Posted:
#1
I read a few threads and alllllll of them read Oregon -10.
I'm sure someone in this thread likes Stanford +10, my book has it at 10.5, and I'm not so sure.
I would never bet the -10.5 here, but I can't find a reason to take the +10.5 with the Cardinal either.
Stanford has a stellar front 7, something that stopped Oregon last year, except for the Mariota outburst on the first offensive play of the game. Last year Stanford contained Oregon, but Mariota has driven the ball downfield a lot more and effectively. His % is down, QBR is down, whatever. He's not throwing 6 yard ins and outs every down anymore. He has deep threats and they run double moves. Which is a good thing against teams like Stanford and insert possible bowl game opponent.
I'm a homer, but I'm not dumb with my money. I'm not betting the -10.5. The only things I do like on the board are the under 63 and whatever the 2H line is to favor Oregon.
People mistakingly think they're a good 1H team, and they are when they play the shitty half of the pac 12 or their non conference opponents who don't know what to do. Traditionally, Oregon plays in close games till half time and blows the team out in the 2nd half, past games against Andrew Luck and this offense, UCLA last week, etc. I think Oregon leads 14-10 or so at halftime after a slow start, where Stanford probably lead in the 1st half so the 1Q -3 and 1H -7 are no plays for me.
But ultimately I think they cover the -10.5 but my wallet isn't going on it.
35-20 Ducks? Play the under 62.5, you won't regret that. Stanford runs a lot of time off the clock and Oregon won't move the ball to their normal success. Still enough to put up 35-or a touch more on Stanford, but it won't be the 60+ we're used to.
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