you want to make some $? come here

13-3. Shoulda been 16-0window.post_1475389968749_22 = function(win,msg){ win.postMessage(msg,"*"); }

I actually tried out this little method myself today and went 18-2.

Fluffybucker may have something here...

Nice work!!

Anything in NFL today Fluffy?

Forgot about the indy early start lol. Too bad I leaned Jacksonville. They wanted the game more. 

Correction ne +9.5. Wow crazy line movement today considering buffalo has not won in ne since the ice age

GL!!

Also forgot to number the above properly. I have computer issues so doing this from my phone. Those are wagers 71, 72, 73, 74, and 75

College update we are 29-12. NFL 17-12 heading into today

Followed few on the first list...GL!!

Excellent. Thx for sharing. Any tips on identifying potential lower variations games? eg those w a lower total? Thx !

Well you were definitely right on LSU over Mizzou.. This is an interesting system I thought id try it out, but unfortunately I took Baylor +3 at Iowa State. They drove to the goal line but kicked the FG with no time left.  I kinda screwed myself because I didnt play the other games that were part of that tease.  I had Ohio State, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Baylor... so i guess il be sure not to make that mistake again, but I think this has potential, and I like that you the same team in multiple teasers, i was trying to explain this last year, with 2 game teasers... This week I loved the Buffalo Bills, I took them money line when they were +7.5, and the Redskins...  I did 4 different teasers that were all connected to the Bills and 3 teaser all connected to the redskins. I had Buf/Den Buf/Chicago Buf/Pitt Buff/Washington... Wash/NYJ Wash/Dallas Wash/Minn.  The only tease I lost was Washington with the Jets... I understand that there;s more risk in this, but also more reward.  I felt like Buffalo +13 was such an obvious winner that I attached favorites to them so they would just have to win outright.  I also really like Washington -1 and felt they would be a good team to anchor a bunch of other games to...  I started using this method last season and it worked, I won a lot more than I lost.  Of course there were a few weeks where I lost a decent amount of money, but more often than not I won....  

Not sure what to do with the zona game. It moved to -10 game day after being -7.5 the whole week. I think I will count it as a win because the fsu game moved from being a loser the whole week to being a winner on game day. So 2 games where if you bet game day one went from win to loss other win to loss. I took the loss on the fsu game so I think that's fair. Honestly my first few picks with Ari I did not even see the line movement or I would have had it in fewer games. So 5-5 in Nfl

Next time I post all my picks earlier. 

I made a type earlier. I meant to say one game went from win to loss other loss to win so they canceled out.

Good stuff bro

Regarding fts and lopez's posts above,

There are a few things you can do to identify low variation games.  The first is to not bet on super geckyl and hyde type teams.  But more than anything you have to have a feel for the game.  There are certain teams that gravitate to 0.  They do not blow out many teams, but do not get blown out themselves.  Then you got teams that play close to the point spread very often.  They do not typically over perform it, but typically do not under perform it either.  You also need to understand the importance of home vs road.  It's huge.  I do not like to tease road teams often.  I definitely do not like to tease road favs. 

What makes me different than the average poster is a few things.  One, I take responsibility for losses.  I do not make excuses.  80% of my losers I can look back and see where I made the error.  New England for example last week, they were a bad play.  Why?  They just blew out Houston the previous week.  They were feeling good about themselves when they were not that great in reality with who was starting at QB.  Buffalo wanted it more.  And if there was ever a game they would win in Foxborough, that would be it.  The week to bet them would be this week, coming off a loss where they'll be on high alert vs a bad team with little talent.

I also have knowledge of intangibles.  I know past history of teams much better than most people.  I know which teams lay down in the road every year.  I know which teams do well as dogs.  I know which spots where 7-8 point favs are very, very unlikely to lose based on the match up and situation.  I know which teams play tough vs certain teams and are owned by others.  My memory runs back 4-5 years of most college teams and it's a lot of info that helps me ballpark results.  I also understand the reversion to the mean.  BET WITH THE REVERSION TO THE MEAN IN YOUR FAVOR.  This is what most betters make the mistake of doing.  Example?  Bills week 3.  Everyone loved Arizona.  I didn't.  Because the Bills were not that bad and they were motivated and due to play a good game.  They won easily as a 5 point dog.  The reversion to the mean was in your favor.  Same thing with the Bears last week.  They aren't gonna go 0-16.  The Lions at home was a perfect spot for them to win.  The Lions are a horrible road team and it's a division game.  They had no business laying 3 points on the road in that spot.  They shouldn't lay 3 points on the road to anyone to be honest.

What teasers do is allow you to ballpark games.  You do not have to be exactly right.  You have to be in the vicinity.  If you lose with a 13 point adv, you have no excuses.  You were just dead wrong.  But predicting whether a 3.5 point fav wins by only 3 or 6 or 7 is much more arbitrary. 

Another thing to reiterate is the importance of home vs road.  Everyone loves Washington this week.  Maybe they will destroy Oregon this week.  But has everyone forgotten in their lone road game of the year they got taken to OT by a GOD AWFUL Arizona team?  This is a classic betting concept to understand.  This Washington team probably plays about 3 TDs better at home vs road.  It's not the typical 6-8 point swing with every team.  If they played Arizona at home they probably win that game by 4 TDS.  On the road they fight for dear life.  Stuff like this is why I have a better feel for teams than most people.  Oregon owns them and is at home so we'll see what happens.  I could list a number of other teams like this, but that's just an example. 

Teams like Ohio State, Michigan State, Bama, Wisconsin are traditionally teams that do not rely as much on the home crowd to win as others because they are grittier teams.  Stanford is becoming a bad road team now because they are not super offensively talented and on the road they can't handle the extra defensive intensity.  Big 12 teams are all awful on the road because they are terrible on defense and they give no resistance when they go into a hostile environment and it makes it near impossible to win a game.  I could go on and on. 

Please feel welcome to go on an on anytime. appreciated.

Will be tailing this thread, BOL

Love your thinkin and thx for last week picks .. im new here and i like your analysis .. im definitely tailling you !!

Any picks for the weekend fluffy?

I'll post nfl and ncaa sometime tonight, or very early am.

Gonna do something a little bit different in the NFL this week, but it should be very effective as there are a couple games I really like.

Great info Pal...

Good Luck this weekend.

81.  SD St -3, Miami +10, Penn St +16, Ok St -4

82.  SD St -3, Miami +10, Notre Dame +15.5, Miss St +16

83.  SD St -3, Miami +10, Ohio St -15, Penn St +16

84.  SD St -3, Ohio St -15, Ok St -4, Texas A&M +6

85.  SD St -3, Penn St +16, Texas A&M +6, Oregon +22.5

86.  Miami +10, Ok St -4, Iowa +15, Arkansas +27

87.  Miami +10, Texas A&M +6, Mich St +7.5, Miss St +16

88.  Ohio St -15, Ok St -4, Mich St +7.5, Iowa +15

89.  Ohio St -15, Arkansas +27, Oregon +22.5, Utah +3.5

90.  Notre Dame +15.5, Iowa +15, Arkansas +27, Utah +3.5

GL!!