEN  -2'

131 OHIO  -6
12:00 p.m.
132 MASSACHUSETTS

133 BUFFALO   -5
12:00 p.m.
134 KENT STATE

135 HOUSTON  -10
12:00 p.m.
136 TEMPLE
  * H- TTech / SMU
 $$  see note about this game

137 MARSHALL
12:00 p.m.
138 CINCINNATI  -5

139 BAYLOR
12:00 p.m.
140 KANSAS STATE   -18
  * K- @ TX > TCU > OU

141 MARYLAND
12:00 p.m.
142 MINNESOTA  -7
 * Minny- BYE / @ Purdue

143 OHIO STATE  -26
12:00 p.m.
144 RUTGERS
  * O- UNLV / Terps

145 IOWA
12:00 p.m.
146 MICHIGAN STATE  -2
  * M-  ND / MICHIGAN

147 FLORIDA STATE  -10
12:00 p.m.
148 WAKE FOREST
  * F-  NC St / MIAMI

149 NORTHWESTERN
12:00 p.m.
150 WISCONSIN  -14
 * W- BYE / @ Neb
 *NW- BYE / Penn St

151 INDIANA
12:00 p.m.
152 PENN STATE  -20'
 * P- @ Iowa / NW


The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #2
153 NAVY
1:00 p.m.
154 TULSA  -1'
 * N- > AForce

155 CONNECTICUT
1:00 p.m.
156 SMU  -17
 * SMU >  @ HOUSTON

157 TEXAS ST
2:00 p.m.
158 WYOMING  -18'

159 COLORADO
3:30 p.m.
160 UCLA  -2' 
 * U- Tree / BYE
 * C- Wash/Zona

161 CALIFORNIA
3:30 p.m.
162 OREGON  -13'
 * O- @ Ariz St / Wazzu
 * C- USC / @ Wash

163 WASHINGTON  -25
3:30 p.m.
164 OREGON STATE

165 COASTAL CAROLINA
3:30 p.m.
166 ULM  -5

167 SOUTH CAROLINA
3:30 p.m.
168 TEXAS A&M  -6
  * T- Ark / BAMA

169 TROY
3:30 p.m.
170 LSU  -23
  * L- Cuse / @ Fla

171 NEW MEXICO STATE
3:30 p.m.
172 ARKANSAS   -18
  * A- Aggs / @ S Caro

173 SAN JOSE ST
3:30 p.m.
174 UNLV  -7

175 UTEP
3:30 p.m. CBSC
176 ARMY  -23

177 VANDERBILT
3:30 p.m.
178 FLORIDA  -7
 * V- @ Bama / Ga
 * F- @ Kent / LSU

179 GEORGIA  -2'
/3:30 p.m.
180 TENNESSEE
 
181 NORTH TEXAS
4:00 p.m.
182 SOUTHERN MISS  -9

183 SOUTH ALABAMA
4:00 p.m.
184 LOUISIANA TECH  -10

185 MIAMI, OH
5:00 p.m. NBCS
186 NOTRE DAME  -23

187 MIDDLE TENNESSEE  -6' 
7:00 p.m.
188 FAU

189 MISSISSIPPI ST
7:00 p.m.
190 AUBURN  -3

191 NORTH CAROLINA
7:00 p.m.
192 GEORGIA TECH  -6

193 CLEMSON  -8
7:00 p.m.
194 VIRGINIA TECH

195 AIR FORCE  -4
7:00 p.m.
196 NEW MEXICO

197 MISSISSIPPI
8:00 p.m.
198 ALABAMA  -27'
  * A- @ Vandy / Aggs

199 OKLAHOMA ST  -16
8:00 p.m.
200 TEXAS TECH
  * OSU- TCU / BYE

201 ARIZONA STATE
10:00 p.m.
202 STANFORD  -17
 * S- UCLA / @ Utah

203 NEVADA
10:00 p.m.
204 FRESNO STATE  -7

205 NORTHERN ILLINOIS
10:30 p.m. CBSC
206 SAN DIEGO STATE -12'

207 COLORADO STATE  -7
12:00 a.m.
208 HAWAII


OTHER GAMES:
Murray State at Louisville  -50
Maine at UCF  -28
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
I will destroy that South Florida line, with east Carolina playing on Sunday and not having as much time to recover, South Florida may score 84
Until the wallet is full.
 
Captain
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Posted: #4
I will destroy that South Florida line, with east Carolina playing on Sunday and not having as much time to recover, South Florida may score 84
Until the wallet is full.
 
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Posted: #5
REMINDER / RESET

YES......I know it's (slightly) confusing....
  * but I keep getting messages / seeing comments....that suggest.....many have no clue what to do with these numbers

ummm....."your lines were off"

OF COURSE THEY ARE OFF.......THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO BE OFF (SOME).....
 * got some news for ya'.....I could hit the opening numbers on the money if that's what I wanted to do........the point of that would what....to show off?....I reckon..........

Recall....many of these have to be adjusted AFTER this weeks games are played....you can do it in less than 15-20 minutes
 
eggzample: 

135 HOUSTON  -10
12:00 p.m.
136 TEMPLE
  * H- TTech / SMU

Looks too low don't it?.....so where did the 10 come from?

1)  I had this at 12'-13......because I think that UH is undervalued.....TU is overvalued
   *   rather than simply list the 13 or so.....
 
2)   I check around.....as maybe I'm wrong....ha
           * sounds ridiculous.....but possible

3)   Vegas (Gold Sheet)... says 9
          * better check a few more....

4)   Sagarin says 8' or so

5)   Bill C says 7.....Massey 3

  SO....I try to be objective.....after all ....I can't be THAT much smarter than everybody else........
  * and drop it to the lower key number....10

$$   I still use my 13....I just post the 10


post game adjustments :

6)   Temple has already gotten it's azz kicked....so we add  at least 2 points right off the bat.....

IF.....Houston beats the crap outta TT......we might add 2 more....making the line 14

IF......Houston covers.....things go as expected......still just 2

IF.......Cougs lose....look  like crap.....we subtract 1-2 points....meaning line is back to 10 or so 

This way......you get a fair / OBJECTIVE ...estimate of what the line 'should be'.........THEN you can make your own adjustments

IMO....it should be closer to 14....meaning I think I have a (possible) strong play here 

Line opens at 10 or less?....I have a strong play
 * opens at 17-18......I pass
 * opens at 14......I wait
 * at 12-13....I consider a small play 


This is why the BetOnline openers are so weak.....obviously they use public PR numbers....and make few adjustments....so no shock at all if this one opens < 10.....quickly rises to 14 or so.........  
  




The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #6
LEANS.....

strong >
USF.....Houston

solid >  Texas.....V Tech...NC St....Iowa....WF....Vandy.....N Illinois....Ball St...K St....BC....Wyo....Tulsa as dog....

maybe >  E Mich...NW...NMSU.....UNLV...N TX.....FAU 
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by ProPickers:

Where do u see all the ratings such as Bill C and Sagarins and gold sheet this early?? Keep doin what ur doing

Bill C
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
  * the S&P 'margin +'  / not bad.....pretty close for most teams ..useful as an extra reference

Gold Sheet you gotta buy
 https://www.goldsheet.com/product.php

Massey you can use his 'prediction' tool for later weeks
  * Sagarin you do by hand or if computer savvy set up a  spreadsheet I reckon 
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #8
right with you b a , thank you sir. light this card up, sir. great enlightenment, sir, I thank you. precious ,professional work. outstanding.
 
Prospect
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Posts: 107
Posted: #9
Bookie, thanks again for posting this every week.  bumping
 
Legend
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Posts: 35347
Posted: #10
Why am I still awake getting all excited for ULM next week.   Georgia too.  Gotta grab em early
 
Legend
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Posted: #11
Great spot to bet Okie state! Bounce back(frog style)?

Let down for Tech? They just beat the Cougars who won 16 straight at home prior.

Double whammy type spot.
 
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Posted: #12
awright ......


you boys are MY kinda people.................

subject to change....

one unit or so

116 Pitt  < 23'
117 USF < 24
135  Hou at <10
140  KAN St at <14   Bill S covered 11/row off bye / 21-10 off loss
149  NW >14.....watch out bias / I LIKE NW ha
156  SMU <17....why not?
158  WYO < 18   Bye next
194  VT  > 8/9....big at 10


smaller....

#109  BYU <6'
112 Wazzu at 7 or pass / ML or in-game
119 Memphis as dog  >3
121 Cuse > 10....or 1H
123  EMich at 14...or 1H
142  Minny <10
148  WF >10
151  Indiana > 21 or 1H
174  UNLV at 7/8
177  Vandy at 7 or pass
179  Ga <7
181  NTX >10 or pass
192  GT <5/6
199  Okie St <12/13......may drop to 10?
205  NI  > 12/13....or 1H maybe best
-
maybe.....

#107 Nebraska < 8' or so
129  Akron <3 fav (BG covered 9/row)
137  Marshall at 7 or pass
166  ULM <10....off 2 OT road W over rival tho
171  NMSU >21....maybe 1H


My focus this week will (looks like) will  be on teams that FINALLY have a shot for a nice W......like Pitt.....or BYU.....Nebraska
  * probably will stay away from big games .....kinda like the Hokies tho........these weeks between non-conf and conf action can get weird anyway...usually this is a time to FADE the 'hot' teams...as they get tired of beating up on people /  struggle to cover the inflated numbers......and maybe look to play on...... teams that have been taking azz whoopins /  getting tired of that + extra value maybe ................. 

Back late in the morning.....   
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #13
forgot......better check injuries ......

# 125 Ball St look appealing as an 8+ dog at WMich ?....

QB / RB +  4-5 more starters are hurt......they woulda beat WKU otherwise......just a great road dog 
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
  Looking at a few in more detail this morning.
 
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Posted: #15
Thanks BA, much appreciated as always!
 
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Posted: #16
BA

You do GREAT work - amazing stuff.

I am going to DM you - have a couple ideas/thoughts would love to discuss with you - a possible opportunity as I have access to tons of outs with THIN juice.


 
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Posted: #17
BA,   Nice week.   What do think of the new feature on Sagarin??  Do you use it for lines, totals, or TT's??
 
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Posted: #18
Great work, BA!  
LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:

Why am I still awake getting all excited for ULM next week.   Georgia too.  Gotta grab em early




I would love to see ULM under a TD next week....i was thinking -10








 
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Posted: #20
mr. b.a without a doubt you have created an outrageous formula for the art of college football. thank you. with you all the way 
 
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Posted: #21
last week 11-5-1
 *  drop ties

44-25 overall
  * one unit    18-11
  * smaller     26-14 


ONE UNIT

BYU -3
Kan St  -13'
NW  +15
Air Force    P
Wyoming  -17'
S Caro  +10'
Vandy  +10'


smaller

Nebraska  -6'
Memphis  +3
Houston  -13'
Pitt  -22
Wake  +10
ULM  -9
UNLV  -7'
B College  -7'
N Illinois  +13'


waiting......NTX....VT....GTech ...NMSU.....Marshall.....E Mich...Pitt....CUSE...AKRON


All BetOnline  or 5Dimes......

Back later boys.....BOL this week.....................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #22
I am really loving WF +anything over 7. First road game for Blackman, Noles without their best WR Tate and best LB Thomas. Wake will play the same quick pass O that FSU can't or won't stop with that soft cushion D. On D, Wake will keep them in front and force them to drive the field and score TDs, which FSU can't with the worst OL in P5 (plus penalty prone). Also, Miami on deck.

Wake with the upset, or barely losing a very, very tight one IMO.
 
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Posted: #23
The more I look at Memphis and who they have beaten so far ... La Monroe .... ( No Def ) .... UCLA .... ( No Def ) .... S ILL ...( FCS School ) ... this team may be a bit over rated ... Realize UCF  only has a decent win vs Maryland but Memphis playing their first road game may struggle ???

Thoughts bro ... always appreciated

GL bro !! Much respect !!
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

The more I look at Memphis and who they have beaten so far ... La Monroe .... ( No Def ) .... UCLA .... ( No Def ) .... S ILL ...( FCS School ) ... this team may be a bit over rated ... Realize UCF  only has a decent win vs Maryland but Memphis playing their first road game may struggle ???

Thoughts bro ... always appreciated

GL bro !! Much respect !!

UCLA.....would be favored  by 10 over the Maryland team UCF beat.....
     *  tough to tell how good UCF is.....but this line should be closer to pick-em 

YOU KNOW......Upside.....that I don't do this like most of these boys here...........I establish an IDENTITY for a team....starting with LAST YEAR'S TEAM.....or even earlier if possible.....then factor in the changes.........that  way I  don't have to go BACK AND FORTH on these teams each week.......because I KNOW WHO THEY ARE

  >>  VANDY stinks !!....Wake OVERRATED !!!!.....Clemson OVERRATED OMG !!!!.....Houston sux !!!!.....TT the real deal !!!!.....Okie St not that good !!!!!!!!...............

UCF?....an unknown really at this point....so only a small play  
  * beating a 'fragile' team with a really bad 3rd string QB?.....doesn't impress me a whole lot..............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:

BA,   Nice week.   What do think of the new feature on Sagarin??  Do you use it for lines, totals, or TT's??

some.....not much because work a week ahead anyway........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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