Why oh why does everyone always think that a game in the past predicts the future? BCS Winner & Why.

Oh boy, this is a big one.

First of all, lets put this rematch stuff to bed. These two teams were going to meet in this game regardless of who won that first game. This game is an absolute fucking mess when it comes to perception. EVERYONE is basing their opinion on what happened in the meeting on November 5^th. There are one of two stands on this game, its either Alabama missed out on 12 points last game and are superior to LSU or LSU won last time and are being disrespected once again.

NOBODY is projecting what is going to happen in this game. Who cares what happened last game, it was last game! There are few things that you can take away from any past game regardless and apply it to a future game, those are match-ups and adjustments NOT stats and trends.

So to end everyone’s thinking, I will say everything there is to say about the previous game and how it applies to this game before projecting game flow and telling you who is going to win.

First off, no one is better at making adjustments in the second half of games then Nick Saban. He is an absolute machine when it comes to correcting mistakes and improving production. He gets a second chance against this LSU defense after losing to them on the field and having a private viewing session of the SEC Championship game as the Tide had the week off. Saban comes into this game knowing EXACTLY what he is going to get and I absolutely guarantee he will be able to capitalize on this game.

Last game on November 5^th, the Tide dominated through the air out gaining the Tigers 5 yards for every 2. Alabama was able to move the ball on LSU much like Oregon, West Virginia, Arkansas have as well this year. The truth is that this LSU defense is a little over hyped. Don’t get me wrong, they are EXTREMELY good, but NOT as good as they seem. They are phenomenal in the red zone when the field gets smaller and the angles get sharper. Alabama is going to be able to move the ball all game just like they did last game. They have the best player on the field in Trent Richardson and anytime that is the case, you have to believe they can score any time.

LSU mustered all they could against Alabama last game. Their quarterback situation is a mess. Lee or Jefferson, who the hell knows. Either way it is going to be a tall order for either to move the ball on Bama.

Now I could re-read stats and project who will repeat them, but that will be useless. I have told you the truth, Alabama will have more success moving the ball than LSU. If you are basing your opinion on the past game, you’re an idiot if you can’t predict that as well.

Now, if you want the truth about the game, here is how you get it.

I opened this game WAY back on December 4^th with Alabama listed at -1.5 while EVERY OTHER BOOK HAD LSU as a 1 or 2 point favorite. I was absolutely beat up and bashed around the social media websites saying I was crazy. Look where the line is today!? What I do is no secret, these lines move towards mine ESPECIALLY in big games, because I base my lines on concrete, not bullshit.

Alabama is the only team in the nation that would have been favored over LSU and the only team that is capable and will beat the Tigers.

Everyone has been eating up the Tigers plus the points so far. Some websites say that they are getting 52-59% of the bets. HILARIOUS. I do not know a book that wouldn’t be getting in excess of 65% of the wagers on LSU. At all 12 CGS shops, it is 71/29 LSU mainly because the line has not moved because it has not had to move. The biggest wager I have seen is $206,000 on the Tide -1.

Now, this game is going to be higher scoring then expected. Both coaches and teams have been so hell bent on beating the defenses they almost can not fail. That 9-6 game planted so many seeds in peoples heads it is phenomenal. Almost all of the meaningful wagers have come in on the under. No one has the balls to play the over. Here is what happens when teams are so skilled on one end and not the other and meet in a major game. The opposite happens. Why? Its simple. When under pressure and stress, you go with what you know best. Rather than playing to excel, your playing not to lose. Look at what happened with Oregon Auburn last year. Prime example of the opposite factor. The total was 75 and everyone was expecting these two prolific offenses to excel. 22-19 final. The players on offense were playing NOT TO LOSE rather than playing TO WIN. No one expected anyone on defense to do anything spectacular, this meant that the offensive players went as they were trained to do. The defensive players took chances and were able to take advantage of the text book offensive play. This is the biggest game a majority of these players will ever be in. You are going to see two teams playing absolutely text book defense. No one is going to go out of their way to take a risk and make a big play. This opens things up for the offense. Whether it will be double moves, play action passes, unexpected trick plays, the offenses will know what they are going to get and they will be able to take advantage of it. Alabama can move the ball with far more ease then the Tigers can, we have already gone over that. Alabama is going to be able to score at least three touchdowns in this game, I can’t see LSU being able to break 20.

There is your point spread difference, there is your match-up difference. Now, what about the game flow?