Week 9 Thoughts and Chaos

These are my leans for now. May change my mind depending how things go. 

FIU  +23.5 vs Marshall.

Marshall is one of those suspicious teams in the top 25 that may not belong. These teams play each other tough. Marshall ain't covering 23.5. Just like your insurance won't cover your medical bills. My advice is to wait and see if the spread goes higher. But def pull the trigger on this one Friday. Tease it if you're queasy with the next pick.

Minnesota -19.5 vs Maryland 

Sota played some pretty decent ball against Michigan and came up short. Maryland meanwhile got smashed on the road by North Western. Minnesota should be pissed and make this a statement game. A team this good will perform early against a substandard team.

Wake Forest/Cuse over 59

The demon Deacons have a very scary offense. It made an impression on me week 2 against NC st. They were the only team I wouldn't bet against when Campbell was a covering machine earlier this season. They not only covered that point spread, but it wasn't close. Meanwhile their defense is so so. The CUSE is probably the best 1-5 team in college. Since they are at home I can see this game being a shootout. Get your popcorn. Should be a good one.

CC -3 vs GSU

The only issue I see here is CC's main qb being out. That is why the spread seem weird. But that didn't stop them from winning last week. I will be monitoring his status but assuming he is okay this should be whatever the attention addict sharps call it "DOUBLE MAX SUPER MEGA HAKKAI GIGA PLAY OF THE MILLENNIUM" or whatever. Meanwhile those tragic lads at GSU who just barely beat Campbell earlier in the year have to face a real team. Will def lay heavy units on this game. The earlier you take this the better.

ISU -28.5 vs KU

A long time ago in 2000 when JT The BRICK was on fox sports radio, he had a rival that would call a few times a week named Rhodesville. They HATED each other.  Threatened each other with physical violence multiple times. But the one thing they agreed on was that KANSAS SPORTS SUCK.

As Rhodesville said "The Kansas City Chiefs aren't nothing, the royals aren't nothing, the Kings weren't nothing, the Jayhawks ain't nothing!"

Now granted times have changed. Royals won a ship in 2015. Chiefs last year, but the Jayhawks have taken up the burden and are stuck; in a time loop of misery and woe. A misery so awful they are approaching Cleveland sports proportions before LeBron James broke the curse. I don't lay points like this normally, but it's time. It's Vader time! buy the point if you're unsure.

SDSU -7.5 vs USU

SDSU demolished UNLV last week. Their new running back is a stud. They put up 424 yards of offense. Meanwhile in sad Utah, the news surrounding the team is about their new quarterback trying to find his way and how the team really has not had much time together. They are searching for an identity! But this isn't a Disney movie! They are going to get slaughtered like they prey they are. San Diego is a beautiful place when not on fire. Utah is the land of salt but no wine after game time. Look for San Diego to take care of business so that they can get to the best part about Utah. Leaving Utah.

Like all those especially CC!

Take'em to the pay window Incognito! 

I was reminded that sota has all their kickers injured. Need to see if one of them makes it back for this game. That will be an issue otherwise. The dude they had kicking put up an 18 yard punt.

 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.twincities.com/2020/10/26/gophers-coach-p-j-fleck-has-never-seen-anything-like-this-kicking-situation/amp/

CC -3 vs GSU

I understand the play but they have very little history of being good on the road.  Good team for sure but I need more info to play them as road chalk.  

SDSU -7.5 vs USU

Nevada looked like champs against a historically pathetic basketball, i mean football team.  USU looked pathetic against on of the wests best teams.

Looks easy, it will not be.

my bad on the  bold i copied and the font didnt adjust.

by the way USU at home since 2010 41-13SU.  last week at Boise doesnt mean much to me.

I hope I dont come across as being a turd in the punch bowl, just giving you some different perspective on my likes.

Nevada?

Look my only request is, try to make it all one post next time. I welcome perspectives.

CC is not the best road team, but they still beat a favored division rival on the road. Not to mention home court isn't what it used to be pre covid. Crowds are smaller. The effect they have on the game is lessened. Records since 2010 in my opinion are nearly irrelevant in Covid season as well. There won't be a moment in the game when the coach says "Dang I forgot about 201x" 

Anything can happen for sure. This is just my leans for now.

“The best part about Utah , leaving.” 

we always have said me and my boys, the best place in Utah is the Airport 

pretty sure you know I meant SDSU but if not, now you do.  Been capping all day.

Brady Hoke...is the coach.....what's his overall record....??!!....oh and now he coaches the Aztecs...to roll through the MWC...?..!...NOT!!...Utah State...is not UNLV...thy hvnt found an identity..?...how about they find it in 20 deg..temps....and SDSU..loses... it..?.... two avg teams...follow avg patterns....W-L-W--L-W.....most common pattrn... in sports for avg teams....UTAH STATE...money line..!!

@jgjtrapboss

 Your obviously not an outdoorsmen..!....stay in the city....PLEASE...its where u blong..!!

 Wasn't sure if you were confusing them with U.N.L.V. No worries.

@cloverboy

 Are you pretending to have a stroke while typing?

@cloverboy - I’m from Alabama def not the city - been everywhere - referring to the drinking aspect. Utah is beautiful - would rather be in Colorado , Wyoming , etc 

Utah still sucks as a whole though 

Got coastal last night -2. I haven’t looked or heard if their starting qb is playing or not 

Incognito, What do you think about Hawaii at Wyoming+1 Friday night? The elevation is over a mile high, the temperature will be in the 30's. 

Okay fair warning this will be long winded. Also keep in mind I won't be betting this myself.

First off, I am actually super impressed with Hawaii. They got a good run game for once. Normally they are a pass heavy offense, but this year they got 2 good rbs and the qb actually runs really well. They got 300 plus yards running the ball 50 plus times under a new coach. The passing is still decent as well.

With that said, their defense had multiple good stands in the 2nd half against Fresno. They also forced a fumble and 3 interceptions. Wyoming is a different animal for sure. The weather in my opinion is overblown because you work yourself into a rhythm with field time. Unless it is literally snowing at game time. That being said, if the offense or defense is on the sidelines for a real long time, that is where I see weather coming into play. So factor in quick scores, turnovers, long drives.

Normally I would go with the altitude as a factor as well, but in Hawaii's case, I will only count it against them because the ball travels different in the air then what they are used to. (Which is why their newly established run game is so critical)

Hawaii is a humid area. Humidity affects lungs in a similar way altitude does. In humid environments oxygen is reduced with additional liquid filler. Altitude does the same without the water. So if you go and look up top air quality cities. Multiple cities from Wyoming and Hawaii are among the top. Altitude and humidity play roles in that.

Now another fact people won't consider. If you look at Hawaii's twitter, they have been in Wyoming since the 26th. That means their bodies will have acclimated better to the low oxygen environment as well as the weather. Better than showing up the day before, doing a practice and then game time next day. So in my opinion this will not be as big a factor for them vs other teams.

Now Wyoming had a tough loss vs Nevada where their offense was mia first half. Their starting qb got injured and it took awhile for the back up to get rolling. They pushed it to overtime but fell short. Their running game was in point and the passing picked up, but their defense got destroyed by Nevada's run.

Their coaching squad is addressing the defense and it should be ready this game for the run. The backup qb will have some pressure because they are playing 3 games within 11 days counting Saturday's game. Offense is capable. Crowds will not be as huge a road issue this season.

I can actually see Hawaii going in there and winning but they have to have a lot of things line up just right.

When I am not sure on a game I generally take the points. Line movement has gone from -2.5 Hawaii to -1 Hawaii. So if I had a gun to my head Wyoming. But I don't so I am laying off. As a fan I am pulling for Hawaii.

So those are my thoughts. Hope it gives you something to consider.

Thanks, good response. I didn't know Hawaii arrived early.

Alright update.

Marshall game is cancelled so that bet is out. Putting double money on sota. That should be a slaughter.

Also I am changing my mind on cc. I still think they have a good shot, but looking at the circumstances. Over 59.5 seems more likely to me now. GA st will put up points for sure. Even if Coastal's qb comes back, he is not in full practices according to the latest media. So either coastal puts up points or they are getting picked and outperformed. So muscle memory factor makes me take away potential scores from cc.

The national scale of the game makes me think GA st will be fired up to show off. Coastal will respond and the shootout begins.

42 ppg for GA. Cc gives up 21 ppg.

Cc scores 38 ppg with GA giving up 39 ppg.

I have seen coastal give up points to bad teams this year. GA st can hurt them with the run. Both teams have potential to score 50 plus. But I think once the reality hits of the quality of their opponent, both sides will tighten up.

I can see a 35-31 type score.

Almost everything is pointing to over for me except time of possession. But I still think they get it.

@jgjtrapboss

 Lots of partyers in Utah.....they go to Utah State....as one destination....for getting hammered b4 finals....it really sounds like you don't know Utah....AT ALL...!!

Well since you bumped this might as well update with what I went with.

FIU  +23.5 vs Marshall. 

Game got cancelled.

Minnesota -19.5 vs Maryland 

Ended up taking this one. Way bad pick on my part. But I got a good cover down with the next bet.

Maryland TT O37.5 

Glad Sota lost.

Wake Forest/Cuse over 59 

Didn't end up taking this one. It lost by 7 or 6 points. Cuse Way Under performed.

CC -3 vs GSU 

I almost got talked out of this. Glad I wasn't. They put a straight whooping on GSU.

CC/GSU Over 60ish 

I did not anticipate GSU being shut out the entire game. CC almost covered this themselves.

ISU -28.5 vs KU 

ISU got a backdoor cover at the end thanks to the backup QB throwing two 25+ yard bombs with less than 3 minutes left. ISU giving up 22 points to Kansas is pretty terrible. Will never take them again with a large spread this year.

SDSU -7.5 vs USU 

Leaving Utah.

Rutgers +9.5 vs Indiana 

This one gets the cannon because they were doing fine. Then right before halftime the QB throws 2 ints inside their own 30 and red zone. Both result in touchdowns. Comes out in the 3rd and throws another Int. Played even the rest of the game. Would have covered if the qb didn't have that giant let down for his defense.

Auburn -31.5 vs LSU (In game) 

Funny that Auburn was +3 I pulled the trigger toward the end when they were just serving LSU on a platter. Scrub Squad held on for me at the end.

I would have also played Rice and Duke just tailing FCF, but the Suncoast app didn't have either game. Annoying. Both were winners. I would have at least 4 more units. Been real lucky with in games this week. Up 7.5 Units. Should be up more but I will take it.