Finally had a great Saturday as the underdogs started to come through hopefully signaling the end of the squares making money for the season.
From a very brief scan of the card, some preliminary leans:
Wyoming +10 @ Utah State (potentially huge play)
Iowa +2.5 @ Penn State
Pittsburgh @ Rutgers +8.5
San Jose State +12.5 @ BYU
Marshall +15 @ Central Florida
Michigan @ Northwestern +3.5
I will absolutely be on Wyoming after watching Utah State collapse yet again on Friday night @ BYU. That loss came on the heels of blowing a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter to Colorado State a week earlier. This team's confidence has to be absolutely shot and Wyoming has looked good on the road this year. The Cowboys will be coming off of a bye, as well.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD: 19-16-1 (+7.5 units)
Week 5: 7-3 (+9.4 units)
Finally had a great Saturday as the underdogs started to come through hopefully signaling the end of the squares making money for the season.
From a very brief scan of the card, some preliminary leans:
Wyoming +10 @ Utah State (potentially huge play)
Iowa +2.5 @ Penn State
Pittsburgh @ Rutgers +8.5
San Jose State +12.5 @ BYU
Marshall +15 @ Central Florida
Michigan @ Northwestern +3.5
I will absolutely be on Wyoming after watching Utah State collapse yet again on Friday night @ BYU. That loss came on the heels of blowing a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter to Colorado State a week earlier. This team's confidence has to be absolutely shot and Wyoming has looked good on the road this year. The Cowboys will be coming off of a bye, as well.
Doubt Persa will be 100%....plus DR may have a day against that NW D.
Iowa/PSU will be close either way, Iowa is the better team here.
After watching Rutgers yesterday, I don't see how they stay within 10-15 of Pitt.....we'll see.
Yeah Persa's status will obviously play a key role, but Colter has been a more than serviceable replacement. Michigan has been cruising along at home but has yet to test itself on the road. My lone concern is that Northwestern was treating the Illinois game as its biggest of the season and lost in heart-breaking fashion. Probably a no play.
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Quote Originally Posted by cherokee10:
Doubt Persa will be 100%....plus DR may have a day against that NW D.
Iowa/PSU will be close either way, Iowa is the better team here.
After watching Rutgers yesterday, I don't see how they stay within 10-15 of Pitt.....we'll see.
Yeah Persa's status will obviously play a key role, but Colter has been a more than serviceable replacement. Michigan has been cruising along at home but has yet to test itself on the road. My lone concern is that Northwestern was treating the Illinois game as its biggest of the season and lost in heart-breaking fashion. Probably a no play.
why do you focus on dogs, especially so early...in november dogs (with the exception of those teams not motivated by the bcs or nc race) will rule, but now, what is your motivation. maybe its your specialty.
i don't publish often here, but i am 20-9 taking favorites through the first 5 weeks. i guess you could say i focus on mismatches. i know that works in sep, but for late oct and nov, i will have to change my approach. thanks in advance for the perspecitve.
LonghornHoosier
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why do you focus on dogs, especially so early...in november dogs (with the exception of those teams not motivated by the bcs or nc race) will rule, but now, what is your motivation. maybe its your specialty.
i don't publish often here, but i am 20-9 taking favorites through the first 5 weeks. i guess you could say i focus on mismatches. i know that works in sep, but for late oct and nov, i will have to change my approach. thanks in advance for the perspecitve.
why do you focus on dogs, especially so early...in november dogs (with the exception of those teams not motivated by the bcs or nc race) will rule, but now, what is your motivation. maybe its your specialty.
i don't publish often here, but i am 20-9 taking favorites through the first 5 weeks. i guess you could say i focus on mismatches. i know that works in sep, but for late oct and nov, i will have to change my approach. thanks in advance for the perspecitve.
I don't exclusively play dogs...Had VA Tech yesterday though that worked out rather poorly. As you said, many of the big favorites cover early in the season. When the schedule turns to October, however, and conference play begins in earnest, the disparity in talent between teams often diminishes and more "square" bettors continue to lay big points with the "name" teams despite the increased intensity of conference play.
I also mainly play spots, so the on-paper abilities of teams does not matter nearly as much to me as does motivation and public perception.
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Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
why do you focus on dogs, especially so early...in november dogs (with the exception of those teams not motivated by the bcs or nc race) will rule, but now, what is your motivation. maybe its your specialty.
i don't publish often here, but i am 20-9 taking favorites through the first 5 weeks. i guess you could say i focus on mismatches. i know that works in sep, but for late oct and nov, i will have to change my approach. thanks in advance for the perspecitve.
I don't exclusively play dogs...Had VA Tech yesterday though that worked out rather poorly. As you said, many of the big favorites cover early in the season. When the schedule turns to October, however, and conference play begins in earnest, the disparity in talent between teams often diminishes and more "square" bettors continue to lay big points with the "name" teams despite the increased intensity of conference play.
I also mainly play spots, so the on-paper abilities of teams does not matter nearly as much to me as does motivation and public perception.
Good luck bud, nice week - I grabbed Pitt -5.5 when it opened, lots have to go perfectly right for that Rutgers team to compete
Good to hear you from you KP. I would have entertained Pitt anything under a touchdown but this line could very well go higher after the whole country watched them dismantle USF Thursday night. I loved Pitt in that game but don't feel they deserve to be laying 9+ on the road at a decent team.
You got a great line on Pitt, though, and might've set yourself up for a nice middle opportunity.
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Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
Good luck bud, nice week - I grabbed Pitt -5.5 when it opened, lots have to go perfectly right for that Rutgers team to compete
Good to hear you from you KP. I would have entertained Pitt anything under a touchdown but this line could very well go higher after the whole country watched them dismantle USF Thursday night. I loved Pitt in that game but don't feel they deserve to be laying 9+ on the road at a decent team.
You got a great line on Pitt, though, and might've set yourself up for a nice middle opportunity.
Tempted by Rutgers, not sure whether I'll play them though. All over SJSU and Wyo. My favorite dog spot is Bowling Green though. Have a gander.
Like your angle on WMU this week. Suffice to say the game with NIU is probably the biggest of the season for the Broncos, and even though UCONN isn't very good this season, it's still a win on the road over a BCS team.
Don't know a whole lot about Marshall but UCF is not built to blow teams out of the water.
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Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:
Tempted by Rutgers, not sure whether I'll play them though. All over SJSU and Wyo. My favorite dog spot is Bowling Green though. Have a gander.
Like your angle on WMU this week. Suffice to say the game with NIU is probably the biggest of the season for the Broncos, and even though UCONN isn't very good this season, it's still a win on the road over a BCS team.
Don't know a whole lot about Marshall but UCF is not built to blow teams out of the water.
Don't know a whole lot about Marshall but UCF is not built to blow teams out of the water.
As a rule, I'm skeptical of teams coming off big upset victories (+11 counts). Might be worth a play, but they always get a second and third look first.
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Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:
Don't know a whole lot about Marshall but UCF is not built to blow teams out of the water.
As a rule, I'm skeptical of teams coming off big upset victories (+11 counts). Might be worth a play, but they always get a second and third look first.
Arid- I see your point there. In reality, though, that Marshall-Louisville line was way out-of-whack to begin with so I'm not sure how much of an upset it actually was. UCF can be horrendous at times and Doc Holliday is the type of coach who usually gets his team to play up to better competition.
Much more research needed on the game before deciding.
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TRoe-
Arid- I see your point there. In reality, though, that Marshall-Louisville line was way out-of-whack to begin with so I'm not sure how much of an upset it actually was. UCF can be horrendous at times and Doc Holliday is the type of coach who usually gets his team to play up to better competition.
Much more research needed on the game before deciding.
Marshall continues to climb, hitting 16.5 right now.
Big line move on Rutgers as the Scarlet Knights dropped all the way from +9 to +7. Gonna wait that one out and hope the number comes back up throughout the week.
Very close to making a move on Iowa. I anticipated a PK at the open but the number has moved from 2.5 to 3...Iowa has been inconsistent all season but has exponentially more offensive balance and continuity than does PSU. Plus, the Hawkeyes have owned this series as of late.
Got a really shitty line on Wyoming. Missed it at 10 initially, took 9, and now it's shot all the way up to 10.5..I promised myself that I would play the Cowboys at anything more than a touchdown, though, so I had to take the 9 points.
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Marshall continues to climb, hitting 16.5 right now.
Big line move on Rutgers as the Scarlet Knights dropped all the way from +9 to +7. Gonna wait that one out and hope the number comes back up throughout the week.
Very close to making a move on Iowa. I anticipated a PK at the open but the number has moved from 2.5 to 3...Iowa has been inconsistent all season but has exponentially more offensive balance and continuity than does PSU. Plus, the Hawkeyes have owned this series as of late.
Got a really shitty line on Wyoming. Missed it at 10 initially, took 9, and now it's shot all the way up to 10.5..I promised myself that I would play the Cowboys at anything more than a touchdown, though, so I had to take the 9 points.
I've never seen movement like this. I was in the middle of doing my research when the game jumped from 16.5 to 17. Obviously, 17 is a key number and I was pretty much set to lock it in. After checking a few other things, the line had jumped AGAIN, this time to 17.5. Grabbed it there at 2.5 points higher than it was last night when I put together my initial leans.
Marshall built a ton of confidence with the win @ Louisville on Saturday. They've struggled mightily against UCF in recent years, but I love the makeup of this year's team and do not feel UCF should be laying a number this steep in conference play. The Knights are a ground-and-pound team that relies on a dominant running game and sound defense. The total will probably be in the Mid-40's, so I feel really, really good about having the dog at 17.5 points. Marshall freshman QB Rakeem Cato seems to be improving every week, and if the Herd gets just decent production from its ground game, it should be in the game at the end.
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Marshall +17.5 @ Central Florida (2 units)
I've never seen movement like this. I was in the middle of doing my research when the game jumped from 16.5 to 17. Obviously, 17 is a key number and I was pretty much set to lock it in. After checking a few other things, the line had jumped AGAIN, this time to 17.5. Grabbed it there at 2.5 points higher than it was last night when I put together my initial leans.
Marshall built a ton of confidence with the win @ Louisville on Saturday. They've struggled mightily against UCF in recent years, but I love the makeup of this year's team and do not feel UCF should be laying a number this steep in conference play. The Knights are a ground-and-pound team that relies on a dominant running game and sound defense. The total will probably be in the Mid-40's, so I feel really, really good about having the dog at 17.5 points. Marshall freshman QB Rakeem Cato seems to be improving every week, and if the Herd gets just decent production from its ground game, it should be in the game at the end.
-All of this Iowa love is scaring the hell outta me. How anyone can lay 4 with PSU in this game is dumbfounding, but there must be a reason for the movement. Either way, it's enough for me to approach with caution and not doing anything for now.
-I would love to fade Clemson right now but BC is riddled with injuries and is easily the "slowest" team in the ACC. If Clemson is interested, they could blow the Eagles right off the field. Don't think we'll see their best performance, however.
-Great spot for Bowling Green but I'd like more than 10 points. WMU lit up the Falcons last year on the road and could very well overlook BG. Huge sandwich game for the Broncos.
-Love the spot for Utah with Oregon on deck for ASU. Big question though is if Jordan Wynn can play for Utah. I had a nice size play on UW last week in Salt Lake but saw some good things overall from the Utes. Would love 4 or 5 here if I play it.
-Horrendous schematic matchup for Auburn against Arkansas. Second consecutive road game for the Tigers and the Hogs will be looking to avenge last year's loss at Jordan-Hare. Much closer game than it appeared. Doubt Jake Bequette plays but I like Arky regardless.
-Northwestern at more than a touchdown? This is getting really damn tempting even if Persa is out as Kain Colter has looked perfectly capable. First road game for Michigan with a trip to East Lansing on deck.
-Wake is really, really improved this season and has the offensive balance to give FSU a really tough game. Seminoles off a bye, though, and should be fairly focused. Maybe a play at 14+
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-All of this Iowa love is scaring the hell outta me. How anyone can lay 4 with PSU in this game is dumbfounding, but there must be a reason for the movement. Either way, it's enough for me to approach with caution and not doing anything for now.
-I would love to fade Clemson right now but BC is riddled with injuries and is easily the "slowest" team in the ACC. If Clemson is interested, they could blow the Eagles right off the field. Don't think we'll see their best performance, however.
-Great spot for Bowling Green but I'd like more than 10 points. WMU lit up the Falcons last year on the road and could very well overlook BG. Huge sandwich game for the Broncos.
-Love the spot for Utah with Oregon on deck for ASU. Big question though is if Jordan Wynn can play for Utah. I had a nice size play on UW last week in Salt Lake but saw some good things overall from the Utes. Would love 4 or 5 here if I play it.
-Horrendous schematic matchup for Auburn against Arkansas. Second consecutive road game for the Tigers and the Hogs will be looking to avenge last year's loss at Jordan-Hare. Much closer game than it appeared. Doubt Jake Bequette plays but I like Arky regardless.
-Northwestern at more than a touchdown? This is getting really damn tempting even if Persa is out as Kain Colter has looked perfectly capable. First road game for Michigan with a trip to East Lansing on deck.
-Wake is really, really improved this season and has the offensive balance to give FSU a really tough game. Seminoles off a bye, though, and should be fairly focused. Maybe a play at 14+
I'm just not a believer in Denard or the Wolverines as a whole. Clearly this line is assuming Persa won't play, which may or not be true. I like NW regardless as Colter is plenty capable and the Wildcats are too good of a home team to be getting more than a touchdown against a UM team playing its first road game. Northwestern really let one go last week but I think they'll be able to get back up for a Top 15 game in their own house. Michigan has Sparty on deck in East Lansing.
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Michigan @ Northwestern +7.5 (2 units)
I'm just not a believer in Denard or the Wolverines as a whole. Clearly this line is assuming Persa won't play, which may or not be true. I like NW regardless as Colter is plenty capable and the Wildcats are too good of a home team to be getting more than a touchdown against a UM team playing its first road game. Northwestern really let one go last week but I think they'll be able to get back up for a Top 15 game in their own house. Michigan has Sparty on deck in East Lansing.
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