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**WEEK #9 IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL**

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Posted: #1
Track my records:
Week #1-2
Week #3-5
Week #6-7
Week #7
Week #8

DOCUMENTED RECORD 21-13 (61.8%) +$350.00

WEEK #1                 WEEK #2              
2-1                     0-1

WEEK #3                 WEEK #4
3-1                      4-0

WEEK#5                  WEEK #6
0-2                  1-2

WEEK#7                  WEEK#8
7-1                     4-6

WEEK#9
BET FAR TOO MANY GAMES LAST WEEK.. GOT MOOSED IN A COUPLE!! HOWEVER, LUCKY IN A FEW AS WELL... LOOKING TO MAKE A FEW CHANGES AND GET BACK ON THE WINNING STREAK I AM (12-11) the past 4 weeks... hoping to have another 7-1 week..

EARLY Leans WEEK #9- lines are my predicted ones

  • TROY -21
  • HAWAII +4
  • USC -16
  • WASH +12
  • MISSOURI -20
  • AUBURN +5
  • SAN JOSE +8.5
  • WF +3
  • TX A&M +1.5
  • FLORIDA -19
  • UNLV +22
  • RICE +1.5
  • GEORGIA +1.5
  • MICH ST -4.5
  • TCU -30
 
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Posted: #2
where are u getting these lines from?
 
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Posted: #3
I'm not I just went through the matchups last night as i was watching the TB Bucs game and wrote out what I thought based on PTS For and PTS Against averages  giving +/- 1-3pts for home field advantage... so some are likely to be off... most of my books haven't realeased lines yet... so I don't know how far off they are or will be.
 
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Posted: #4
Ohio (2-5) @ Temple (2-5)
Why to watch: The MAC East is wide open and there for the taking by anyone who goes on a little bit of a run. The winner of this game will be in the thick of the title hunt, while the loser, because all the traffic ahead in the standings, might be done without winning out. Temple has been a hard-luck team losing three games by four points or fewer and battling hard in a loss to Central Michigan last week. The remaining MAC schedule (at Kent State, Eastern Michigan and Akron) isn’t bad. Ohio has turned its season around by winning two of the last three games, and with three straight home games to follow, might have the inside track in the East if it can pull off this win.
Why Ohio might win: the offense is starting to find itself. Moving the ball hasn’t been that much of a problem this year, but scoring has been like pulling teeth. The team’s biggest issue is a shaky defensive front that doesn’t generate any pass rush, but Temple’s offense isn’t good enough to take advantage of the extra time the backfield will get to work.
Why Temple might win: Ohio’s offense might have improved, but it’s hardly a juggernaut. It’s good for about 20-to-28 points on the right day, but Temple’s defense is good enough to keep things close. The defensive front is active enough to keep Boo Jackson from making too many, if any, plays outside of the pocket, while the secondary is good against mediocre passing games. Ohio has a mediocre passing game.
Who to watch: Temple’s offense was lousy before, and it went completely in the tank after losing starting QB Adam DiMichele. Getting more out of the running game is a must, and there’s where true freshman Joe Jones comes in. Being given a little bit of work throughout the year, he has been used more and more over the last three weeks. How sad is the Temple running game? Jones leads the team with 177 yards and a touchdown.
What will happen: Don’t expect fireworks. Temple’s defense will keep the score low, way low, but the Owl attack won’t be able to capitalize on opportunities. Boo Jackson will be just efficient enough to pull off the road win.
MY Prediction: Ohio 17 … Temple 10
 
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Posted: #5
Tonight's Pick:
OHIO +3.5 (2.5units)

Breakdown:
This should be a low scoring game from the sounds of it and I truly believe it will be regardless is Dimichele makes the start or not for Temple.  It seems that if he gives it a go he still won't be effective and the backup Stewart is still going to get some time...yikes...

Up front I think Ohio will dominate Temple on defense as they did last year.  Temple has not much of a running game and it will stay that way when this matchup is all said and done.  I am not too worried about their newest spark Griffin a converted defensive player.  With Ohio winning the turnover battle as of late I expect them to get some points.

I may also take a look at the under int his game as we are witnessing two of the worst teams in penalties. Both teams have committed 65yds+per game on penalties which will negate big plays and stall drives.  That is good for the under.  What is also looking good for the under other than both team's lack of offense is Temple's Defense in the red zone which is ranked 32nd.

Two reasons why Ohio wins this game outright.. Boo Jackson and their Defense!

As always gentlemen if you want to win money bet with your head! Don't and EXPECT to win
GL TO ALL!
 
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Posted: #6

Fritz-

I'm new to Covers but a long-time bettor.  This is one of the most insightful, if not THE most, write-ups I've read on the Temple/Ohio match-up.  Great perspective.  I like the Under and was a "no play" for the side.  But the points you utter are making me think about an Ohio +3 play.

Nice job. 

 
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Posted: #7
Thanks.... I am also loving the under more and more as i took half of my wager units and I'm going to put it on the under total. GL
 
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Posted: #8
YW...  Noticed in my book that total is now 41.5.  Would you recommend locking this now since I haven't already or wait till later to see if it ticks north again?  Thanks and GL!
 
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Posted: #9
personally I don't want to recommend anything on Totals I rarely played them.. In fact my first o/u I played of the year was the TExans Lions game at 46.5 which I had the over and the final total was 48 i got lucky on a 96yd bomb to Calvin Johnson to hold onto that over...


Typically when these things go under they go under by more points than a half.. i'm holding off on this anyway cuz my book has low juice special tuesdays from 6-9.... so i'll see where it is then.  if it dips below 40 it's a no play for me.
 
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Posted: #10
gl bro lets stay on the same side for a while and not root for that middle
 
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Posted: #11
I WANT TO SHOOT THE GOD DAMN MOOSE IT KEEPS FOLLOWING ME AROUND!!!!



THAT WAS ROUGH TO WATCH.. I THINK I'M GOING TO GO BACK TO BETTING THE GAMES AND CHECKING THE SCORES LATER! CHRIST I'M GOING TO GIVE MYSELF A HEART ATTACK!
 
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Posted: #12
Well back to the basics... I'm taking a look at Thursday night's matchup early.. I am leaning with the road dawg once again!

Auburn (4-3) @ West Virginia (4-2)
Why to watch: When schedules were released in the summer, this shaped up as one of the most intriguing non-conference match ups of the year. While five losses between Auburn and West Virginia have certainly diminished its national appeal, it remains a critical crossroads game for both schools. Back-to-back losses to Vanderbilt and Arkansas have eliminated the Tigers from SEC contention and Tony Franklin from his post as the offensive coordinator. Auburn will be giving the ball to versatile sophomore Kodi Burns, the player’s and fans’ choice to pilot the disabled offense. The Mountaineers are having offensive problems of their own under Jeff Mullen, who’s become the Big East’s version of Franklin around Morgantown. On the bright side, West Virginia expects to get Pat White back from a concussion and still controls its own destiny for a BCS bowl game. The winner of this game could get a boost that carries it through the second half of the year.
Why Auburn might win: Defense. Amid all the troubles the Tigers have faced this fall, the defense has not been one of them. They’re allowing just 13 points a game, and have been equally tough against the run as the pass. Sen’Derrick Marks, Antonio Coleman, and Tez Doolittle are the cornerstones of a terrific defensive line that’ll neutralize West Virginia’s strength and experience on the interior and help keep its offense reeling. The ‘eers haven’t been right since the opener, averaging only 17 points over the last five games.
Why West Virginia might win: The Mountaineers won’t be the only team in Milan Puskar with problems on the offensive side of the ball. Auburn has been a wreck, ranking 107th nationally in total offense and getting next to nothing from the passing game. West Virginia’s 15th-ranked scoring defense has allowed one touchdown pass at home all year and will make Burns’ third start of the season a difficult one. LB Mortty Ivy and S John Holmes are microcosms of the Mountaineer defense, swarming to the ball and playing with exceptional range.
Who to watch: Auburn’s ability to turn things around and possibly save Tommy Tuberville’s job rest squarely on the shoulders of Burns, a talented sophomore who is still raw in the passing game. He’ll benefit from an extra week of preparation and from not having to constantly look over his shoulder at Chris Todd. Burns is at his most dangerous when he’s on the move, so look for the Tiger staff to implement a gameplan that maximizes his unique skill set. If nothing else, the change at quarterback has been something the rest of the team has rallied around over the last week.
What will happen: Possibly sensing that Tuberville is in trouble, Auburn will play its best game of the season, getting a great effort from the defense for a pivotal road win. Burns will play sporadically, leaning on backs Ben Tate and Brad Lester to carry the load on offense. Special teams, a strength for both schools, will play a key role throughout the night.
My Prediction: Auburn 16 … West Virginia 14
 
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Posted: #13
I think you should credit CFN for the write up text
 
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Posted: #14
Good point.. don't want to get in trouble... the only thing I changed is my prediction of the game which will be changing shortly anyway because I am flip flopping.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by schase70:

Fritz-

I'm new to Covers but a long-time bettor.  This is one of the most insightful, if not THE most, write-ups I've read on the Temple/Ohio match-up.  Great perspective.  I like the Under and was a "no play" for the side.  But the points you utter are making me think about an Ohio +3 play.

Nice job. 

 

You can get all those INSIGHTFUL write-ups, where he gets them on cfn.scout.com

 
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Posted: #16

Auburn (4-3) @ West Virginia (4-2)

Looks like I am flip flopping after being able to finally go through several articles this morning I realized that West Virginia is the better play......

WV Defense vs. Auburn's Offense
WV Defense has give up just 1 passing TD all year..  Not like that is going to be a problem as Auburn can't pass any way but they are rumored to be going with the spread/west coast tonight to help their passing game.. I wonder if they know how talented WV is on defense... My guess is this is not something that can be implemented over night with a QB in Burns that is not experienced at all and has struggled thus far. WV run defense is also pretty impressive as they have given up just 2.8 yards per carry at home and 95.8yds rushing. Although they have not really played great teams at home this year in (Marshall, Rutgers, Syracuse, and Villanova) the stat is still pretty impressive.  What that tells me is they take care of opponents who don't necessarily have great offenses and I expect them to do the same tonight and not led up especially on a Thursday night game.

WV Offense vs. Auburn's Defense
okay WV get's a huge spark with Pat White coming back tonight they have been able to improve the rushing offense while he was out as Noel Devine got a lot of carries and the offensive line enjoyed blocking for him.  With Pat White returning I hear that the offense is going to be more open this week and they are going to throw the ball early and often to make the Auburn Defense weak vs. the run.

Auburn's Defensive numbers are very impressive but I believe those numbers are FRAUD... What about the 3-2 game where they forced 1TO and gave up 3 and still won the game.  This was where the hurricanes had an after affect on the games.  They also gave up 14pts to Vanderbilt who does not have a great offense by no meants.  I think WV has more talented offense than Vandy.  I think WV should easily be able to put up 2 TD's and a FG and if they do that they cover the spread tonight.

SPECIAL TEAMS AND THE TURNOVER BATTLE SEE NEXT MESSAGE.......


 


 
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Posted: #17
Special Teams:

 
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Kick Returning- WEST VIRGINIA

Mark Rodgers 8 182 22.8 37
Jock Sanders 5 108 21.6 32
Noel Devine 2 47 23.5 24
Ellis Lankster 2 46 23.0 31
Ricky Kovatch 1 8 8.0 8

Punting

Pat McAfee 28 1272 45.4 65


Punt Returning

Ellis Lankster 14 176 12.6 36
D.J. Thomas 1 26 26.0 26
Brandon Hogan 1 11 11.0 11


 
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Kick Returning- Auburn Tigers

Tristan Davis 12 312 26.0 97
Mario Fannin 6 123 20.5 24
Philip Pierre-Louis 1 18 18.0 18
Ben Tate 1 11 11.0 11

Punting

Clinton Durst 42 1831 43.6 58
Ryan Shoemaker 7 248 35.4 51

Punt Returning

Robert Dunn 9 193 21.4 66
Chris Slaughter 2 16 8.0 8


EDGE: SLIGHT AUBURN
Auburn is very much like West Virginia it appear that Auburn may have a couple more players that can break out the long runs.. or atleast their blocking on Special teams might be a little better... However both teams can set up nice for field position
 
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So What is the biggest difference between these teams?

I think the difference comes with turnovers and what those teams do when they do get turnovers.  It is very clear that WV has a better offense even though they have struggled so far this year.  Getting White back wil be a huge boost to the offense as they will have a passing game again.  The Defense has been stellar over the last 3 games and Auburn can we really even call it an offense????

Turnovers: Edge- BIG WEST VIRGINIA
Well well finally an edge for one team here that is clear...West Virginia is 46-2 when they win the turnover battle dating back to 2002.  I really do not see them having an issue winning this battle tonight as Auburn has been awful and WV really seems to know how to take care of the ball.. Let's just see what the TO's look like this year:
INT THROWN1001002
FUMBLES FUMB LOST
0 0
2 2
1 1
2 1
0 0
1 0
6 4


INT THROWN11021139
FUMBLES FUMB LOST
0 0
5 3
3 3
1 0
1 0
2 0
0 0
12 6

 
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Posted: #21
Tonight's Pick:
WEST VIRGINIA (-3) (3UNITS)

BREAKDOWN:
Breakdown is above.. sorry for those who thought I was trying to pass off CFN's "fearless predictions" as my own I wasn't I simply pasted it in there to help others and always wrote my own write up after... Look at the OHIO game anyhow... The only thing I did take as my own was the prediction as I changed their outcome... either way who cares..

I am taking WV mainly because of the difference in TO's Auburn has 15 this year WV has 6.  Auburn has thrown atleast 1 INT in their last 4 games.  When they did not throw an INT they were too busy giving up the ball on the ground with 3 fumbles... WV wins this game 20-13
 
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ADDING Pick:
AUBURN UNDER 17.5 (1 UNIT)

Pretty much explained it before.. I don't trust Auburn to score on West Virginia unless WV is blowing them out.

As always gentlemen if you want to win money bet with your head! Don't and EXPECT to win
GL TO ALL!
 
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Posted: #23
of course i talk about taking care of the ball and how WV does it and pat white throws an int in the red zone.
 
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ADDING Pick:
AUBURN UNDER 17.5 (1 UNIT)


well basically!
 
 
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Posted: #25
WEEK#9
(2-1) +6.75units
Ohio
WV
Auburn U17.5

Looks like I over reacted a little early and was able to pull off a 2-0 night.. how about that.. it pays to jinx yourself j/k... Anyway looking forward to capping tomorow night's battle GL all.

DOCUMENTED RECORD 23-14 (62.2%) +$24.25units
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