Wk 1 Final Score Predictions vs ATS

Question

After 2 years of breaking even, I had a monster upswing last season! What a rush that is. Definetly, looking to repeat. After analyzing last season's results, I've revised my betting strategy. Interested in your guys' thoughts. I try to predict final scores of a game and compare it to the spread and come up with a point differential. Every 3.5pts differential = 1 betting unit up to a max if 8 units.

0.0 - 3.5 = 1u
4.0 - 7.0 = 2u
7.5 - 10.5 = 3u
11.0 - 14.0 = 4u
14.5 - 17.5 = 5u
18.0 - 21.0 = 6u
21.5 - 24.5 = 7u
25.0 + = 8u

Notre Dame. (-4) 27
Texas 17
10 - 4 = 6pts = 2 betting units

Fresno State. 10
Nebraska. (-29) 48
38 - 29 = 9pts = 3 betting units

Southern Cal. (+10.5) 28
Alabama. 24
4 + 10.5 = 14.5pts = 5 betting units

Ole Miss. 26
Florida State (-5) 35
9 - 5 = 4pts = 2 betting units

What do you guys think the final scores of week 1 games are going to be?

Crookid · Answer

After 2 years of breaking even, I had a monster upswing last season! What a rush that is. Definetly, looking to repeat. After analyzing last season's results, I've revised my betting strategy. Interested in your guys' thoughts. I try to predict final scores of a game and compare it to the spread and come up with a point differential. Every 3.5pts differential = 1 betting unit up to a max if 8 units.

0.0 - 3.5 = 1u
4.0 - 7.0 = 2u
7.5 - 10.5 = 3u
11.0 - 14.0 = 4u
14.5 - 17.5 = 5u
18.0 - 21.0 = 6u
21.5 - 24.5 = 7u
25.0 + = 8u

Notre Dame. (-4) 27
Texas 17
10 - 4 = 6pts = 2 betting units

Fresno State. 10
Nebraska. (-29) 48
38 - 29 = 9pts = 3 betting units

Southern Cal. (+10.5) 28
Alabama. 24
4 + 10.5 = 14.5pts = 5 betting units

Ole Miss. 26
Florida State (-5) 35
9 - 5 = 4pts = 2 betting units

What do you guys think the final scores of week 1 games are going to be?

VEGASJASON · Answer

I think the problem with the system is your likely dependent on huge favorites. I do bet many large favorites in college football, however thinking a 40 point favorite will win by 50 is not the same as thinking a 7 point underdog will by a field goal. I think most people on here will say flat bets work best same on every game. I bet more in lines with 1 unit 2 unit 3 unit. I think more in terms of ranges even though my post in here do have score predictions. For instance I do not think ND will blowout Texas, but It is one of my most confident games of week 1. So my score prediction may only have them winning by 10-17 but for me its a 3 unit play.

StanThaCaddy · Answer

But what&#x27;s your strategy for predicting scores?? Is it just your gut

Crookid · Answer

I compare power rankings of team units, how rhey match up with the other teams&#x27; units, and how likely that is going to lead to a score.  They are but only 1 prediction for each game.  The more predictions for week 1 games there are in this thread, the stronger our collective edge is as sharps/gsmblers from these various inputs.  VegasJason has ND winning &gt; 17. I have ND by 10.  What other scores you guys got?

Crookid · Answer

I look at each teaams unit&#x27;s power ranking and how they match up against the other team and hiw likely that will translate into a score, defensive stop, or turnover.VegasJason had ND &gt; 17I have ND by 10.How do the rest of you see it?***if seeing this twice, its because I didnt think it posted earlier***

TD21 · Answer

So you bet every game?  How do decide when to pass?  ..... try PR #s as a baseline, then adjust for matchups and situational.TD

Crookid · Answer

Thanks, I&#x27;ll do that. I bet the best 20 (comblined NCAA&#x2B;NFL) games.  Just switched to heritage for their reduced lines so that should help with the juice from all these games.

Shua12collegeFB · Answer

You will never make money betting 20 games a week. Absolutely never. Even if you are betting ham sandwiches, at 20 games a week, eventually you will run out of bread. I like the variance method, and having your own lines to adjust to the Vegas lines, but you better be sharp and have -0- fan interest in the games you bet. Ultimately in my opinion, it comes down to the X&#x27;s and O&#x27;s along with the Willy&#x27;s and the Joe&#x27;s. Know the teams. Find strengths and weaknesses. Understand how playing a triple option team wears down your defensive line. There is a reason the citadel ALWAYS covers vs their annual SEC opponent. Situational football. How is a team on 3rd down. How are they in the Redzone? How is the offensive line? Senior leadership? Coaching stability. Look at over unders. Look at team total over unders. Kent state was 2-10 LY for team total over/unders. Very poor offensively. There is money to be made, but 20&#x2B; plays a week is asking to be juiced out of a profit. The more plays you make, the more likely you are to move towards the 44.5% Success rate that keeps you winning just enough to come back for more, and puts another hotel casino on the strip

VEGASJASON · Answer

I bet maybe 12-15 college games a week if its a deep card, Maybe 3-5 to NFL games a week. Then I bet a fair number of 4 team parlays on halftimes usually parlaying a team from behind and the over or a team from ahead and the over of 2 games with halftime lines up at the same time.

Super_Chicken · Answer

I have no idea how you come up with USC beating Alabama.  Just that one thing makes me think your system is worthless.  So even if this game was a pick you would still bet one unit on USC?

Crookid · Answer

USC is loaded on offense bringing back their entire O line and RB plus some recievers. I see them ball controlling with a couple of long, time chewing drives. On the other side of the ball, their DBs can nuetralize any Ridley homerun attempts. Bama is going to have to keep drives alive with an inexperienced O line/RB. Plus, this game is on a nuetral field. Even if Alabama wins, I doubt it will be by more than 10.

Its +5u if USC wins by 4 or loses by 10, makes no difference.

If the line was a pickem, Id still wager 2u on USC as I see them as a 4pt winner.

Shua12collegeFB · Answer

Your high off your No chance USC beats Alabama. None. I&#x27;ll take your money line bet right now. Any amount you want.

Crookid · Answer

I would take &#x2B;500 but I&#x27;ll do you a favor and let you save that bread.  ??

Crookid · Answer

Alabama&#x27;s O-line is going to be in troubLe week 1 with their All-SEC right guard getting a DUI.  Suspension looming.

TD21 · Answer

Cam Robinson is the most important lineman for Bama & he'll be out there. ... And Nick Saban doesn't care what you think about that.

If Alphonse Taylor is out, not near as much of a problem. He was demoted to 2nd string in spring practice due to weight issues. Perhaps a motivational ploy but now he may be further into the dog house of the HC who has to be annoyed with all the off-the-field type headlines.

https://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000675223/article/alabama-guard-alphonse-taylor-charged-with-dui

TD

LonghornHoosier · Answer

Alabama is not going to be in trouble in week 1...they are a plug and play machine, with 5 star talent back 5 star talent.   I would assume that the spread will be adjusted downward as a result of these integral losses.     I don&#x27;t know if Alabama will cover or not...USC will have to play at an optimal level to upset Alabama on a neutral field.   But, from my perspective, with a team as a disciplined as a Alabama, and considering it is a kick off and a national audience, Saban will have them ready.   A bigger loss, may be DC Smart...But, I still think Alabama will TCB and win, though ATS it will definitely be a no play for me...peace

Crookid · Answer

Notre Dame (-4) 27Texas 17Fresno State 10Nebraska (-29) 48Southern Cal (&#x2B;10.5) 28Alabama 24Ole Miss 26Florida State (-6.5) 35Hawaii 13Michigan (-41) 55Oregon State 12Minnesota (-10) 34UCLA 14Texas A&amp;M (-1.5) 28Oklahoma 31Houston (&#x2B;10) 28FIU 21Indiana (-8) 30LSU (-9) 24Wisconsin 9Clemson (-7.5) 34Auburn 17BYU (&#x2B;1) 24Arizona 21Kent State (&#x2B;19) 10Penn State 26Kansas State (&#x2B;15.5) 21Stanford 23Georgia Tech (-3) 21Boston College 17North Carolina (&#x2B;3) 38Georgia 35Rutgers (&#x2B;24) 17Washington 38Colorado State (&#x2B;8.5) 27Colorado 28South Carolina (&#x2B;3) 17Vanderbilt 13Miami (OH) 3Iowa (-28.5) 35TLDRUSC &#x2B;10.5.    $$$$$Minnesota -10 $$$$Kansas State &#x2B;15.5 $$$$Texas A&amp;M -1.5 $$$$Nebraska -29 $$$Clemson -7.5 $$$Colorado State &#x2B;8.5 $$$Notre Dame -4 $$Houston &#x2B;10 $$LSU -9 $$BYU &#x2B;1 $$North Carolina &#x2B;3 $$South Carolina &#x2B;3 $$Florida State -6.5 $Michigan -41 $Indiana -8 $Kent State &#x2B;19 $Georgia Tech -3 $Rutgers &#x2B;24 $Iowa -28.5 $

VEGASJASON · Answer

KST AND NC look like the worse picks to me, otherwise I think your score predictions look pretty good, Also a bit hard to see USC pulling the upset but I dont hate them with the points.

Crookid · Answer

Thanks VegasJason. I try to stay within reason and not pick too far from 1 or 2 stamdard deviations from the mean.  With the USC pick, I think they are nearly likely to lose by 7 as to win by 3 or 4.  The deviation isn&#x27;t much different.  But I do think of all potential outcomes, USC is a big favorite to be within 10 pts of Alabama.  The play with UNC/Georgia is likely the Over as neither team has the means of stopping the other and both teams special units can take it to the house.  Also, it is definetaly within 2 standard deviations of the mean that Stanford houses KSU by more than 15.5.  Still, I think KSU is a slight (6-5) favorite to stay within the spread given all possible outcomes but yeah I wont be surprised if The Cardinal lay the wood either.

LexingtonTim · Answer

Crookid- How do you see the UK/So Miss game coming out?

Crookid · Answer

Southern Miss (&#x2B;7) 31 $Kentucky 35

hillardoh · Answer

How do you have north Carolina beating Georgia No way this happens Running Back Nick Chubb will run them over enuff said and Georgia has homefield advantage

hillardoh · Answer

After 2 years your system is breaking even.  I hope you do better or change your system. I do like Michigan some places have Michigan at -42  I will still take it even though it goes against conventinal wisdom to bet a college team over 40 points It still looks like a easy huge win for Michigan cause Hawaii goes to play California in Austraila  they will be wore out because of the long flight

Crookid · Answer

*After 3 years, my system is proving to be &#x2B;EV* (2 years of even $ &#x2B; 1 year of making $), but I appreciate your concern.  If you have a tweak or two to add, Im all ears.  I also think Hawaii is gonna come to Ann Arbor unrested and they&#x27;ll get thrashed.  Solid point.

VEGASJASON · Answer

Not sure I have mentioned this in any threads, I am really starting to like SO Miss outright over Kentucky.

Wk 1 Final Score Predictions vs ATS

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