Not the kind of start to the season that was expected with Ball State absolutely hammering Connecticut State but it happens and sometimes lines (and teams) are hard to read. Back at it again for the rest of the week.
Here are the plays, tail if you wish and good luck to all!
The Syracuse Orangemen have 15 total wins in the last four seasons. That's only some 3.8 wins per year. One of the angles to follow in this one is that Syracuse has two relatively easy games coming up next against Wagner and Connecticut so their sense of urgency to win might not be the same as it would be if the ACC schedule was starting next week. The Orange have a very solid QB in Eric Dungey, who was also the leading rusher on the team in 2017, but they do lose their TOP 2 WIDE RECEIVERS FROM 2017 in WR Steve Ishmael and WR Ervin Phillips who combined 2251 Receiving Yards and 11 Receiving Touchdowns in 2017. How in the world do you replace that in one game? The Orange O-Line is very suspect and Broncos D is actually pretty solid. Broncos DB Juwan Dowels played 24 games for Syracuse and will know a thing or two about this offense.
Western Michigan has nothing to lose in this game but wait they do. Next up for them is Michigan next week. This is not make or break for their season but a loss here would most likely mean an 0-2 start to the season and that's not the direction this team wants to take. QB Jon Wassink is finally healthy. He played 8 games for the Broncos in 2017 passing for 1391 yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, completing 64.2% of his passes for 14 Touchdowns and 4 Interceptions with a QB Rating of 144.6. Even if Syracuse finds a way to score at will and put up some points, Western Michigan has just as many weapons and the Friday Night home crowd is going to be wild enough to let them build momentum.
On the ATS side of things, Syracuse is a mess in August. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in August and despite a tremendous record against MAC Conference teams (spread wise) and despite being 4-0 or something in their last four season openers, they are in for a tough task tonight against a Western Michigan team that is 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus ACC Conference opponents and knows a thing or two about playing them tough. Western Michigan has also covered the spread in 9 of their last 12 non-conference games. Taking the Broncos and the points here.
Trend of the Game: Western Michigan is 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus ACC opponents.
Western Michigan 24, Syracuse 21
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2018 CFB Record: 0-1 ATS (-11.00 Units)
Not the kind of start to the season that was expected with Ball State absolutely hammering Connecticut State but it happens and sometimes lines (and teams) are hard to read. Back at it again for the rest of the week.
Here are the plays, tail if you wish and good luck to all!
The Syracuse Orangemen have 15 total wins in the last four seasons. That's only some 3.8 wins per year. One of the angles to follow in this one is that Syracuse has two relatively easy games coming up next against Wagner and Connecticut so their sense of urgency to win might not be the same as it would be if the ACC schedule was starting next week. The Orange have a very solid QB in Eric Dungey, who was also the leading rusher on the team in 2017, but they do lose their TOP 2 WIDE RECEIVERS FROM 2017 in WR Steve Ishmael and WR Ervin Phillips who combined 2251 Receiving Yards and 11 Receiving Touchdowns in 2017. How in the world do you replace that in one game? The Orange O-Line is very suspect and Broncos D is actually pretty solid. Broncos DB Juwan Dowels played 24 games for Syracuse and will know a thing or two about this offense.
Western Michigan has nothing to lose in this game but wait they do. Next up for them is Michigan next week. This is not make or break for their season but a loss here would most likely mean an 0-2 start to the season and that's not the direction this team wants to take. QB Jon Wassink is finally healthy. He played 8 games for the Broncos in 2017 passing for 1391 yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, completing 64.2% of his passes for 14 Touchdowns and 4 Interceptions with a QB Rating of 144.6. Even if Syracuse finds a way to score at will and put up some points, Western Michigan has just as many weapons and the Friday Night home crowd is going to be wild enough to let them build momentum.
On the ATS side of things, Syracuse is a mess in August. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in August and despite a tremendous record against MAC Conference teams (spread wise) and despite being 4-0 or something in their last four season openers, they are in for a tough task tonight against a Western Michigan team that is 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus ACC Conference opponents and knows a thing or two about playing them tough. Western Michigan has also covered the spread in 9 of their last 12 non-conference games. Taking the Broncos and the points here.
Trend of the Game: Western Michigan is 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus ACC opponents.
You can buy this one down to 14.5 (already offered at some books on the strip) if you're not comfortable with the line, which has dropped in recent days, but I'm sticking to it and not wasting any money. 61% of the public is going with #13 Stanford in this game, mostly because San Diego State is an unknown and their star running back from a year ago is gone. Having said that, they have a history of star running backs and the latest should be RB Juwan Washington who rushed for 759 yards last season. The offensive line return 5 starters and Washington should have a big game and make some big plays in this one. How quickly the masses forget that the Aztecs beat Stanford at home last season even with RB Bryce Love going off. I like the offense to do just enough here despite losing Rashaad Penny to the NFL.
The look-ahead game is always a dangerous one and with USC on deck for the Cardinal, this is a game they need to win. Having said that did anyone see how horrendous their passing attack was in 2017 when they played the Aztecs (and lost)? The San Diego State defense brings back all their star players and despite allowing a massive game to RB Bryce Love in their meeting last year, they were one of the best teams against the run allowing only 132 rushing yards per game in 2017. I just don't see where the points are going to come from on the Stanford offensive side of things. They don't have anymore weapons than they had a year ago in this game and the Aztecs D is very underrated.
The stats all point to a Stanford win. They are 10-0 SU in their last 10 home openers and they are 14-0 SU under David Shaw versus non-conference opponents at home. Having said that, San Diego State beat them in 2017 and they come into this game on a three game winning streak versus PAC-12 Conference teams beating California in 2016 and then Arizona State and Stanford in 2017. Impressive stuff. San Diego State is also 6-1 ATS in their last seven Friday Night games 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. I don't know that San Diego State can win but they can keep this close against a Stanford team looking ahead to USC next week and still reeling from their loss to the Aztecs in 2017.
Trend of the Game: San Diego State Aztecs 6-1 ATS in their last seven Friday Night games.
Stanford 27, San Diego State State 20
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San Diego State Aztecs +14 (10 Units)
You can buy this one down to 14.5 (already offered at some books on the strip) if you're not comfortable with the line, which has dropped in recent days, but I'm sticking to it and not wasting any money. 61% of the public is going with #13 Stanford in this game, mostly because San Diego State is an unknown and their star running back from a year ago is gone. Having said that, they have a history of star running backs and the latest should be RB Juwan Washington who rushed for 759 yards last season. The offensive line return 5 starters and Washington should have a big game and make some big plays in this one. How quickly the masses forget that the Aztecs beat Stanford at home last season even with RB Bryce Love going off. I like the offense to do just enough here despite losing Rashaad Penny to the NFL.
The look-ahead game is always a dangerous one and with USC on deck for the Cardinal, this is a game they need to win. Having said that did anyone see how horrendous their passing attack was in 2017 when they played the Aztecs (and lost)? The San Diego State defense brings back all their star players and despite allowing a massive game to RB Bryce Love in their meeting last year, they were one of the best teams against the run allowing only 132 rushing yards per game in 2017. I just don't see where the points are going to come from on the Stanford offensive side of things. They don't have anymore weapons than they had a year ago in this game and the Aztecs D is very underrated.
The stats all point to a Stanford win. They are 10-0 SU in their last 10 home openers and they are 14-0 SU under David Shaw versus non-conference opponents at home. Having said that, San Diego State beat them in 2017 and they come into this game on a three game winning streak versus PAC-12 Conference teams beating California in 2016 and then Arizona State and Stanford in 2017. Impressive stuff. San Diego State is also 6-1 ATS in their last seven Friday Night games 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. I don't know that San Diego State can win but they can keep this close against a Stanford team looking ahead to USC next week and still reeling from their loss to the Aztecs in 2017.
Trend of the Game: San Diego State Aztecs 6-1 ATS in their last seven Friday Night games.
So much controversy around the Rutgers program in the off-season and in recent weeks but often that can bring a group of guys even close together. All of that will have to be put aside at 12:00pm ET as the Scarlet Knights make their 2018 debut against Texas State who are a stripped down program from a few years back who are supposed to have their strongest roster in the last three seasons. This team has gone 7-29 SU over the last three seasons. There is not a single QB on this roster who has any NCAA gametime experience so they will all be making their debuts on the road against a pretty damn good team who despite losing some guys on defense can still make some plays. I fully expect Rutgers to be the aggressor's on the defensive side of things.
On offense Rutgers will be using first year, and true freshman, QB Artur Sitkowski who had a tremendous Spring Game back in April and managed to torch the other team for almost 300 yards and 3 touchdown passes. Rutgers had one of the worst passing offense in the NCAA last season ranking 124th in the Nation. That should change with the arrival of Sitkowski and the new Offensive Coordinator is John McNulty who is known for his big chunk plays and big play ability. As for the defensive side of things it's worth mentioning that Rutgers have the most experienced secondary in the entire Country and they are facing a brand new QB who has never played a down in the NCAA.
Looking back at history, Texas State have been road underdogs of -14 to -17 three times in their history and they have gone 0-3 ATS losing to Wyoming by 35 in 2011, again to Wyoming in 2017 this time by 35 Points and then to UL Lafayette by 17 last October. Looking back at the last few seasons Rutgers have been good in September and gone 5-2 ATS in seven games. Texas State is 2-5 ATS in that same time span of September and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. I will go with Rutgers to build on that off-field turmoil and turn this into a monster win.
Trend of the Game: Texas State is 0-3 ATS all-time when underdog of 14 to 17 Points on the road.
Rutgers 42, Texas State 10
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Rutgers Scarlet Knights -16.5 (10 Units)
So much controversy around the Rutgers program in the off-season and in recent weeks but often that can bring a group of guys even close together. All of that will have to be put aside at 12:00pm ET as the Scarlet Knights make their 2018 debut against Texas State who are a stripped down program from a few years back who are supposed to have their strongest roster in the last three seasons. This team has gone 7-29 SU over the last three seasons. There is not a single QB on this roster who has any NCAA gametime experience so they will all be making their debuts on the road against a pretty damn good team who despite losing some guys on defense can still make some plays. I fully expect Rutgers to be the aggressor's on the defensive side of things.
On offense Rutgers will be using first year, and true freshman, QB Artur Sitkowski who had a tremendous Spring Game back in April and managed to torch the other team for almost 300 yards and 3 touchdown passes. Rutgers had one of the worst passing offense in the NCAA last season ranking 124th in the Nation. That should change with the arrival of Sitkowski and the new Offensive Coordinator is John McNulty who is known for his big chunk plays and big play ability. As for the defensive side of things it's worth mentioning that Rutgers have the most experienced secondary in the entire Country and they are facing a brand new QB who has never played a down in the NCAA.
Looking back at history, Texas State have been road underdogs of -14 to -17 three times in their history and they have gone 0-3 ATS losing to Wyoming by 35 in 2011, again to Wyoming in 2017 this time by 35 Points and then to UL Lafayette by 17 last October. Looking back at the last few seasons Rutgers have been good in September and gone 5-2 ATS in seven games. Texas State is 2-5 ATS in that same time span of September and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. I will go with Rutgers to build on that off-field turmoil and turn this into a monster win.
Trend of the Game: Texas State is 0-3 ATS all-time when underdog of 14 to 17 Points on the road.
At first glance the number looks way too high considering the Terps went to Austin last year and took out the Horns in the season opener and that this game is being played at Fed Ex Field in Landover, Maryland but there is a reason for everything. Texas did not forget that loss. Some will argue that Maryland went into a tail spin after the win and that's the reason they finished 4-8 SU on the season. Tom Herman has reminded his team for weeks now of 51-41 home loss to Maryland. QB Sam Ehlinger gets the call and he should be able to do some damage against this Terps defense that really had no clue how to stop the Horns in 2017 but the Horns defense had no clue how to stop the Terps in that same game. Don't expect anything close to that in this one.
Maryland is a disaster. A real disaster. Head Coach DJ Durkin is on admin leave because one of the Terps linemen died back in June and investigation uncovered what many are calling "brutal" off-season workouts that may or may not have contributed to the deather of the player. Matt Canada comes over from LSU and has only been in charge for a little while but this is a tall task. Texas has a tremendous run-defense that finished 8th in the Country in 2017 and with so many question marks at the Maryland QB position they should be able to make some big plays and score in this one. The entire O-Line is back for Maryland but it won't matter without a QB to rely on.
Not too many know this but Texas is absolute $$$ at this price going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games (home or away) where they are favored by 10 to 14 Points in a game. They are 10-0 SU in those same games. Texas is 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games and they have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 non-conference games. Maryland comes into this in complete turmoil and it doesn't help that they are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games and finished 2017 on a 2-6 ATS run. I'm going Texas and going Texas to win big here in a great revenge spot with Tom Herman all fired up.
Trend of the Game: Texas is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games (home or away) as a favorite of 10 to 14 Points.
Texas 47, Maryland 7
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Texas Longhorns -13.5 (10 Units)
At first glance the number looks way too high considering the Terps went to Austin last year and took out the Horns in the season opener and that this game is being played at Fed Ex Field in Landover, Maryland but there is a reason for everything. Texas did not forget that loss. Some will argue that Maryland went into a tail spin after the win and that's the reason they finished 4-8 SU on the season. Tom Herman has reminded his team for weeks now of 51-41 home loss to Maryland. QB Sam Ehlinger gets the call and he should be able to do some damage against this Terps defense that really had no clue how to stop the Horns in 2017 but the Horns defense had no clue how to stop the Terps in that same game. Don't expect anything close to that in this one.
Maryland is a disaster. A real disaster. Head Coach DJ Durkin is on admin leave because one of the Terps linemen died back in June and investigation uncovered what many are calling "brutal" off-season workouts that may or may not have contributed to the deather of the player. Matt Canada comes over from LSU and has only been in charge for a little while but this is a tall task. Texas has a tremendous run-defense that finished 8th in the Country in 2017 and with so many question marks at the Maryland QB position they should be able to make some big plays and score in this one. The entire O-Line is back for Maryland but it won't matter without a QB to rely on.
Not too many know this but Texas is absolute $$$ at this price going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games (home or away) where they are favored by 10 to 14 Points in a game. They are 10-0 SU in those same games. Texas is 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games and they have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 non-conference games. Maryland comes into this in complete turmoil and it doesn't help that they are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games and finished 2017 on a 2-6 ATS run. I'm going Texas and going Texas to win big here in a great revenge spot with Tom Herman all fired up.
Trend of the Game: Texas is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games (home or away) as a favorite of 10 to 14 Points.
So many road points and so much road chalk but anyone who follows this team knows that when they are favored by this much away from home, and it doesn't happen all that often, the books know that something is up. In this case they know that Houston should really be a 30+ point favorite and they would have been any other season but they have a lot of guys to replace on offense this season and it seems the trust is not there to reproduce offensively what they did in the last few seasons. Despite all the losses on both sides of the ball, Houston re-loaded with key transfers from Notre Dame, Ole Miss and TCU.
Rice is already 1-0 on the season. They played earlier last week (still part of Week 1 Regular Season) and were riding a 10 game losing streak coming into the game but they managed to grab a win against Prairie View A&M (who???) while coming from behind to win 31-28. Things won't be that simple against this Houston offense and defense. Arguably the best player in the Country plays for Houston (Defensive Tackle Ed Oliver) and they have re-loaded on the defensive side of things. RB Emmanuel Esupka rushed for 173 against Prairie View but he won't come close to that in this game. I am calling for Houston's defense to score some points in this game.
In the last four meetings between these teams, Houston has won all four and by an average of 25.0 Points Per Game. The Cougars have only been favored on the road by 24 or more points three times in their history and they went 3-0 ATS in those games beating UAB by 43 in 2011 while favored by -28, Tulane by 56 in 2011 while favored by -34 and then again in 2016 when they beat Texas State by 61 Points as a -31. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus CUSA Conference opponents and are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games. Rice is not a good team and they are 0-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Give me Houston!
Trend of the Game: Rice is 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
Houston 54, Rice 16
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Houston Cougars -26 (10 Units)
So many road points and so much road chalk but anyone who follows this team knows that when they are favored by this much away from home, and it doesn't happen all that often, the books know that something is up. In this case they know that Houston should really be a 30+ point favorite and they would have been any other season but they have a lot of guys to replace on offense this season and it seems the trust is not there to reproduce offensively what they did in the last few seasons. Despite all the losses on both sides of the ball, Houston re-loaded with key transfers from Notre Dame, Ole Miss and TCU.
Rice is already 1-0 on the season. They played earlier last week (still part of Week 1 Regular Season) and were riding a 10 game losing streak coming into the game but they managed to grab a win against Prairie View A&M (who???) while coming from behind to win 31-28. Things won't be that simple against this Houston offense and defense. Arguably the best player in the Country plays for Houston (Defensive Tackle Ed Oliver) and they have re-loaded on the defensive side of things. RB Emmanuel Esupka rushed for 173 against Prairie View but he won't come close to that in this game. I am calling for Houston's defense to score some points in this game.
In the last four meetings between these teams, Houston has won all four and by an average of 25.0 Points Per Game. The Cougars have only been favored on the road by 24 or more points three times in their history and they went 3-0 ATS in those games beating UAB by 43 in 2011 while favored by -28, Tulane by 56 in 2011 while favored by -34 and then again in 2016 when they beat Texas State by 61 Points as a -31. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus CUSA Conference opponents and are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games. Rice is not a good team and they are 0-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Give me Houston!
Trend of the Game: Rice is 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
The chalk continues to add up for me in the early games and I'm not sure how I feel about that. I do know this Massachusetts team has struggled pretty badly against Boston College in recent seasons losing to them 26-7 in 2016 and 30-7 in 2014 and 45-17 in 2011. You get the drift. We will probably see a lot of people back UMass in this one because of their 63-15 win over an FCS team to record the first win of the college football season but this is a whole different animal. Having said that UMass do average some 40+ points per game in their last eight games dating back to 2017 but Boston College's defense will be tough in the trenches.
This is officially an in-state rivalry whether the two teams like to admit it or not. All five starters are back on the offensive line and i say that because with a stud RB like AJ Dillon manning the backfield, you need guys who can block. I am calling for Dillon to go off for 200+ rushing yards in this game behind that monster line and with a bit of inexperience at the QB position it is pretty obvious that Boston College will look to dominate and control the line of scrimmage. In the last two meetings between these teams the Eagles outyarded the Minutemen 511-202 in 2014 and then again 344-122 in 2016. I don't expect that to change at all regardless of the offense Mark Whipple has going on at Mass. BC is just too good at the line and in the trenches and Dillon should run wild in this one.
Did you know that Boston, in their school history, has been favored by 17 to 21 Points at home just seven times! Yes that's it, just seven and in those games they are 6-1 ATS and have never lost. This seems to be a sweet number for this team. Boston College comes into this game on an 8-1-1 ATS run dating back to last season in their last 10 games. An interesting stat about Massachusetts is that they are 2-5 in their last seven games when coming off a game where they accumulate 450+ total yards of offense. Otherwise they have been spread darlings. I like Boston College to come out with a huge win here.
Trend of the Game: Boston College is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Boston College 44, Massaschusetts 17
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Boston College Eagles -17.5 (10 Units)
The chalk continues to add up for me in the early games and I'm not sure how I feel about that. I do know this Massachusetts team has struggled pretty badly against Boston College in recent seasons losing to them 26-7 in 2016 and 30-7 in 2014 and 45-17 in 2011. You get the drift. We will probably see a lot of people back UMass in this one because of their 63-15 win over an FCS team to record the first win of the college football season but this is a whole different animal. Having said that UMass do average some 40+ points per game in their last eight games dating back to 2017 but Boston College's defense will be tough in the trenches.
This is officially an in-state rivalry whether the two teams like to admit it or not. All five starters are back on the offensive line and i say that because with a stud RB like AJ Dillon manning the backfield, you need guys who can block. I am calling for Dillon to go off for 200+ rushing yards in this game behind that monster line and with a bit of inexperience at the QB position it is pretty obvious that Boston College will look to dominate and control the line of scrimmage. In the last two meetings between these teams the Eagles outyarded the Minutemen 511-202 in 2014 and then again 344-122 in 2016. I don't expect that to change at all regardless of the offense Mark Whipple has going on at Mass. BC is just too good at the line and in the trenches and Dillon should run wild in this one.
Did you know that Boston, in their school history, has been favored by 17 to 21 Points at home just seven times! Yes that's it, just seven and in those games they are 6-1 ATS and have never lost. This seems to be a sweet number for this team. Boston College comes into this game on an 8-1-1 ATS run dating back to last season in their last 10 games. An interesting stat about Massachusetts is that they are 2-5 in their last seven games when coming off a game where they accumulate 450+ total yards of offense. Otherwise they have been spread darlings. I like Boston College to come out with a huge win here.
Trend of the Game: Boston College is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
One of the absolute best smaller conference underdogs we have seen over the course of the last 10 seasons is back and they are back as double digit underdogs against a team that is only favored because of their school's reputation. Northern Illinois is NOT scared of these power conference opponents. They never have been. Under Head Coach Rod Carey, Northern Illinois is 4-1 SU (not spread but straight up) against Big 10 Conference opponents. That is absolutely wild. This team brings back 17 starters overall, they are supposed to win the MAC West Conference title. Carey's first ever game coaching NIU was at Iowa and it was a 30-27 win in 2013. This team is loaded with weapons and facing a Hawkeyes team that is not returning a single linebacker with a game of experience. First that happens under Kirk Ferentz.
Iowa is favored in this one but lookout. There is so much hoopla around Kirk Ferentz and the one win he needs to become the all-time leader in wins at Iowa. He just needs one more but Northern Illinois is not about to sit there and let him have it. Iowa has key suspensions on both sides of the ball for this game as two of their top offensive linemen are suspended as are two of their top defensive linemen. That does not bode well against an upset minded NIU team who are going to come out guns blazing like they always do under Carey. I think Iowa is in trouble in this one.
Aside from the Huskies being 4-1 SU lifetime under Rod Carey versus Big 10 Conference opponents, Northern Illinois is also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on the road as an underdog of 7 to 13 Points. They went 6-4 SU in those games including wins at Northwestern and Nebraska under Carey. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last four September games and they are an incredible 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games versus Big Ten Opponents. Iowa is 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus MAC Conference opponents and Rod Carey is the master of pulling huge road upsets (6-4 as a dog of 7 to 13 points on the road is incredible). I say NIU win again!
Trend of the Game: Northern Illinois is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games versus Big Ten Conference opponents.
Northern Illinois 24, Iowa 20
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Northern Illinois Huskies +10.5 (10 Units)
One of the absolute best smaller conference underdogs we have seen over the course of the last 10 seasons is back and they are back as double digit underdogs against a team that is only favored because of their school's reputation. Northern Illinois is NOT scared of these power conference opponents. They never have been. Under Head Coach Rod Carey, Northern Illinois is 4-1 SU (not spread but straight up) against Big 10 Conference opponents. That is absolutely wild. This team brings back 17 starters overall, they are supposed to win the MAC West Conference title. Carey's first ever game coaching NIU was at Iowa and it was a 30-27 win in 2013. This team is loaded with weapons and facing a Hawkeyes team that is not returning a single linebacker with a game of experience. First that happens under Kirk Ferentz.
Iowa is favored in this one but lookout. There is so much hoopla around Kirk Ferentz and the one win he needs to become the all-time leader in wins at Iowa. He just needs one more but Northern Illinois is not about to sit there and let him have it. Iowa has key suspensions on both sides of the ball for this game as two of their top offensive linemen are suspended as are two of their top defensive linemen. That does not bode well against an upset minded NIU team who are going to come out guns blazing like they always do under Carey. I think Iowa is in trouble in this one.
Aside from the Huskies being 4-1 SU lifetime under Rod Carey versus Big 10 Conference opponents, Northern Illinois is also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on the road as an underdog of 7 to 13 Points. They went 6-4 SU in those games including wins at Northwestern and Nebraska under Carey. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last four September games and they are an incredible 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games versus Big Ten Opponents. Iowa is 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus MAC Conference opponents and Rod Carey is the master of pulling huge road upsets (6-4 as a dog of 7 to 13 points on the road is incredible). I say NIU win again!
Trend of the Game: Northern Illinois is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games versus Big Ten Conference opponents.
This is a game I want to absolutely pound but Mike Leach is notorious for being bad in season openers and I believe the Cougars have won only one time under Leach in a season opener and that was in 2017 so there is hope. Having said that how will Washington State come out after the death (suicide) of QB Tyler Helinski who was supposed to be the "star" starter on this team in 2018? QB Gardenr Minshew was brougt in from East Carolina where he threw for 3487 total yards and 24 Touchdown passes in 17 games played for the Pirates. He should start in this one against a Wyoming defense that was very solid last week but against a New Mexico State squad that did not cross the 50 until one of the final drives of the game. Mike Leach teams don't do that. It might take a while to get going but Washington State will move that ball.
Josh Allen is gone. Now playing in the NFL for the Buffalo Bills which begs the question, which team will most miss their quarterback from a season ago. Luke Falk with Washington State and Josh Allen with the Cowboys. Nonetheless a lot of experts are picking Wyoming to win this game and move to 2-0 SU on the season but things won't be as easy as they were last week that's for sure. They will not be rushing for 312 yards in this one. The debate right now is whether Wazzu can stop the power run of Wyoming in this one. I say they can. They will load up on first down to force second and long to put this game in the hands of a redshirt freshman QB.
These two teams have met 6 times and Washington State has won four of those times. I took a look at their history as a short point favorite away from home and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when favored by 1 to 3 Points on the road with their last win coming in Eugene last October in a 33-10 beatdown of the Oregon Ducks. The sexy play will be Wyoming here and the sharps will probably be on it but the Cowboys have covered only 2 of their last 8 games played in September while Washington State are 5-2 ATS in their last seven played in the ninth month of the year. I think Leach and his guys are playing for Tyler here and they get a huge win on the road.
Trend of the Game: Washington State is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games as a favorite of 1 to 3 Points.
Washington State 28, Wyoming 21
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Washington State Cougars -1.5 (10 Units)
This is a game I want to absolutely pound but Mike Leach is notorious for being bad in season openers and I believe the Cougars have won only one time under Leach in a season opener and that was in 2017 so there is hope. Having said that how will Washington State come out after the death (suicide) of QB Tyler Helinski who was supposed to be the "star" starter on this team in 2018? QB Gardenr Minshew was brougt in from East Carolina where he threw for 3487 total yards and 24 Touchdown passes in 17 games played for the Pirates. He should start in this one against a Wyoming defense that was very solid last week but against a New Mexico State squad that did not cross the 50 until one of the final drives of the game. Mike Leach teams don't do that. It might take a while to get going but Washington State will move that ball.
Josh Allen is gone. Now playing in the NFL for the Buffalo Bills which begs the question, which team will most miss their quarterback from a season ago. Luke Falk with Washington State and Josh Allen with the Cowboys. Nonetheless a lot of experts are picking Wyoming to win this game and move to 2-0 SU on the season but things won't be as easy as they were last week that's for sure. They will not be rushing for 312 yards in this one. The debate right now is whether Wazzu can stop the power run of Wyoming in this one. I say they can. They will load up on first down to force second and long to put this game in the hands of a redshirt freshman QB.
These two teams have met 6 times and Washington State has won four of those times. I took a look at their history as a short point favorite away from home and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when favored by 1 to 3 Points on the road with their last win coming in Eugene last October in a 33-10 beatdown of the Oregon Ducks. The sexy play will be Wyoming here and the sharps will probably be on it but the Cowboys have covered only 2 of their last 8 games played in September while Washington State are 5-2 ATS in their last seven played in the ninth month of the year. I think Leach and his guys are playing for Tyler here and they get a huge win on the road.
Trend of the Game: Washington State is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games as a favorite of 1 to 3 Points.
What in the world are people doing here going all in on #15 USC to win this game by 4+ touchdowns? Before I even get into discussing the Trojans let's talk a bit about UNLV and how capable they are in this one. This is the same Rebels team that went to Columbus last season as a 40+ point underdog and managed to score 21 points against the Buckeyes defense and cover the big spread on the road. This is pretty much their MO. UNLV starting QB Armani Rogers is from Los Angeles and this is pretty much a homecoming for him. He was the Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year in 2017 and was featured in an offense that ranked TOP 20 in the Country running the ball. They will obviously have to score in this game if they want to keep up and like I mentioned before, they managed to drop 21 in Columbus last season. Scoring should not be a problem.
Sam Darnold is gone so now what for USC? You are telling me that they are going to win by 4+ touchdowns with a brand new QB who is coming into the season as an 18 year old true freshman? Yikes. I just don't see it. Chris Fallica will probably have UNLV as one of his "BEAR PICKS" on College GameDay in the morning for this reason lone. QB JT Daniels is the real deal and he was the real deal in High School but this is the big show and it could take a while to get going. UNLV's defense was horrendous in 2017 but changes were made personnel wise in the off-season and although I don't think we see a huge improvement, I do believe they can make some plays on a true frosh QB who will obviously be feeling a lot of nerves. For this reason alone I don't think USC runs away with this one.
What's funny about UNLV is that in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 24+ Points they are 7-0 ATS but 0-7 SU in those same games. Under Head Coach Tony Sanchez they are 4-0 ATS in those same kind of games going to Michigan (losing by 21 as a +32.5), going to UCLA (losing by 21 as a +27), going to Boise State (losing by 17 as a +28.5) and going to Ohio State (losing by 33 as a +40.5). UNLV is 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus PAC 12 Conference opponents. USC is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played in September and 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games. UNLV won't win but they will cover this huge number.
Trend of the Game: UNLV is 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games as an underdog of 24+ points.
Southern California 38, UNLV 28
more to come...
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UNLV Rebels +26 (10 Units)
What in the world are people doing here going all in on #15 USC to win this game by 4+ touchdowns? Before I even get into discussing the Trojans let's talk a bit about UNLV and how capable they are in this one. This is the same Rebels team that went to Columbus last season as a 40+ point underdog and managed to score 21 points against the Buckeyes defense and cover the big spread on the road. This is pretty much their MO. UNLV starting QB Armani Rogers is from Los Angeles and this is pretty much a homecoming for him. He was the Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year in 2017 and was featured in an offense that ranked TOP 20 in the Country running the ball. They will obviously have to score in this game if they want to keep up and like I mentioned before, they managed to drop 21 in Columbus last season. Scoring should not be a problem.
Sam Darnold is gone so now what for USC? You are telling me that they are going to win by 4+ touchdowns with a brand new QB who is coming into the season as an 18 year old true freshman? Yikes. I just don't see it. Chris Fallica will probably have UNLV as one of his "BEAR PICKS" on College GameDay in the morning for this reason lone. QB JT Daniels is the real deal and he was the real deal in High School but this is the big show and it could take a while to get going. UNLV's defense was horrendous in 2017 but changes were made personnel wise in the off-season and although I don't think we see a huge improvement, I do believe they can make some plays on a true frosh QB who will obviously be feeling a lot of nerves. For this reason alone I don't think USC runs away with this one.
What's funny about UNLV is that in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 24+ Points they are 7-0 ATS but 0-7 SU in those same games. Under Head Coach Tony Sanchez they are 4-0 ATS in those same kind of games going to Michigan (losing by 21 as a +32.5), going to UCLA (losing by 21 as a +27), going to Boise State (losing by 17 as a +28.5) and going to Ohio State (losing by 33 as a +40.5). UNLV is 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus PAC 12 Conference opponents. USC is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played in September and 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games. UNLV won't win but they will cover this huge number.
Trend of the Game: UNLV is 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games as an underdog of 24+ points.
Agree with Rutgers. Coach Ash runs up the score vs over-matched competition. Probably to give his teams confidence to spare when they end up on the wrong end of 0-56 scores in conference play.
Like that you use trends, angels and team history. Gotta admit, I didn't know about Ferentz needing one more win to be #1 all time in wins at Iowa. I kind of see that angle differently than you, though. I think the Iowa kids use it as motivation...but I'm not betting the game so not against the N ILL pick.
Big write-ups make me want to write big responses but...I'll behave.
Good luck this week.
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Love me some big-a$$...writeups!
Agree with Rutgers. Coach Ash runs up the score vs over-matched competition. Probably to give his teams confidence to spare when they end up on the wrong end of 0-56 scores in conference play.
Like that you use trends, angels and team history. Gotta admit, I didn't know about Ferentz needing one more win to be #1 all time in wins at Iowa. I kind of see that angle differently than you, though. I think the Iowa kids use it as motivation...but I'm not betting the game so not against the N ILL pick.
Big write-ups make me want to write big responses but...I'll behave.
This is your typical "Revenge" spot in College Football and some of the experts out there are taking the bait but I for one am not. No way. Not the way North Carolina plays in openers and not the way they have handled themselves in the off-season. This number is actually low. There are 13 suspended Tar Heels for this game and that doesn't even include Aaron Crawford who is also out with injury for the Heels. Sheesh. I will throw in a little tidbit from one of my favorite on-air personalities Chris "The Bear" Fallica who mentioned that North Carolina is 0-6 ATS in their six seasons under Larry Fedora when playing an FBS opponent for the first time in the season. That's incredible. This is the longest trip in history for the Tar Heels and that is sure to take a toll on the entire team. The offense will be iffy all game in this one with as dual threat QB Nathan Elliott takes over.
Cal is by no means one of the top teams or even a threat to win the PAC 12 Conference this season but they did have some really promising performances in 2017. RB Patrick Laird being one of them. In his last five games last season he averaged close to 150 rushing yards per game and finished the season with close to 1150 rushing yards. They will struggle at times in this but they have some weapons in the air attack that should expose the suspensions on the North Carolina side. If they can get any kind of running game going against a very good Tar Heels D-Line then they will be able to control the pace of this game and I just don't see how the Heels can keep up.
Aside from Larry Fedora and the Heels being 0-6 ATS in his six season opening games versus FBS opponents, Cal comes into this game on an insane 9-1 ATS run when favored at home by 7-10 points which dates back all the way to 2006. It's not just season opener for Fedora, this Tar Heels team is 1-5 ATS in their last six September games and always seem to start slow. Cal finished last season on a 5-0 ATS run at home and are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Won't be pretty but Cal win this by 10+.
Trend of the Game: California is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games as a favorite of 7 to 10 points.
California 27, North Carolina 13
more to come...
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California Golden Bears -7.5 (10 Units)
This is your typical "Revenge" spot in College Football and some of the experts out there are taking the bait but I for one am not. No way. Not the way North Carolina plays in openers and not the way they have handled themselves in the off-season. This number is actually low. There are 13 suspended Tar Heels for this game and that doesn't even include Aaron Crawford who is also out with injury for the Heels. Sheesh. I will throw in a little tidbit from one of my favorite on-air personalities Chris "The Bear" Fallica who mentioned that North Carolina is 0-6 ATS in their six seasons under Larry Fedora when playing an FBS opponent for the first time in the season. That's incredible. This is the longest trip in history for the Tar Heels and that is sure to take a toll on the entire team. The offense will be iffy all game in this one with as dual threat QB Nathan Elliott takes over.
Cal is by no means one of the top teams or even a threat to win the PAC 12 Conference this season but they did have some really promising performances in 2017. RB Patrick Laird being one of them. In his last five games last season he averaged close to 150 rushing yards per game and finished the season with close to 1150 rushing yards. They will struggle at times in this but they have some weapons in the air attack that should expose the suspensions on the North Carolina side. If they can get any kind of running game going against a very good Tar Heels D-Line then they will be able to control the pace of this game and I just don't see how the Heels can keep up.
Aside from Larry Fedora and the Heels being 0-6 ATS in his six season opening games versus FBS opponents, Cal comes into this game on an insane 9-1 ATS run when favored at home by 7-10 points which dates back all the way to 2006. It's not just season opener for Fedora, this Tar Heels team is 1-5 ATS in their last six September games and always seem to start slow. Cal finished last season on a 5-0 ATS run at home and are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Won't be pretty but Cal win this by 10+.
Trend of the Game: California is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games as a favorite of 7 to 10 points.
The Cincinnati Bearcats are traditionally a horrendous road team who play even worse when they are underdogs of two touchdowns or more away from home. Everyone knows this. Now they head to Los Angeles to take on Chip Kelly in his first game in charge of UCLA Football? Yikes. Having said that I can see why so many are on the Bearcats here aside from the off-filed issues UCLA is dealing with. Cincinnati is the one and only team in the AAC Conference that is returning their leading passer, rusher and receiver (thank you for that tidbit Covers.com). Having said that I just don't trust QB Hayden Moore to lead these guys on the road in Game #1 of the season. He has pressure from others this season and that will either help him or hurt him. The Bearcats are coming off back to back losing season and their history in these types of games speaks for itself.
Welcome to Los Angeles Chip Killy and his 44-5 SU college football record as a head coach. Sure the Bruins have a ton of suspensions and issues in the leadup to this game and QB Josh Rosen is obviously gone so there is a question mark there but it's Chip Kelly. He's always got something up his sleeve. I do think QB Wilton Speight gets the nod in this one after transferring from Michigan in the off-season. The Rose Bowl should be rocking for Kelly's debut and although there are a ton of questions marks on the offensive side of things, I'm just not sure Cincinnati is able to prepare for his complex style of attacking and coaching. It will be tough for Cincinnati.
Now to go back to what I was referring to about Cincinnati being a great fade on the road as a big dog, the Bearcats are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games as an underdog of 10 to 17 points dating all the way back to 2014. This is not a good spot for them. UCLA is notorious for slow starts in September too and they have been a terrible bet in their first four games of each of the last few seasons but the Chip Kelly era is here and I am willing to take a shot against a terrible road dog.
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games dating back to 2004 when an underdog of 10-17 points.
UCLA 43, Cincinnati 17
more to come...
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UCLA Bruins -14 (10 Units)
The Cincinnati Bearcats are traditionally a horrendous road team who play even worse when they are underdogs of two touchdowns or more away from home. Everyone knows this. Now they head to Los Angeles to take on Chip Kelly in his first game in charge of UCLA Football? Yikes. Having said that I can see why so many are on the Bearcats here aside from the off-filed issues UCLA is dealing with. Cincinnati is the one and only team in the AAC Conference that is returning their leading passer, rusher and receiver (thank you for that tidbit Covers.com). Having said that I just don't trust QB Hayden Moore to lead these guys on the road in Game #1 of the season. He has pressure from others this season and that will either help him or hurt him. The Bearcats are coming off back to back losing season and their history in these types of games speaks for itself.
Welcome to Los Angeles Chip Killy and his 44-5 SU college football record as a head coach. Sure the Bruins have a ton of suspensions and issues in the leadup to this game and QB Josh Rosen is obviously gone so there is a question mark there but it's Chip Kelly. He's always got something up his sleeve. I do think QB Wilton Speight gets the nod in this one after transferring from Michigan in the off-season. The Rose Bowl should be rocking for Kelly's debut and although there are a ton of questions marks on the offensive side of things, I'm just not sure Cincinnati is able to prepare for his complex style of attacking and coaching. It will be tough for Cincinnati.
Now to go back to what I was referring to about Cincinnati being a great fade on the road as a big dog, the Bearcats are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games as an underdog of 10 to 17 points dating all the way back to 2014. This is not a good spot for them. UCLA is notorious for slow starts in September too and they have been a terrible bet in their first four games of each of the last few seasons but the Chip Kelly era is here and I am willing to take a shot against a terrible road dog.
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games dating back to 2004 when an underdog of 10-17 points.
That is all for this week! Good luck to everyone and welcome back COLLEGE FOOTBALL! I will also be posting a tracking thread for Chris Fallica college football tidbits.
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Vanderbilt Commodores -3
Bowling Green Falcons +32
Alabama Crimson Tide -24
Arizona State Sun Devils -17
BYU Cougars +10.5
That is all for this week! Good luck to everyone and welcome back COLLEGE FOOTBALL! I will also be posting a tracking thread for Chris Fallica college football tidbits.
Some could label you a "static" bettor. Which indicates that you have the same level of confidence for all of your bets.
Do you ever bet less than 10 Units? Do you ever bet more? Or are you just awaiting the results, and throttle back to 8 units if you lost, or bump it up to 12 after a winning weekend?
Thanks in advance for your reply, and kudos for the 'Bear' info
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Wolf, you seem to bet 10 Units every time...
Some could label you a "static" bettor. Which indicates that you have the same level of confidence for all of your bets.
Do you ever bet less than 10 Units? Do you ever bet more? Or are you just awaiting the results, and throttle back to 8 units if you lost, or bump it up to 12 after a winning weekend?
Thanks in advance for your reply, and kudos for the 'Bear' info
“Did you know that Boston, in their school history, has been favored by 17 to 21 Points at home just seven times! Yes that's it, just seven and in those games they are 6-1 ATS and have never lost”
No offense, but you really base your plays off these useless trends? So what if they were favored by 20 points in 1995. GL regardless, but a really stupid way to cap games
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“Did you know that Boston, in their school history, has been favored by 17 to 21 Points at home just seven times! Yes that's it, just seven and in those games they are 6-1 ATS and have never lost”
No offense, but you really base your plays off these useless trends? So what if they were favored by 20 points in 1995. GL regardless, but a really stupid way to cap games
WOLF....hope today is better for you. One observation. I notice you seem to have a lot of road teams as your picks and including some high spreads for road faves. I find these games to be keep aways in most instances.
Hope it works out for you . BOL
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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WOLF....hope today is better for you. One observation. I notice you seem to have a lot of road teams as your picks and including some high spreads for road faves. I find these games to be keep aways in most instances.
Virginia Tech Hokies +7 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
I'm jumping on the Hokies train in this one so hear me out here. Now that Miami took an L last night and the Hokies know they get Miami at home in 2018, does that not make this game all that more enticing when it comes to ACC Coastal Division. Who else is a threat? Nobody. Duke is good but not good enough and North Carolina have issues of their own that will prevent them from having a shot at the Division. So this is it. Although not fatal for their season if they lose, this is a game the Hokies can win. The defense from a year ago (13th overall in the Nation) is a bit depleted but they have reloaded with young talent and their D-Line is one of the best in the Conference and possibly in the Country. No doubt Bud Foster is going to dial up a blitz party against a very suspect Florida State offensive line.
The Willie Taggart party started weeks ago and it doesn't seem like it has ended. Although he has never coached a single game for the Noles, it seems Nole Country is already expecting him to lead them to an ACC Title and then a National Title. Let's calm down. Those expectations were there last year for the Noles and they failed miserably. QB Deondre Francois is back and anyone who's watched him play knows this kid can takeover a game but Virginia Tech allowed only 119 rushing yards per game in 2017 (low in College Football) and their D line is back for another go at it this year.
At the end of the day I expect both offenses to struggle in this one and expect the defenses to set the tone for any points that are scored in the first half. The number is too high. These two teams have not met since 2012 but Virginia Tech has covered the number in the last two meetings. I think the atmosphere is going to be insane and it won't surprise me at all if the Noles come out and strike early but keep in mind Florida State finished the 2017 season on an 0-6-2 ATS run in ACC Conference play. The Hokies are typically a September team (ATS wise) while Florida State is not. I think this will be a somewhat low-scoring game that is going to come down to the final possession of the game. Virginia Tech in an upset.
Trend of the Game: Florida State is 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus ACC Conference opponents.
Virginia Tech 19, Florida State 17
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Monday, September 3
Virginia Tech Hokies +7 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
I'm jumping on the Hokies train in this one so hear me out here. Now that Miami took an L last night and the Hokies know they get Miami at home in 2018, does that not make this game all that more enticing when it comes to ACC Coastal Division. Who else is a threat? Nobody. Duke is good but not good enough and North Carolina have issues of their own that will prevent them from having a shot at the Division. So this is it. Although not fatal for their season if they lose, this is a game the Hokies can win. The defense from a year ago (13th overall in the Nation) is a bit depleted but they have reloaded with young talent and their D-Line is one of the best in the Conference and possibly in the Country. No doubt Bud Foster is going to dial up a blitz party against a very suspect Florida State offensive line.
The Willie Taggart party started weeks ago and it doesn't seem like it has ended. Although he has never coached a single game for the Noles, it seems Nole Country is already expecting him to lead them to an ACC Title and then a National Title. Let's calm down. Those expectations were there last year for the Noles and they failed miserably. QB Deondre Francois is back and anyone who's watched him play knows this kid can takeover a game but Virginia Tech allowed only 119 rushing yards per game in 2017 (low in College Football) and their D line is back for another go at it this year.
At the end of the day I expect both offenses to struggle in this one and expect the defenses to set the tone for any points that are scored in the first half. The number is too high. These two teams have not met since 2012 but Virginia Tech has covered the number in the last two meetings. I think the atmosphere is going to be insane and it won't surprise me at all if the Noles come out and strike early but keep in mind Florida State finished the 2017 season on an 0-6-2 ATS run in ACC Conference play. The Hokies are typically a September team (ATS wise) while Florida State is not. I think this will be a somewhat low-scoring game that is going to come down to the final possession of the game. Virginia Tech in an upset.
Trend of the Game: Florida State is 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus ACC Conference opponents.
Great way to end a tough Week 1 in college football. Hit the big one, learned quite a bit and coming back Week 2 to make some big money. Congrats to all who came out in the plus!
9-9 ATS (+32.00 Units)
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Great way to end a tough Week 1 in college football. Hit the big one, learned quite a bit and coming back Week 2 to make some big money. Congrats to all who came out in the plus!
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