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Week 5 Money

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Posted: #126
Uclalumnus---

Yep, it's a huge tout play so all those followers have poured money in on USC , I don't worry about that stuff but wish I had the better line, I don't get every line move right, about 9/10, many of our quality cappers here at covers like USC as well, I disagree, bring on the game

Best of luck

.
 
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Posted: #127
Kevin--

More of a spot play, usu used alot last week & San Jose didn't bother attending their game @ minny so they should be well rested, 10 pts is generous, my line is 6ish so I'll take a stab

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Posted: #128
thx!
since u dont make too many plays
i appreciate any play u give here, because i know u r not throwing picks there and there. its u r style! but also i know how u are serious!
 
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Posted: #129
Haha, I would hope we are all serious when betting money Kevin

I had Utah st last week against USC, spot favors San Jose here, just hope the Spartans can muster up enough stops against Chuckie & Co

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Posted: #130
SC money coming into Vegas as game day nears is a common occurence. Love ASU here anywhere from 3-6. There is no doubt theur D is Top 5 in the country but the offense is truly awful on the field and off with the play calling. They look like the college version of the Steelers...completely discombobulated.

Regarding weather previously discussed in the Oregon game. The rain is a little unnerving when considering the Over. What really freaks me out is the wind blowing at 25-30 mph. Both teams are going to have to rely on the short routes to keep the D honest. Still think a lot of points are scored but is now much more in doubt.

The wind is also why I might take the 10 with U of A in Washington. The Cats will run, run, run, and run some more. I think Ka'Deem Carey is feeling a little slighted with all the talk about Sankey and other backs around the country. I like him to go for 175+.
 
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Posted: #131
Quote Originally Posted by uclalumnus:

AZ St down to -3.5.....some serious SC lovers out there...

Hope to get -3 by gametime.


Does Dr. Bob steam lines like RAS? Curious as he has them as a play...

Usually it's RAS that causes such a swift line move. That said, I am saddled in with -6 at my book. Down to -4 now...



 
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Posted: #132
Good luck BTW.


Really like the SJSU play. Pretty good spot play with Utah St in the letdown angle after a dejecting loss. I just cant see them getting up for SJSU when JUST having USC on the ropes...

ECU is a good play. Instate bragging rights game. ECU is usually up for this one. It's one of their Superbowl games. I like the over in this one. Two awful defenses. Offenses move like butter. Just cant bet against my Heels here (as a superstitious loyalty thing).

Good reads. Keep it up.
 
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Posted: #133
Wahoo- what do you think of ML parlay play on Idaho and UTSA?

Looks like a strong play but haven't locked in yet - $100 wins $674

GL this week!
 
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Posted: #134
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

Kevin--

More of a spot play, usu used alot last week & San Jose didn't bother attending their game @ minny so they should be well rested, 10 pts is generous, my line is 6ish so I'll take a stab


gotta disagree with you on this one... watched the majority of that game... they were fighting until the end... but they lost Noel Grigsby about half way through the game, and just didn't have the firepower to hang with Minnesota...

Utah State has a lot more firepower... people are thinking they left it all on the field at USC and will have nothing left... i think that's a bit cliche... they knew going into that game they were most likely going to lose, and when it's all said and done, they gave USC all they could handle, and came up short... but they have no reason to hang their heads...

but the fact is, this is a far more important game, since it's the conference opener, on the road, and on Friday primetime... if SJS had Grigsby, I would have laid off... but he is their best WR, and Fales' go-to guy... without him, i simply don't think they have the firepower to hang...

we'll see... not happy to be butting heads with you, but it happens!
 
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Posted: #135
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

Uclalumnus---

Yep, it's a huge tout play so all those followers have poured money in on USC , I don't worry about that stuff but wish I had the better line, I don't get every line move right, about 9/10, many of our quality cappers here at covers like USC as well, I disagree, bring on the game

Best of luck



most cappers need to read this and understand this way of thinking... too many see a line move against them and go into a panic... tout plays will move a line 2-3 points in the middle of the weeek... but i'll go head-to-head with any tout, so i couldn't give a garbage what they play... 
 
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Posted: #136
Wahoo talk to be about this BYU Middle Tennessee St under 31.5 first half. I love that play. Watched them vs Utah last week and T Hill cant throw worth a sh*t. BYU has a pretty good defense tho and an okay run game. I dont know sh*t about Midd Tenny but I have to assume they will have a tough time putting up points today. They played Utah pretty tough last week at home and the first half was VERY low scoring. I think the same happens here where BYU rushes a bunch and throws according to how the run (playaction passes and such). I think its a great chance this is a 14-3 score at halftime
 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:



most cappers need to read this and understand this way of thinking... too many see a line move against them and go into a panic... tout plays will move a line 2-3 points in the middle of the weeek... but i'll go head-to-head with any tout, so i couldn't give a garbage what they play... 
for me the key number is 3.5 in usc game it can go to 5 6 4
as long it does not reach the 3.
 
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Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by kevinkim:

for me the key number is 3.5 in usc game it can go to 5 6 4
as long it does not reach the 3.

there's no way it will go to 3... if it were going to 3, it would be there already... i would be surprised to see a 3.5, personally... and you can bank on the fact that the touts will be middling their play by taking ASU (-4) or (-3.5) anywhere they can get it, bringing the line back up to (-4.5) at closing time...
 
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Posted: #139
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:


there's no way it will go to 3... if it were going to 3, it would be there already... i would be surprised to see a 3.5, personally... and you can bank on the fact that the touts will be middling their play by taking ASU (-4) or (-3.5) anywhere they can get it, bringing the line back up to (-4.5) at closing time...

People don't middle just because it crosses key numbers. That's lame.  So what if you get a middle of ASU -3 and USC +7 if you think USC would win outright and they do? 

 
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Posted: #140

Thoughts on Okla-ND, Arz-Wash, Wisky-OSU?

Liking Georgia, SJSU, UTSA, NC State.

Leaning to Wash ST.

 

 
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Posted: #141
Quote Originally Posted by composite:

People don't middle just because it crosses key numbers. That's lame.  So what if you get a middle of ASU -3 and USC +7 if you think USC would win outright and they do? 



big money sharp bettors frequently hit games at the other end of a big line move, after they hit the other side out of the gate... this happens far more than you can imagine, clearly!  particularly, touts do this RELIGIOUSLY!  this is their bread and better, in fact... they don't rely on their bets to win, in order to make money... they make their money by getting down on both sides of a game at the best possible lines on either end... they move the line... they tout the game so others move the line... then they bet the other side after it has moved as far as its gonna move... they make their money off of their clients, and the occasional game that hits their middle...

think about it: touts aren't gamblers... they don't need their plays to hit... they give one side to half their clients, and the other side to the other half... they win either way, and if the middle hits, JACKPOT!
 
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Posted: #142
GREAT picks last night Wahoos....
I too am a half time hound!! Luckily those saved me last week and I'm on a helluva halftime run .. But it's mostly hedges .. What do you think about SJSU tonight? You like them 1st half as well as whole game? Thanks man, and keep up the great work 
 
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Posted: #143
Lucrative --- think Ecu has a chance, I'd make unc -3.5 on neutral so I have line at 7, I'll take the extra points

Ice--
I was being a smartass about them not showing in Minny, I knew the time slot didn't favor them but still expected them to beat the Gophers, hopefully someone else can step up tonight @ home & keep the game tight, I think they can, best of luck ICE

trey--
I like that under, haven't added yet, may not

.
 
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Posted: #144

Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

they match up better defensively than Air Force did but keeping pace with Wyoming is tough, I personally feel a line of 7 would be more fitting, I saw above 10 early and now I'm seeing 11.5 and 12 in most shops, hate to talk anyone out of a play, you know that isn't my style, I don't find value at 11.5 or 12 for the Pokes



Yeah.  It didn't feel like the right side, so I'll leave it alone.  If they win by 30, they win by 30.  You've still won me thousands over the years. 

Decent Pitt/UVa tickets at Stub Hub for $1.  They might literally not be worth the cardboard they're printed on. 

 
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Posted: #145
Bill--
I think OU is the better team but stoops as road chalk makes me hesitant, bell throws decent & I think Dame may struggle to score, think it's a slugfest with slight edge to OU, I'm not laying 3.5 though, OU 20-17

Washington should win & prob cover, 40-27

No opinion on wisky/osu really, if I gave one I'd be lying, no clue there

UTSA is better than Houston, I'll prob be on them

Nc st may struggle to score more than 31 so I have no interest laying that number

I took a flyer with the Spartans tonight, if there is ever a time for them to compete then tonight should be it

Best of luck

.
 
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Posted: #146
Does SJSU lack of a run game worry anyone ? 
 
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Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by TreyInventor:

Wahoo talk to be about this BYU Middle Tennessee St under 31.5 first half. I love that play. Watched them vs Utah last week and T Hill cant throw worth a sh*t. BYU has a pretty good defense tho and an okay run game. I dont know sh*t about Midd Tenny but I have to assume they will have a tough time putting up points today. They played Utah pretty tough last week at home and the first half was VERY low scoring. I think the same happens here where BYU rushes a bunch and throws according to how the run (playaction passes and such). I think its a great chance this is a 14-3 score at halftime


won't be surprised if byu puts up 28 alone by half...they are up there with oregon in terms of plays per game / seconds between snaps. 
 
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Posted: #148
Maine--

I hate to talk anyone out of any lean because I may be wrong but you asked, haha, I may end up on the other side depending on a few things I'm waiting on, found a little inside track with that one :)

.
 
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Posted: #149
wahoooooooooooGL
 
 
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Posted: #150
utsa will be a play? u still waiting on something to make this play?

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