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    All Forums | College Football

    **Wiseguy Diamonds**

    12 Next Last»
    Wally1317
    D-Town
    ONENESS129
    TRAIN69
    UNIMAN
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 6272
    Posts: 29
    12 Next Last»
     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jun, 2014
    Posts: 660
    Posted: Sep. 16, 2023 - 10:46 AM ET #1

    cloverWEEK 3 clover

    Minnesota ML +235 2u

    FIU ML +255 2u

    Virginia Tech ML +220 2u

    Charlotte +7.5 -110 2u

    UNLV +5 -110 2u

    SJSU ML +230 2u

    UNT ML +165 2u

     


    Model background:
     How long have you been betting spread favorites to parlaying heavy 3 teamers? To only see your research blown up by a single play, turnover, or quarter. A while? Yeah, me too. So, I decided to flip the script. Instead of follow the spread favorite + public perception that Vegas forces onto from the very start - i’m playing the numbers game now. This is an original formula that sifts through the daily slate to identify the dogs who are the diamond in the rough. Using statistics around the foundational basis of ‘not every win (or loss) is created equal’ i’m able to identify games where +EV/dogs have significant opportunities to cover and even win outright. And while Vegas is consumed by hooking in the next Joe this formula identifies its shortfalls or what I like to call diamonds in the rough! welcome

    -WiseguyWally

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    cloverWEEK 3 clover

    Minnesota ML +235 2u

    FIU ML +255 2u

    Virginia Tech ML +220 2u

    Charlotte +7.5 -110 2u

    UNLV +5 -110 2u

    SJSU ML +230 2u

    UNT ML +165 2u

     


    Model background:
     How long have you been betting spread favorites to parlaying heavy 3 teamers? To only see your research blown up by a single play, turnover, or quarter. A while? Yeah, me too. So, I decided to flip the script. Instead of follow the spread favorite + public perception that Vegas forces onto from the very start - i’m playing the numbers game now. This is an original formula that sifts through the daily slate to identify the dogs who are the diamond in the rough. Using statistics around the foundational basis of ‘not every win (or loss) is created equal’ i’m able to identify games where +EV/dogs have significant opportunities to cover and even win outright. And while Vegas is consumed by hooking in the next Joe this formula identifies its shortfalls or what I like to call diamonds in the rough! welcome

    -WiseguyWally

     
    D-Town
    D-Town
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2002
    Posts: 176986
    Posted: Sep. 16, 2023 - 10:52 AM ET #2

    clover

    Reply

    clover

     
    ONENESS129
    ONENESS129
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2016
    Posts: 4531
    Posted: Sep. 16, 2023 - 10:58 AM ET #3

    an_cheers Thank you for sharing.

    Reply

    an_cheers Thank you for sharing.

     
    TRAIN69
    TRAIN69
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2002
    Posts: 55658
    Posted: Sep. 16, 2023 - 11:00 AM ET #4

    an_popcorn

    Reply

    an_popcorn

     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
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    Joined: Jun, 2014
    Posts: 660
    Posted: Sep. 16, 2023 - 1:08 PM ET #5

    @D-Town let’s get after it today

    @ONENESS129 we love it! 

    @TRAIN69 an_cheers

    Reply

    @D-Town let’s get after it today

    @ONENESS129 we love it! 

    @TRAIN69 an_cheers

     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
    Rookie
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    Joined: Jun, 2014
    Posts: 660
    Posted: Sep. 17, 2023 - 4:22 PM ET #6

    **WEEK 3 RECAP**

    an_burningbag Minnesota ML +235 -2u

    moneybag FIU ML +255 5.1u

    an_burningbagVirginia Tech ML +220 -2u

    an_burningbagCharlotte +7.5 -110 -2u

    moneybag UNLV +5 +1.82u

    an_burningbag SJSU ML +230 -2u

    moneybagUNT ML +165 +3.3u

     

    3-4, +2.22u an_cheers

    Reply

    **WEEK 3 RECAP**

    an_burningbag Minnesota ML +235 -2u

    moneybag FIU ML +255 5.1u

    an_burningbagVirginia Tech ML +220 -2u

    an_burningbagCharlotte +7.5 -110 -2u

    moneybag UNLV +5 +1.82u

    an_burningbag SJSU ML +230 -2u

    moneybagUNT ML +165 +3.3u

     

    3-4, +2.22u an_cheers

     
    UNIMAN
    UNIMAN
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2014
    Posts: 10454
    Posted: Sep. 17, 2023 - 10:39 PM ET #7

    Congrats.

    an_cheers

    Reply

    Congrats.

    an_cheers

     
    steponaduck
    steponaduck
    Captain
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    Joined: Apr, 2017
    Posts: 5103
    Posted: Sep. 17, 2023 - 10:47 PM ET #8

    an_worship

    Until the wallet is full.
    Reply

    an_worship

     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jun, 2014
    Posts: 660
    Posted: Sep. 18, 2023 - 5:34 PM ET #9

    @UNIMAN @steponaduck

    hell yeah. See you next week

    Reply

    @UNIMAN @steponaduck

    hell yeah. See you next week

     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
    Rookie
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    Joined: Jun, 2014
    Posts: 660
    Posted: Sep. 21, 2023 - 6:21 PM ET #10

    an_clapWEEK 4an_clap 

     

    starting off of with a Thursday night matchup!

     

    Georgia St ML +185 2u

    Reply

    an_clapWEEK 4an_clap 

     

    starting off of with a Thursday night matchup!

     

    Georgia St ML +185 2u

     
    Hilljacks
    Hilljacks
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    Posts: 557
    Posted: Sep. 21, 2023 - 7:29 PM ET #11

    @Wally1317

     Could not agree more. GL

    Reply

    @Wally1317

     Could not agree more. GL

     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
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    Joined: Jun, 2014
    Posts: 660
    Posted: Sep. 22, 2023 - 5:58 PM ET #12

    @Hilljacks we cash! wire to wire

     

    moneybag Georgia St ML +185 +3.7u

    YTD: 4-4, +5.92u

     

    Reply

    @Hilljacks we cash! wire to wire

     

    moneybag Georgia St ML +185 +3.7u

    YTD: 4-4, +5.92u

     

     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
    Rookie
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    Joined: Jun, 2014
    Posts: 660
    Posted: Sep. 22, 2023 - 6:16 PM ET #13

    an_clapWEEK 4an_clap  FRIDAY night action

     

    Virginia +7.5 -102 2u

     

    YTD: 4-4, +5.92u

     

    Reply

    an_clapWEEK 4an_clap  FRIDAY night action

     

    Virginia +7.5 -102 2u

     

    YTD: 4-4, +5.92u

     

     
    steponaduck
    steponaduck
    Captain
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    Joined: Apr, 2017
    Posts: 5103
    Posted: Sep. 22, 2023 - 6:20 PM ET #14

    great job wally.

    Until the wallet is full.
    Reply

    great job wally.

     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
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    Joined: Jun, 2014
    Posts: 660
    Posted: Sep. 22, 2023 - 7:19 PM ET #15

    @steponaduck let's have some fun tonight

    Reply

    @steponaduck let's have some fun tonight

     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
    Rookie
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    Joined: Jun, 2014
    Posts: 660
    Posted: Sep. 23, 2023 - 9:28 AM ET #16

    moneybagVirginia +7.5 -102 2u

     

    YTD: 5-4, +7.88u 

    Reply

    moneybagVirginia +7.5 -102 2u

     

    YTD: 5-4, +7.88u 

     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jun, 2014
    Posts: 660
    Posted: Sep. 23, 2023 - 10:17 AM ET #17

    cloverWEEK 4 SATURDAY clover

     

    Tulsa ML +165 2u

    W Kentucky ML +152 2u

    Virginia Tech ML +188 2u

    Ball St +6.5 -114 2u

    New Mexico ML +146 2u

    Michigan St +7.5 -110 2u

    E Michigan ML +225 2u

    Arkansas St +6.5 -115 2u

    App St ML +130 2u

    Memphis ML +240 2u

    Miss. St ML +190 2u

     

    A full slate - let's go!!!!!!!

    Reply

    cloverWEEK 4 SATURDAY clover

     

    Tulsa ML +165 2u

    W Kentucky ML +152 2u

    Virginia Tech ML +188 2u

    Ball St +6.5 -114 2u

    New Mexico ML +146 2u

    Michigan St +7.5 -110 2u

    E Michigan ML +225 2u

    Arkansas St +6.5 -115 2u

    App St ML +130 2u

    Memphis ML +240 2u

    Miss. St ML +190 2u

     

    A full slate - let's go!!!!!!!

     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
    Rookie
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    Joined: Jun, 2014
    Posts: 660
    Posted: Sep. 24, 2023 - 12:42 PM ET #18

    **WEEK 4 RECAP**

     

    Woof...we put this in the rear mirror...we start looking ahead TODAY

     

    moneybagTulsa ML +165 +3.24u

    an_burningbagW Kentucky ML +152 -2u

    an_burningbagVirginia Tech ML +188 -2u

    an_burningbagBall St +6.5 -114 -2u

    moneybagNew Mexico ML +146 +2.92u

    an_burningbagMichigan St +7.5 -110 -2u

    an_burningbagE Michigan ML +225 -2u

    moneybagArkansas St +6.5 -115 +1.74u

    an_burningbagApp St ML +130 -2u

    an_burningbagMemphis ML +240 -2u

    an_burningbagMiss. St ML +190 -2u

     

    3-8, -8.1u

    YTD: 8-12, -0.22u

    Reply

    **WEEK 4 RECAP**

     

    Woof...we put this in the rear mirror...we start looking ahead TODAY

     

    moneybagTulsa ML +165 +3.24u

    an_burningbagW Kentucky ML +152 -2u

    an_burningbagVirginia Tech ML +188 -2u

    an_burningbagBall St +6.5 -114 -2u

    moneybagNew Mexico ML +146 +2.92u

    an_burningbagMichigan St +7.5 -110 -2u

    an_burningbagE Michigan ML +225 -2u

    moneybagArkansas St +6.5 -115 +1.74u

    an_burningbagApp St ML +130 -2u

    an_burningbagMemphis ML +240 -2u

    an_burningbagMiss. St ML +190 -2u

     

    3-8, -8.1u

    YTD: 8-12, -0.22u

     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
    Rookie
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    Posts: 660
    Posted: Sep. 28, 2023 - 5:34 PM ET #19

    an_speak WEEK 5 an_speak  THURSDAY night matchups

     

    MTSU ML +225 2u

    SHSU +7 -105 2u

     

    YTD: 8-12, -0.22u

    Reply

    an_speak WEEK 5 an_speak  THURSDAY night matchups

     

    MTSU ML +225 2u

    SHSU +7 -105 2u

     

    YTD: 8-12, -0.22u

     
    Fuse
    Fuse
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    Joined: Mar, 2016
    Posts: 84718
    Posted: Sep. 28, 2023 - 6:27 PM ET #20

    GL tonight W peaceclover

    Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
    Reply

    GL tonight W peaceclover

     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
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    Posts: 660
    Posted: Sep. 29, 2023 - 5:50 PM ET #21

    @Fuse an_cheers we keep grinding!

    an_burningbagMTSU ML +225 2u

    peace_5SHSU +7 -105 2u

     

    YTD: 8-13-1, -2.22u

    Reply

    @Fuse an_cheers we keep grinding!

    an_burningbagMTSU ML +225 2u

    peace_5SHSU +7 -105 2u

     

    YTD: 8-13-1, -2.22u

     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
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    Posts: 660
    Posted: Sep. 30, 2023 - 10:04 AM ET #22

    an_horse WEEK 5 an_horse  SATURDAY 

     

    Buffalo +130 2u

    E Michigan +280 2u

    Virginia +160 2u

    Baylor +260 2u

    Arkansas St +120 2u

    Coastal Carolina +210 2u

    East Carolina +150 2u

    So. Miss +6.5 -110 2u

     

    YTD: 8-13-1, -2.22u

    Reply

    an_horse WEEK 5 an_horse  SATURDAY 

     

    Buffalo +130 2u

    E Michigan +280 2u

    Virginia +160 2u

    Baylor +260 2u

    Arkansas St +120 2u

    Coastal Carolina +210 2u

    East Carolina +150 2u

    So. Miss +6.5 -110 2u

     

    YTD: 8-13-1, -2.22u

     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
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    Posts: 660
    Posted: Oct. 4, 2023 - 5:48 PM ET #23

    **WEEK 5 RECAP**

     

    moneybagBuffalo +130   +2.6u

    an_burningbagE Michigan +280   -2u

    an_burningbagVirginia +160   -2u

    moneybagBaylor +260   +5.2u

    moneybagArkansas St +120   +2.4u

    an_burningbagCoastal Carolina +210   -2u

    an_burningbagEast Carolina +150   -2u

    an_burningbagSo. Miss +6.5   -2u

     

     3-5, +0.2u

     

    YTD: 11-18-1, -2.02u

    Reply

    **WEEK 5 RECAP**

     

    moneybagBuffalo +130   +2.6u

    an_burningbagE Michigan +280   -2u

    an_burningbagVirginia +160   -2u

    moneybagBaylor +260   +5.2u

    moneybagArkansas St +120   +2.4u

    an_burningbagCoastal Carolina +210   -2u

    an_burningbagEast Carolina +150   -2u

    an_burningbagSo. Miss +6.5   -2u

     

     3-5, +0.2u

     

    YTD: 11-18-1, -2.02u

     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
    Rookie
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    Posts: 660
    Posted: Oct. 4, 2023 - 7:51 PM ET #24

    **WEEK 6 wednesday**

     

    FIU +202   2u

     

    YTD: 11-18-1, -2.02u

    Reply

    **WEEK 6 wednesday**

     

    FIU +202   2u

     

    YTD: 11-18-1, -2.02u

     
     
    Wally1317
    Wally1317
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jun, 2014
    Posts: 660
    Posted: Oct. 7, 2023 - 10:47 AM ET #25

    an_cheersWEEK 6 saturdayan_cheers

    Few plays only...vegas on point this week...that's fine we'll focus on a few then

     

    UNT +205   2u

    UAB +3.5 -115   2u

    USU +3 -110   2u

     

    YTD: 11-19-1, -4.02u

    Reply

    an_cheersWEEK 6 saturdayan_cheers

    Few plays only...vegas on point this week...that's fine we'll focus on a few then

     

    UNT +205   2u

    UAB +3.5 -115   2u

    USU +3 -110   2u

     

    YTD: 11-19-1, -4.02u

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