Week 6 observations and Week 7 ponderings

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It takes longer than three minutes but you are the Chris Berman of  NCAA football

Time to fine-tune my playlist possibilities, starting with the weeknight games and Saturday's early games:

Coastal Carolina at James Madison (-8, down from -9') - Initial lean was on the Dukes, but I'm not crazy about these weeknight games. The line move concerns me, and I've already lost twice betting on Coastal. Not sure I wanna play against them here. Pass.

UNLV at Utah St. (+19) - The Aggies can score behind QB Petras, RB Faison and WR Royals, but that defense is atrocious. If they can somehow hold the Rebels under 40 they should cover.  The biggest question is UNLV's mindset after a tough overtime loss to Syracuse.  Still on my radar....for now.

Wisconsin at Rutgers (-2') - I'm backing off the Scarlet Knights.  They were outgained by 222 yards in a win against UDub, and were completely shut down at Nebraska. The Badgers' two losses were against 'Bama and at USC, but backup QB Braedyn Locke is coming off his best game in the rout of Purdue. Pass.

Washington at Iowa (-2') - Still leaning Hawkeyes here, slightly. Long road trip for the Huskies, and there's value in the line based on last week's results. RB Kaleb Johnson should rebound after being shut down at Ohio St. But Iowa's defense isn't what it's been in years past.  Will Rogers could torch this secondary.  

Miami OH at Eastern Michigan (+2) - The Redhawks can be excused for losing to Northwestern, Cincy and Notre Dame, but they needed overtime to beat a bad UMass team and were handled fairly easily at Toledo last week.  They're not that good.  Neither is EMU, but they're 4-1 SU and 4-0 ATS, and off a bye. I'm liking the home dog here.

Saturday afternoon games:

Old Dominion at Georgia St. (-1') - Third straight road game for ODU, while the Panthers were off last week, their second bye in the last three weeks.  Which Georgia St. team will show up? The one that upset Vanderbilt in Week Three, or the one that was throttled by Georgia Southern in Week Five? Cautiously backing the short home fav.

Stanford (+23', down from -24) at Notre Dame - If the Cardinal can just hang on to the football then they can hang in this game. But they've turned it over seven times the last three games, and I'm not sure who will be behind center.They made back to back trips to the East Coast, and after a home loss to Va. Tech, now hit the road again for this one.  Having said that, the Irish are a banged up team and their bye couldn't have come at a better time. Was leaning Stanford initially but I'm gonna let this one go.

California at Pittsburgh (-3, down from -3') - Panthers are 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS, with three of those wins because they've owned the fourth quarter. This is a confident team, and they're facing a Cal team that has to shake off blowing a 25 point lead in a devastating loss to Miami. That, plus they have to travel to the Eastern time zone for the third time in five weeks!  I'm liking Pitt here.

Arizona at BYU (-3, down from -4) - The Cougars are also 5-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, and they're off their bye week. This was a lean at -4 and might be a play at -3, although the Wildcats have covered seven of their last eight as a dog.

Saturday evening games:

Arkansas St. at Texas St. (-13', down from -14') - Pretty sure the Bobcats haven't forgotten the 77-31 beatdown the Red Wolves administered a year ago, and they've had an extra two days to prepare for this one, after trouncing Troy last Thursday. It's Texas St. or nobody in this one, and the line drop is icing on the cake.

Washington St. (-3') at Fresno St. - Both teams are off a bye. I'm not impressed with the Bulldogs. They were outgained by 140 yards in a win at New Mexico and were crushed at UNLV a week later. In those two games they allowed nearly 400 rushing yards at almost six yards a carry. John Mateer has to be licking his chops!

Ole Miss at LSU (+3') - The Bayou Bengals played their best game of the season two weeks ago and are off a bye. The Rebels rebounded from their upset loss to Kentucky with an easy win at South Carolina, but hitting the road again at Death Valley, at night, will be no easy task.  The home team in this series is 10-1 ATS.  Gotta like the home dog here.

Ohio St. at Oregon (+3, down from 3') - The slightest of leans to the Ducks in the biggest game on the slate this weekend.  Obviously I liked it better at +3', and I doubt I wind up playing this one, but I will say that there is great potential for chaos in the BIG this weekend with the Buckeyes and Penn St. headed to the West Coast.

Vanderbilt (+13, down from +13') at Kentucky - The Wildcats had a bye last week after stunning Ole Miss the week before, but the Commodores had the biggest upset of the season last week, shocking Alabama, 40-35, and there was nothing fluky about it. Vandy never trailed, had an answer every time 'Bama got close, and had over 41 minutes of possession time. The 'Dores are now 3-0 ATS as double digit dogs, with two outright wins and a double overtime loss at Mizzou. How can you NOT like them here?

Kansas St. at Colorado (+3', down from +4) - Both teams won impressively two weeks ago, and both had a bye last week.  The Buffs seem to be getting better by the week, and K-St. hasn't played their best ball away from Manhattan, but I don't like the line drop.

Boise St. at Hawaii (+20') - Broncos are playing three times zones away from their blue field, and left for Honolulu a day earlier than normal to get acclimated.  Lost in their 62-30 rout over Utah St. was that they allowed 372 yards passing to Spencer Petras and 507 yards total. Ashton Jeanty may have to play all four quarters in this one. 

Incredible write ups

@The007

Laying off Utah St. Just can't trust that defense, and UNLV still has a lot to play for. 

Very nice to the point write-ups 

I very much appreciate your thoughts on these games!  Much appreciated, and good luck this weekend! 

the under is  rock solid in this game by the data.  

Arkansas St. at Texas St.

Boise,

Thanks for the terrific knowledge

@Wizerguy

@TDHCentral

spottie2935

@umgmu

Thanks people! Beat of luck this weekend!