Posted:
#1
2-1
Previous performance has no impact on future events.
I found myself repeating that quite a few times this week in an effort to somehow convince myself to get down on Hawaii. Let’s face it, gone are the days of the up and down the field, high-flying Warrior teams. And, quite frankly, it appears that Hawaii blows goats. However, there is just too much value in this line for me to pass up. I think when you look at the Mountain West coming into the season, you have a few upper tier teams then everyone else after that would appear to be somewhat even. That’s probably the main reason for even looking into this game is the fact that I can’t get past how these two teams on paper at least, appear to be a bit more even than this line suggests. Back on the topic of Hawaii, the results this year have been eye-opening and not in a good way. They own losses of 47-0, 69-24, and 49-10. Yup, they suck. However, those losses have come at the hands of BYU, Nevada, and USC. Obviously, the BYU and USC defenses explain themselves (I think both are top 35), and the Nevada defense isn’t all that great but the tempo at which they play of offense sort of masks a weakness with the team, so it’s not all that comparable. So, while Hawaii limps in here 1-3, not having a single win over a FBS opponent, the perception of how bad Hawaii sucks is truly inaccurate when you match them up with this week’s opponent. San Diego State brings in the 84th ranked defense (out of 120 teams). They yield 434 yards per game, an average of 6 yards per play. Definitely some stats that just aren’t good, and more importantly, this will be Hawaii’s easiest test to date, also noting that they haven’t played as bad of defense as this one yet this year. Now, as for San Diego State, they’re pretty much the opposite as Hawaii. They’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the conference to date, and the perception of this line being so high is based on the fact that they have been able to put up some points. But against who? To date, they’ve played Fresno State where they scored 40 (sorry, I am not impressed with Fresno at all as I’ve already covered their “close” win at Oregon which just wasn’t close at all and then the debacle against Tulsa where the final score is not really all that indicative of how the game played out ie. two interception returns). They played San Jose State and Washington, probably some formidable opponents, but teams whose records appear to be a bit on the overrated side given some of the situational spots they walked in to. The other games? North Dakota and Army (they were only favored by -5 against an 0-4 Army team!!!). In fact, the last half of football this San Diego State team has won came three weeks ago in the 1H of the game with North Dakota. That’s five straight halves of football this team has lost, yet they find themselves as more than a three touchdown favorite. Schemes/Offense/Defense, both teams are fairly familiar with what the other wants to do. The Hawaii offense has looked its best when its throwing the ball and San Diego State can’t stop anything through the air. San Diego State isn’t all that familiar with the constant Hawaii defense on the edge and how physical they are with wideouts, so I would expect a lot less of the short passes and possibly a SDSU turn to the running game a bit more, which in turn leads to Hawaii having eight, sometimes nine in the box. Hawaii extra day of prep, San Diego State look ahead to homecoming next week? Hawaii should bounce back after being shut for the first time in 182 games (also fewest yards since 1996). Those types of games challenge teams. Look at the bright side, it can’t get any worse.
Hawaii +21.5
GL
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