week 9

@spottie2935

Spottie, do you wager even units on your plays?

Do you ever like some more then others?

My thinking to begin is even on most plays but I do in game wager and other factors influence my betting. 

@spottie2935

 I dont even understand what I typed there. 

I bet all my games the same MOST of the time.  

Are you asking for a smaller concise list?

AD and PRSW<9 and season>2018 and o:PRSW>7 and C and week>4 and 27>line>13.5 and 3>t:wins>0 and o:wins>1 and streak>-5 and o:losses<4

I dislike some of these scrub games and after 2 dogs last night makes me a little hesitant. I give JV St credit they have been favorites and strong equal competition.  They might cover this big line once again.  I see this line and compare their past opponents to MTSU and at this line I see the lines maker has added a few points 

sometimes it doesn’t matter.  See Army Indiana Navy BYU.  In this case laying this many points.  I’ll make JVST beat me.  

I’ll watch 

@Boa33

 Do you like week day game? 
Rutgers line is legit for them to excel. 
Penn St although I’m not a favorite guy the lines they have had are brutal this season.  This line it at least normal.  
Stanford has played 3 top teams and the 4th is very good.  Their opponent this week is very beatable 

I like Stanford here. 

I feel like these 3 teams are ripe for a sweep or 2-1 

Stanford

Penn st 

Rutgers

@spottie2935

I don’t mind the week day games if I see value, but yeah some of these teams with QB being out and inconsistent play are hard to cap.

Rutgers has been tough for me this season but I’ll give it a look.

Following you on Middle Tenn tonight.

Texas Tech +7 stands out.

Took Baylor last week with the points.

Tech is a hard team to figure out but I went there so I follow them closely.

Rutgers 2 home favorite losses in a row one of them to WISC.  They didn't show up for that game.  All these are things I look for in a game and line.  Much like UCF last week, people saw them as weak because they were not doing much s favorites.  As A big dog people run away. I run TO these teams.  Finally a line where they dont have to win, just stay within reach.

I trust a team that's been favorites most of the season, underperformed recently, and now people are timid because of  bad recent performance and a big line.  Looks like they cant compete.  Its perception.  I like unfavorable perception teams as dogs. 

Texas Tech +7 stands out.

I like it, but one bad game isn't enough for me to get on board.  If they disappoint here then That attracts me more.  Watching this even though its the right situation against TCU, who is in regression after exceling in 2022.

Following you on Middle Tenn tonight.

I'd love to say Mid Tn was better but the fade here is JVST.  3 straight games covering the line by 20+ points.  A weekday game that exposes books because bettors dont have a lot of choices.  

JV St was only -6.5 to So. Miss, played Kennesaw St on the road -17.5, back home last week to NM St -21.5.  I believe the outstanding JV St performances recently has added a few points to this line.  It boils down to how good is JV St.  Line wise, because of what JV St has done, its a good bet.  Things just have to play out better for the dog in this game. 

@spottie2935

GL this week Spottie 

@Buzzard311

@Boa33

MTSU had a chance late and Blew it 

GL Spottie… thx for the hard work 

GL spottie… thoughts on Cincinnati?  Congratulations on all your Colorado calls!  
not kidding, you’ve been a major supporter of Coach Prime and this team he’s built since the beginning.

however, Bearcats are a disciplined team…the type that can give CU fits. Lemme know if you have a lean, and thanks for sharing your hard work.

@JJWoods

 I am in deep thought about this game and since its late nigh at home and CU is the favorite that leads me to "believe" that CU will fail against the spread.   Win the game yes I think so.  It depends though.  I am totally on board with CU atching points but as a favorite they have shown repeatedly less excellence.  

They were dominate last week and turned it off in the second half.  I have no problem with that.  Except this week Cincy is a and will be much better team.

Cincy doesn't have the athletes but sometimes CU's approach gets them in trouble.  CU will not be getting the ball at the Cincy 45 yard line to start the game this week.  That momentum last week was special and got them rolling from the get go.  I don't see that happening this week.

I don't see CU's D getting so many sacks this week.  They will have to do more work to get off the field on defense.  They have to run the ball enough to be able to protect Shedeur.  CU is going to get theirs but in order to cover as favorites I would like 17+ point lead.  They can do it but Cincy is getting the most points on the their season +6.5.

Cu is going to have to do more and Travis Hunter better be 100% and a big part of the Defense once again.  They have enough on offense but on offense I think Shedeur's confidence is better when throwing to him and Wester. 

Punting is elite for CU but Mata limits them in the kicking game.  His range is a problem.  

Cincy:  I have not watched them play but looking at scores and lines.  Best line of the season.  Have not played the superior B12 teams yet.  2 losses by a combined 4 points.  If they dont play a ball control game and limit CU's opportunities and like everyone else try's to pressure Shedeur it might get ugly for them. 

Even good teams its super difficult for me to back favorites.  With a dog and points they don't have to win.  Just stay in the game.  With CU coming off a basically weak 
Arizona game with a flawless performance, makes me nervous.  

Add it all up.  Late night CU favorites no thanks.  Cincy in a long covering streak.  Cu Coming off a game where the crushed the spread.  CU needing the win to keep the conference championship and bowl eligibility alive.  

CU wins by 1-4 points.  

good luck spottie - tailing some of these for sure 

@spottie2935

After the Buffs blowout win last week, do I hear a 7? I'm keeping an eye on it. If it gets to 7 I might get involved. Colorado drives me crazy. They are such a squirrely team. Good luck!