I`ll start at the top and paste the whole article.
That got me to thinking, “How often do underdogs win outright?”
Naturally there are different levels of underdogs and if you know me by
now, you know that I will head to my computer and get all the details.
There has been a lot of college football played since 1996, 12 years
worth of it. If you count each FBS team playing a game (so 2 teams each
game) in that span there were 16,753 different games of data for me to
analyze.
0
I`ll start at the top and paste the whole article.
That got me to thinking, “How often do underdogs win outright?”
Naturally there are different levels of underdogs and if you know me by
now, you know that I will head to my computer and get all the details.
There has been a lot of college football played since 1996, 12 years
worth of it. If you count each FBS team playing a game (so 2 teams each
game) in that span there were 16,753 different games of data for me to
analyze.
Let’s look at the biggest favorites and you will see that Las Vegas does
its job well picking out big favorites. Since 1996 there have been 382
teams that have been favored by OVER 31 points in a game. Of those 382
only FIVE have lost the game straight up. The biggest upset ever was
when Stanford (+41) upset USC in 2007 and showing what a weird year that
was the 2nd biggest upset ever was also in 2007 when Syracuse (+37)
beat Louisville. The other 3 huge upsets since 1996 were: Temple (+35.5)
over Virginia Tech in 1998, Central Michigan (+35.5) over Western
Michigan in 2000 and North Texas (+32) over Texas Tech in 1997.
Basically if your team is installed as an underdog of 31 points or more
in a game, they have a 1.3% chance of winning or 1 out of every 76.6
teams in that role actually win the game.
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Let’s look at the biggest favorites and you will see that Las Vegas does
its job well picking out big favorites. Since 1996 there have been 382
teams that have been favored by OVER 31 points in a game. Of those 382
only FIVE have lost the game straight up. The biggest upset ever was
when Stanford (+41) upset USC in 2007 and showing what a weird year that
was the 2nd biggest upset ever was also in 2007 when Syracuse (+37)
beat Louisville. The other 3 huge upsets since 1996 were: Temple (+35.5)
over Virginia Tech in 1998, Central Michigan (+35.5) over Western
Michigan in 2000 and North Texas (+32) over Texas Tech in 1997.
Basically if your team is installed as an underdog of 31 points or more
in a game, they have a 1.3% chance of winning or 1 out of every 76.6
teams in that role actually win the game.
Now let’s look at the chances of your favorite team winning if they are
installed as an underdog of 24.5 to 31 points. Since 1996 there have
been 617 teams that have been favored by 24.5 to 31 points in a game.
You would expect the underdogs would have a better chance of winning
outright than the above teams and naturally they do. In that span 24
teams that have been favored by that margin have lost straight up in a
game with two such upsets last year. Wyoming was +27 when they upset
Tennessee on the road and Oregon St was +25 when they upset USC at home.
The amount of upset did not go up as much as I thought they would as
upsets occurred only 3.9% of the time or 1 out of every 25.7 games.
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Now let’s look at the chances of your favorite team winning if they are
installed as an underdog of 24.5 to 31 points. Since 1996 there have
been 617 teams that have been favored by 24.5 to 31 points in a game.
You would expect the underdogs would have a better chance of winning
outright than the above teams and naturally they do. In that span 24
teams that have been favored by that margin have lost straight up in a
game with two such upsets last year. Wyoming was +27 when they upset
Tennessee on the road and Oregon St was +25 when they upset USC at home.
The amount of upset did not go up as much as I thought they would as
upsets occurred only 3.9% of the time or 1 out of every 25.7 games.
You would figure that the percentage of upsets in the 17.5 to 24 point
favorites level would go up drastically from that 3.9% in the previous
category. Since 1996 there have been 1,013 teams that have been favored
by 17.5 to 24 points. I am still a little surprised that there were only
71 upsets in this level of favorites over the 12 years span. That is
just 7% upsets which comes out to 1 upset loss for every 14.3 teams that
are favored by 17.5 to 24 points. Last year there were 9 such upsets
which included Ole Miss over Florida, UNLV over Arizona St, Eastern
Michigan over Bowling Green, Syracuse over Notre Dame, Army over Tulane,
Hawaii over Fresno St, FIU over Toledo, New Mexico St over Nevada and
Arkansas St over Texas A&M.
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You would figure that the percentage of upsets in the 17.5 to 24 point
favorites level would go up drastically from that 3.9% in the previous
category. Since 1996 there have been 1,013 teams that have been favored
by 17.5 to 24 points. I am still a little surprised that there were only
71 upsets in this level of favorites over the 12 years span. That is
just 7% upsets which comes out to 1 upset loss for every 14.3 teams that
are favored by 17.5 to 24 points. Last year there were 9 such upsets
which included Ole Miss over Florida, UNLV over Arizona St, Eastern
Michigan over Bowling Green, Syracuse over Notre Dame, Army over Tulane,
Hawaii over Fresno St, FIU over Toledo, New Mexico St over Nevada and
Arkansas St over Texas A&M.
I will start breaking it down into smaller categories as we continue to
go down in level of favoritism. The next category to look at are teams
that are favored by 14.5 (more than 2 TD’s) to 17 points. Since 1996
there have been 650 teams that have been favored by 14.5 to 17 points in
a game. Of the 650 teams favored by this amount 88 have lost the game
outright. That is close to double the odds as the category above as
13.5% of the teams favored by 14.5 to 17 points lose outright and an
upset occurs 1 time for every 7.38 games played in that level. There
were only 7 such upsets last year including Buffalo over Ball St in the
MAC title game.
0
I will start breaking it down into smaller categories as we continue to
go down in level of favoritism. The next category to look at are teams
that are favored by 14.5 (more than 2 TD’s) to 17 points. Since 1996
there have been 650 teams that have been favored by 14.5 to 17 points in
a game. Of the 650 teams favored by this amount 88 have lost the game
outright. That is close to double the odds as the category above as
13.5% of the teams favored by 14.5 to 17 points lose outright and an
upset occurs 1 time for every 7.38 games played in that level. There
were only 7 such upsets last year including Buffalo over Ball St in the
MAC title game.
The next level down that I will look at is the 10.5 to 14 point
category. From 1996 – 2008 there were 1,146 teams that were favored by
this level. Of those 1,146 games there were 242 upsets which was 21.1%
of the time. That still means that roughly 4 out of every 5 teams
favored by 10.5-14 points wins the game with an upset occurring once
every 4.7 times.
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The next level down that I will look at is the 10.5 to 14 point
category. From 1996 – 2008 there were 1,146 teams that were favored by
this level. Of those 1,146 games there were 242 upsets which was 21.1%
of the time. That still means that roughly 4 out of every 5 teams
favored by 10.5-14 points wins the game with an upset occurring once
every 4.7 times.
From 1996-2008 there were 1,056 teams that were favored by 7.5 to 10
points and of those 1,056 teams there were 279 upsets which was almost
the same results as the favorites from 10.5 to 14. That means that 26.4%
of the time a team was favored by 7.5 to 10 points they lost outright
and that translates into 1 upset every 3.78 games.
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From 1996-2008 there were 1,056 teams that were favored by 7.5 to 10
points and of those 1,056 teams there were 279 upsets which was almost
the same results as the favorites from 10.5 to 14. That means that 26.4%
of the time a team was favored by 7.5 to 10 points they lost outright
and that translates into 1 upset every 3.78 games.
Since 1996 there have been 1,930 teams that have been favored from 3.5
to 7 points. These are teams that are expected to win the game but the
game should be close. The last time we tightened up the category the
upsets went from every 4.7 games to every 3.8 games. Should we expect 1
in every 2.7 games here? Since 1996, 658 of the 1,930 teams that were
underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points have pulled outright upsets and that
translates into 1 every 2.9 games or 34.1% of the time.
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Since 1996 there have been 1,930 teams that have been favored from 3.5
to 7 points. These are teams that are expected to win the game but the
game should be close. The last time we tightened up the category the
upsets went from every 4.7 games to every 3.8 games. Should we expect 1
in every 2.7 games here? Since 1996, 658 of the 1,930 teams that were
underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points have pulled outright upsets and that
translates into 1 every 2.9 games or 34.1% of the time.
Now we get to the category that will tell us if Las Vegas knows what
they are doing. Games where a team is favored by 3 points or less. These
games are basically toss-ups but Vegas favors one team and makes them
the favorite. What percentage of teams pull minor upsets as underdogs of
3 points or less? As I type this I do not know the answer but I will
guess 45% of them. Now let’s go to the computer. Since 1996 there have
been 1,269 favorites of 3 points or less. My 45% guess would have 571
minor “upsets”. The actual answer is 621 “upsets” by teams that are
underdogs of 3 points or less which comes out to be 48.9% and that shows
these games are definitely toss-ups!
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Now we get to the category that will tell us if Las Vegas knows what
they are doing. Games where a team is favored by 3 points or less. These
games are basically toss-ups but Vegas favors one team and makes them
the favorite. What percentage of teams pull minor upsets as underdogs of
3 points or less? As I type this I do not know the answer but I will
guess 45% of them. Now let’s go to the computer. Since 1996 there have
been 1,269 favorites of 3 points or less. My 45% guess would have 571
minor “upsets”. The actual answer is 621 “upsets” by teams that are
underdogs of 3 points or less which comes out to be 48.9% and that shows
these games are definitely toss-ups!
As I type this I am thinking that 3 point games should have a much
higher % of the favorite winning so let’s take a closer look at just
those games. There have been 426 games in which a team was favored by 3
points by Las Vegas over the last 12 years. How many times does that
team win outright? The answer is 228 times or just 53.5% of the time.
That is 228 times the favorite has won and 198 times the underdog has
won which means the underdog is almost as likely as the favorite to win
the game when the line is exactly 3 points.
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As I type this I am thinking that 3 point games should have a much
higher % of the favorite winning so let’s take a closer look at just
those games. There have been 426 games in which a team was favored by 3
points by Las Vegas over the last 12 years. How many times does that
team win outright? The answer is 228 times or just 53.5% of the time.
That is 228 times the favorite has won and 198 times the underdog has
won which means the underdog is almost as likely as the favorite to win
the game when the line is exactly 3 points.
10 Biggest Underdogs In College Football Bowl History.
No. 1 - 1978 Orange Bowl The No.6 Arkansas
Razorbacks were 24 point underdogs going into the game against the No.2
Oklahoma Sooners. The Razorbacks won 31-6 behind the amazing running of
back-up Roland Sales. Sales carried the ball 22 times for 205 yards and 2
touchdowns. He also caught 4 passes for another 52 yards.
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10 Biggest Underdogs In College Football Bowl History.
No. 1 - 1978 Orange Bowl The No.6 Arkansas
Razorbacks were 24 point underdogs going into the game against the No.2
Oklahoma Sooners. The Razorbacks won 31-6 behind the amazing running of
back-up Roland Sales. Sales carried the ball 22 times for 205 yards and 2
touchdowns. He also caught 4 passes for another 52 yards.
No. 2 - 2002 Holiday Bowl The Arizona St. Sun
Devils were seventeen and a half point underdogs to No.8 Kansas St.
Wildcats. The Sun Devils would have won the game 20-14 if the game ended
after the third quarter. Instead the Wildcats won 34-27 behind a 20
point fourth quarter performance.
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No. 2 - 2002 Holiday Bowl The Arizona St. Sun
Devils were seventeen and a half point underdogs to No.8 Kansas St.
Wildcats. The Sun Devils would have won the game 20-14 if the game ended
after the third quarter. Instead the Wildcats won 34-27 behind a 20
point fourth quarter performance.
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