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Win percentage by sharps

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Prospect
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Joined: Dec, 2016
Posts: 11
Posted: #1
I have been tracking picks in NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA Basketball, and NCAA Football.  I am trying to figure out where my results stand with respects to sharp bettors.  Since NCAA is pretty much done I am starting to go back though and analyze now.  These numbers are for week 7, when I started, through today 12/30/2016.

NCAA against the spread: 72-41 (63.72%)
NCAA Best picks: 15-3 (83.33%)
NCAA Moneyline Underdogs: 31-28 (67.22% ROI)

I know these numbers are good, I am not trying to humble brag.  I am really trying to figure out where these rate against experts.  I see the section of the site with rankers for the last 30 days.  Is that only people who post here?  If so is there a list with all "experts"?
 
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Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 3689
Posted: #2
how about posting your plays!!!!
 
Prospect
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Joined: Dec, 2016
Posts: 11
Posted: #3
Assuming I can work through my data and find reliable predictors I will.  I am pretty sure Ive got hockey to a point I am happy with, Im just running it a bit longer to make sure nothing changes.  I loathe the idea of someone losing money on my takes.  Im at just over 1200 games across more than 50 days at this point.  Im up just under 300 units, but I am also in the middle of a second poor week.  I plan to cut the volume down significantly once Ive got my data to just the high expectation games, but right now I am just trying to figure out which those are.  With such a huge game sample, and a marginal ROI (9%) in a sport that often has dozens of games a day like NCAA basketball does my positive EV games could quickly turn to negative EV with additional data.  I am down 24 units in NCAA basketball and 12 in NBA over that span, clearly an issue. NHL and NCAA football seem to be reliable.  Ive still got a ton to work on with the others.
 
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Posted: #4
I agree with you, I hate recommending games bc i dont want people to lose money based on my opinion... I am very good at betting CFB, and I was having weeks where I was 20-4, 18-5, and every once in a while i would ask ppl on their thread, what do you think about a certain team this week bc I think it's a winner, but ppl really paid no attention.  Then I started to talk to ppl in threads, and they would say I was lying, and I had no clue what I was doing... So i felt like I would start documenting my plays, I never give an amount of how big of a play it should be, and im not even sure what my record is on my documented plays, but I think I've done about six write ups and went 5-1.  that doesnt include other recommendations I made in other ppl threads, like take UNC +3.5, Over in the Navy game, Over in the Air force game.  

I basically came to the conclusion that it's too much work to recommend picks, with no incentive.  last week I had a thread posting "In game spreads" I went 18-1 but i doubt anybody benefited, afterwards I was called a Liar again, even though all of the plays were time stamped.  I went 3-0 today, but it's so time consuming analyzing each game, that spending an hr to break the game down and explain why a certain team will cover, there really is no benefit
 
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Joined: Nov, 2015
Posts: 647
Posted: #5
alopez not true....there are a few who pay attention, you have swayed my opinion with logic and angles i didn't see. sad you and a lot of other good cappers stop posting because of sorry assclowns taking chit after they follow one post and lose....only truly stupid people think you must win everygame...if you and the other great cappers keep posting we all get info and chances are better to win.  anywho thx your posts helped save me cash i would have lost!
 
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Posted: #6
example I was going to go huge on pitt...they have been playing awesome... read what you wrote.. realized northwestern is one of the most jekyll/hyde teams ever. they would lose to a juco team one game and thrash a top5 the next...they showed up and won..The money I saved was put on bama after washing scored the first td...point being is you made me a few hundred dollars and didn't even know it!   I think anyone who is over 55% with their bets should post and help others.
 
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Posts: 687
Posted: #7
Some people like my self read a lot of post and seldom post anything I have been on here for 10 years or so and enjoy different angles on sports betting. Many times there are great posters on here that get upset and leave after harassment and just plain annoying people on here. NixonMask and Alopez I would be very interested in seeing both your angles on games I try many systems myself but have yet to break out with anything that makes me quit work nut I am hoping.
 
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Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 66896
Posted: #8
NO SUCH THINGS AS SHARPS 


Just another group of people who think they can make money gambling 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
Rookie
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Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 960
Posted: #9
Who you like tomorrow?
 
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Joined: Apr, 2013
Posts: 2002
Posted: #10
you can be a rich man with that win percentage
I don't think we believe it
"just win baby"
 
Captain
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Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 6055
Posted: #11
If your ROI is >10% that is exceptional over a period of >6 months.

It can be done....but posting picks?....that is walking through a  landmine because, a)  some  people won't believe you  b)  some will disagree with your methodology because it doesn't match their own  c) some will they'll be jealous of your success  d)  some will want to know every nuance of how you determine your plays.

The NFL and NCAA football forums here seems to be the worst in those regards, the other sports I haven't run across it as much.

If you post very good betting percentages without posting your picks, you are opening yourself to abuse here.

Four percent of bettors do win, if you've figured out what works and  you can control greed and fear, that's great, continued success to you.
 
Captain
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Posts: 6055
Posted: #12
not landmine.....minefield.
 
All-Star
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Posts: 10241
Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by alopez14325:

I agree with you, I hate recommending games bc i dont want people to lose money based on my opinion... I am very good at betting CFB, and I was having weeks where I was 20-4, 18-5, and every once in a while i would ask ppl on their thread, what do you think about a certain team this week bc I think it's a winner, but ppl really paid no attention.  Then I started to talk to ppl in threads, and they would say I was lying, and I had no clue what I was doing... So i felt like I would start documenting my plays, I never give an amount of how big of a play it should be, and im not even sure what my record is on my documented plays, but I think I've done about six write ups and went 5-1.  that doesnt include other recommendations I made in other ppl threads, like take UNC +3.5, Over in the Navy game, Over in the Air force game.  

I basically came to the conclusion that it's too much work to recommend picks, with no incentive.  last week I had a thread posting "In game spreads" I went 18-1 but i doubt anybody benefited, afterwards I was called a Liar again, even though all of the plays were time stamped.  I went 3-0 today, but it's so time consuming analyzing each game, that spending an hr to break the game down and explain why a certain team will cover, there really is no benefit

Guys..know that there are Bookie strong arms who come on here to beat you down....if you believe you help the avg joe....ignore them and offer what you want. If you want the adulation.....leave and don't post
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by NixonMask:


NCAA Best picks: 15-3 (83.33%)




 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
[url=https://www.zaiwunei.com]jailbait tumblr[/url] this is great
 
 
Captain
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Joined: Apr, 2008
Posts: 6776
Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

NO SUCH THINGS AS SHARPS 


Just another group of people who think they can make money gambling 


There is a good chance you are not from Vegas or familiar with our sports books....sharps are alive and real....here is a hint
most of them do not post on Covers....:)
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