Week 8 Recap: Went 3-5 and minus 6.9 stars. The TCU play was a head scratcher as that looked like one of the worst bets ever. Not even sure what I was watching in that game as that is the definition of being wrong about a game. Some tough luck with the Tenn plays – up 20-7 and controlling the game I felt the spread would be fine but lost both the spread and total. Got some good fortune with the Okl FH total so it balanced it out. Losing weeks 2 of the last 3 so hopefully this week will be a bounce back.
Total now is 36-21 and plus 35.2 stars.
On to this week – still looking through a few games. Below is what I have so far.
4* Texas A&M -15
3* Purdue +2.5
1.5* Kansas +10, 1*Kansas FH +6, 0.5*FH ML +210
2* Wisconsin +14.5
1.5* SC – Texas A&M Under 53.5
1* Purdue – Neb Under 39.5
Will be looking at Cincy and possibly the under – want to see how the weather looks tomorrow. Rain & Wind would be an advantage for Cincy. Also looking at Minn game and Louisville. Washington as well
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Week 8 Recap: Went 3-5 and minus 6.9 stars. The TCU play was a head scratcher as that looked like one of the worst bets ever. Not even sure what I was watching in that game as that is the definition of being wrong about a game. Some tough luck with the Tenn plays – up 20-7 and controlling the game I felt the spread would be fine but lost both the spread and total. Got some good fortune with the Okl FH total so it balanced it out. Losing weeks 2 of the last 3 so hopefully this week will be a bounce back.
Total now is 36-21 and plus 35.2 stars.
On to this week – still looking through a few games. Below is what I have so far.
4* Texas A&M -15
3* Purdue +2.5
1.5* Kansas +10, 1*Kansas FH +6, 0.5*FH ML +210
2* Wisconsin +14.5
1.5* SC – Texas A&M Under 53.5
1* Purdue – Neb Under 39.5
Will be looking at Cincy and possibly the under – want to see how the weather looks tomorrow. Rain & Wind would be an advantage for Cincy. Also looking at Minn game and Louisville. Washington as well
A&M plus 87 and SC -108 in yd diff in SEC play. A&M off a bye and should be rested and healthier. This bet comes down to the SC injuries. There is an article about how the off line is so banged up its impacting practice. Several starters in doubt for this week. Receivers also banged up – Wells is still out (hasn’t played yet this year but was top WR) and Brown doubtful and Legette (top receiver) left last game injured. SC was mauled last week against Missouri – 5 sacks and under pressure on 41% of drop backs. Game was over at half and score actually misleading as I felt Miss could have won by 40 plus (315-98 yds at half – score 24-3). This week going up against a rested A&M def and I don’t see how they move the ball. Rattler should be under pressure all game. SC gives up 4 sacks a game in SEC play and A&M has 23 sacks in 4 SEC games. SC has second worst def in ypg allowed in SEC play at 473 (A&M second with 262 allowed)
I think this game will play out more like the games against Aub and Ark for A&M but a little worse as those teams play some defense. I think things will be ugly for SC in this one as even Beamer commented that he has never seen anything like this in his career in terms of injuries. I don’t see SC getting past 10 points without a turnover or a def breakdown or special teams play. A&M should get back on track this week
Prediction: Texas A&M by 25
1.5* SC – Texas A&M Under 53.5
Tough to give double digit points and go under. I do like the SC team total under but I am so capped in books I can’t even bet it like I want so just playing the under. I think SC will have a tough time scoring and the A&M off hasn’t lit things up so I see them getting up and sitting on it. There is the risk they really roll and put it over almost by themselves but I think SC can keep them in the 30s and A&M could hold SC to single digits.
Prediction: 45 pts
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4* Texas A&M -15
A&M plus 87 and SC -108 in yd diff in SEC play. A&M off a bye and should be rested and healthier. This bet comes down to the SC injuries. There is an article about how the off line is so banged up its impacting practice. Several starters in doubt for this week. Receivers also banged up – Wells is still out (hasn’t played yet this year but was top WR) and Brown doubtful and Legette (top receiver) left last game injured. SC was mauled last week against Missouri – 5 sacks and under pressure on 41% of drop backs. Game was over at half and score actually misleading as I felt Miss could have won by 40 plus (315-98 yds at half – score 24-3). This week going up against a rested A&M def and I don’t see how they move the ball. Rattler should be under pressure all game. SC gives up 4 sacks a game in SEC play and A&M has 23 sacks in 4 SEC games. SC has second worst def in ypg allowed in SEC play at 473 (A&M second with 262 allowed)
I think this game will play out more like the games against Aub and Ark for A&M but a little worse as those teams play some defense. I think things will be ugly for SC in this one as even Beamer commented that he has never seen anything like this in his career in terms of injuries. I don’t see SC getting past 10 points without a turnover or a def breakdown or special teams play. A&M should get back on track this week
Prediction: Texas A&M by 25
1.5* SC – Texas A&M Under 53.5
Tough to give double digit points and go under. I do like the SC team total under but I am so capped in books I can’t even bet it like I want so just playing the under. I think SC will have a tough time scoring and the A&M off hasn’t lit things up so I see them getting up and sitting on it. There is the risk they really roll and put it over almost by themselves but I think SC can keep them in the 30s and A&M could hold SC to single digits.
On the surface this line would look puzzling to most as it would seem Neb should be fav by more. Couple main points about this bet. Purdue is off a bye and Walters commented this week that this is the first time Card has looked healthy since the Illinois game. Neb is extremely banged up – they have 3 off lineman out, top 2 receivers out, 2 of top 3 running backs, and a starting def back (both their punt returner and kickoff ret in this list). Look at their game last week – they couldn’t move it on NW. This off has scored 10, 7, 20, and 17 in conf games and now are banged up. Purdue def isn’t great but should be good against a bad off as Walters will pressure them. Purdue has not been good against the run but with all the injuries to Neb they should be able to load up and play the run well especially since they had an extra week of prep.
Might be a little wind and some rain – looking more clear now so might be just rain but keep an eye out. Neb can’t pass (138 ypg with a 2-7 ratio in big ten) and Purdue has the better QB in this one. The Neb def is good but Card should be able to make enough plays in this one and it wouldn’t surprise me if Purdue creates some turnovers. The Purdue kicker is back which will help as the Neb kicker isn’t very good Purdue might have an edge there as well. I look for a low scoring game and Purdue to get the win.
Prediction: Purdue by 4
1* Purdue – Neb Under 39.5
Low total so I only give it 1 star. Might be some weather. Purdue has had 4 games scoring 20 or less and Neb has had 5. All the Neb injuries on off drive this total as I think the Neb def will contain Purdue.
Prediction: 30 pts
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3* Purdue +2.5
On the surface this line would look puzzling to most as it would seem Neb should be fav by more. Couple main points about this bet. Purdue is off a bye and Walters commented this week that this is the first time Card has looked healthy since the Illinois game. Neb is extremely banged up – they have 3 off lineman out, top 2 receivers out, 2 of top 3 running backs, and a starting def back (both their punt returner and kickoff ret in this list). Look at their game last week – they couldn’t move it on NW. This off has scored 10, 7, 20, and 17 in conf games and now are banged up. Purdue def isn’t great but should be good against a bad off as Walters will pressure them. Purdue has not been good against the run but with all the injuries to Neb they should be able to load up and play the run well especially since they had an extra week of prep.
Might be a little wind and some rain – looking more clear now so might be just rain but keep an eye out. Neb can’t pass (138 ypg with a 2-7 ratio in big ten) and Purdue has the better QB in this one. The Neb def is good but Card should be able to make enough plays in this one and it wouldn’t surprise me if Purdue creates some turnovers. The Purdue kicker is back which will help as the Neb kicker isn’t very good Purdue might have an edge there as well. I look for a low scoring game and Purdue to get the win.
Prediction: Purdue by 4
1* Purdue – Neb Under 39.5
Low total so I only give it 1 star. Might be some weather. Purdue has had 4 games scoring 20 or less and Neb has had 5. All the Neb injuries on off drive this total as I think the Neb def will contain Purdue.
Kansas is off a bye and Okl off a lackluster performance. I like Kansas off the bye here as the rest should greatly help them for this game. I also think they will put some things in the gameplan for Okl with the extra prep so I can see them coming out with a lot of energy in this one and getting a lead at half. Might be some rain in the game as well and should be cool – this helps Kansas. Oklahoma has covered all but 1 spread but a couple of those right on the number. They are down one of their top receivers and their off is only gaining 5.92 ypp in conference (still third overall in ypg, Kansas gaining 7.02 ypp in conf). The Okl def has been solid but still giving up 416 ypg and 5.66 ypp in conf (Kansas is last in conf). Okl has several games where they have not looked dominant at all and now going on the road against a rested team should be a challenge. Kansas will run a lot of motion and misdirection in this one and should be able to create some plays.
Kansas should be fired up in this one and I could see them winning at half and possibly winning the game. I think the Okl def will adjust and Okl will find a way to win a close one.
Prediction: Kansas by 4 at half, Okl by 3 for the game
2* Wisconsin +14.5
Ohio State off an emotional win and now going on the road at night. Ohio St should get some players back this week which will help them. The Ohio St off hasn’t been as explosive this year and this is a big number to lay on the road. Wisc has been a little disappointing to me as I expected them to dominate the west and they clearly have not. I think they can build off that comeback win from last week and should have some confidence coming into this one. The Ohio State def is one of the best in the nation so it will be tough sledding for Wisc. I think their def will play well also as they are only giving up 308 ypg in conf (Ohio St 238 ypg allowed).
Wisc should have a good crowd for this game that should provide a spark. Ohio State off a big win I could see them struggling some in this game. Ohio St is clearly better and should win this game but I like Wisc to hang around
Prediction: Ohio St by 10
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1.5* Kansas +10
1* Kansas FH +6
0.5* Kansas FH ML +210
Kansas is off a bye and Okl off a lackluster performance. I like Kansas off the bye here as the rest should greatly help them for this game. I also think they will put some things in the gameplan for Okl with the extra prep so I can see them coming out with a lot of energy in this one and getting a lead at half. Might be some rain in the game as well and should be cool – this helps Kansas. Oklahoma has covered all but 1 spread but a couple of those right on the number. They are down one of their top receivers and their off is only gaining 5.92 ypp in conference (still third overall in ypg, Kansas gaining 7.02 ypp in conf). The Okl def has been solid but still giving up 416 ypg and 5.66 ypp in conf (Kansas is last in conf). Okl has several games where they have not looked dominant at all and now going on the road against a rested team should be a challenge. Kansas will run a lot of motion and misdirection in this one and should be able to create some plays.
Kansas should be fired up in this one and I could see them winning at half and possibly winning the game. I think the Okl def will adjust and Okl will find a way to win a close one.
Prediction: Kansas by 4 at half, Okl by 3 for the game
2* Wisconsin +14.5
Ohio State off an emotional win and now going on the road at night. Ohio St should get some players back this week which will help them. The Ohio St off hasn’t been as explosive this year and this is a big number to lay on the road. Wisc has been a little disappointing to me as I expected them to dominate the west and they clearly have not. I think they can build off that comeback win from last week and should have some confidence coming into this one. The Ohio State def is one of the best in the nation so it will be tough sledding for Wisc. I think their def will play well also as they are only giving up 308 ypg in conf (Ohio St 238 ypg allowed).
Wisc should have a good crowd for this game that should provide a spark. Ohio State off a big win I could see them struggling some in this game. Ohio St is clearly better and should win this game but I like Wisc to hang around
Was on the fence for this one as I was concerned with the mindset of Mich St. Barrow entering the portal this week had me off them but now he withdrew his name has me back on them. A team captain leaving would have made it tough to take them as you worry about mindset. Him coming back I think will provide some energy and that was something mentioned when reading about him talking to his teammates. I think Mich St is a team that is better off being on the road with all the distractions. They should have beat Rutgers and Iowa – outplayed both of them. They have played excellent defenses so far in conference – Iowa, Mich, Rutgers, and MD. Still their run def is only allowing 3.36 ypc and 108 ypg in conf. They are -53 ypg and Minn is -72 ypg diff in conference. Both blasted by Mich – toss that game. Minn won in Iowa and Mich St outplayed Iowa as well but lost. Turnovers have killed Mich St as they are last in the big ten at -8 and have 14 in last 4 games. This triggered the switch to Houser but not much improvement in this area as he as 2 picks and team has 5 turnovers in his starts. One start was at Rutgers in the rain and the other against a tremendous Mich team. Minn is plus 5 in conf games and this is the biggest risk of the bet as Minn has been better in this area.
I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched. Weather will be cold but looks like it should be clear. State has held each of their last 3 opponents to 120 yds or less and under 3.6 ypc. Even as bad as last week was Mich only ran for 120 yds and 3.53 ypc – it at least shows they won’t be run over which is what Minn likes to do.
Prediction: Minn by 3
3* Louisville -5.5
Louisville off a bye and they have been much better at home this year. I don’t see Leonard being healthy if he plays. If he is out it would make the bet even better. Louisville has balance and they have defended the run well this year (121 ypg and 3.64 ypc allowed in conf plus held ND to 44 yds rushing). I think Louisville controls this game and gets a nice win.
Prediction: Louisville by 14
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* Michigan St +7.5
Was on the fence for this one as I was concerned with the mindset of Mich St. Barrow entering the portal this week had me off them but now he withdrew his name has me back on them. A team captain leaving would have made it tough to take them as you worry about mindset. Him coming back I think will provide some energy and that was something mentioned when reading about him talking to his teammates. I think Mich St is a team that is better off being on the road with all the distractions. They should have beat Rutgers and Iowa – outplayed both of them. They have played excellent defenses so far in conference – Iowa, Mich, Rutgers, and MD. Still their run def is only allowing 3.36 ypc and 108 ypg in conf. They are -53 ypg and Minn is -72 ypg diff in conference. Both blasted by Mich – toss that game. Minn won in Iowa and Mich St outplayed Iowa as well but lost. Turnovers have killed Mich St as they are last in the big ten at -8 and have 14 in last 4 games. This triggered the switch to Houser but not much improvement in this area as he as 2 picks and team has 5 turnovers in his starts. One start was at Rutgers in the rain and the other against a tremendous Mich team. Minn is plus 5 in conf games and this is the biggest risk of the bet as Minn has been better in this area.
I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched. Weather will be cold but looks like it should be clear. State has held each of their last 3 opponents to 120 yds or less and under 3.6 ypc. Even as bad as last week was Mich only ran for 120 yds and 3.53 ypc – it at least shows they won’t be run over which is what Minn likes to do.
Prediction: Minn by 3
3* Louisville -5.5
Louisville off a bye and they have been much better at home this year. I don’t see Leonard being healthy if he plays. If he is out it would make the bet even better. Louisville has balance and they have defended the run well this year (121 ypg and 3.64 ypc allowed in conf plus held ND to 44 yds rushing). I think Louisville controls this game and gets a nice win.
Last week UCF had several players sick and Plumlee was receiving IV up till the game. If you wonder why he didn’t run that is why – plus maybe still careful with the knee. He says his knee feels fine. Surprising they were able to stay with Okl with the virus hitting the team. I think they will run all over WV in this one – WV giving up 5.3 ypc in conf games. UCF has a lot of speed and is explosive in the run game going against a def that is struggling. UCF is a much better home team and I expect them to jump on WV in this one.
Prediction: UCF by 14
Adding 2.5* WV – UCF FH Over 30.5
WV should be able to score some as well in this one as UCF has struggled against the run.
Prediction: 42 pts
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Adding 3.5* Central Florida FH -3.5
Last week UCF had several players sick and Plumlee was receiving IV up till the game. If you wonder why he didn’t run that is why – plus maybe still careful with the knee. He says his knee feels fine. Surprising they were able to stay with Okl with the virus hitting the team. I think they will run all over WV in this one – WV giving up 5.3 ypc in conf games. UCF has a lot of speed and is explosive in the run game going against a def that is struggling. UCF is a much better home team and I expect them to jump on WV in this one.
Prediction: UCF by 14
Adding 2.5* WV – UCF FH Over 30.5
WV should be able to score some as well in this one as UCF has struggled against the run.
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