Alabama at louisiana state (01/09/2012)

Posted: Jan. 9, 2012 - 4:05 PM ET #86

First, there is no really stupid bet on this game, a reasonable case can be made for both these great teams. Should be a helluva football game, but will be different since this is on a neutral field, and on artificial turf. After studying it to death I am going with LSU, Here are the difference makers:

1. They are getting points....thank you!

2. LSU won the first game despite playing in Tuscaloosa. If you have never been, trust me, it more than a 3 point edge for the Tide. Very tough place to play, especially in big games.

3. LSU faced a much better schedule, and bested all challengers. Won three games against teams rated in the Top 5, 3-4 more against teams rated in the Top 20 at some point in the season, including the SECCG.

4. While defenses are pretty much a wash, both off the charts great, LSU has DBs that can cover Alabama one on one, Bama cannot risk that against LSU's receivers. LSU can stack the box to stop the run.

5. Both teams have below average QB's, but LSu has two experienced QBs so if one goes down, all isn't lost. Bama has no experienced backup.

6. Special teams edge is huge for LSU. Best punter in the nation, bar none. FG kicker edge to LSU, enough said. Return game, especially punt return to LSU by a large margin. Will force Bama to make shorter, directional kicks to avoid being burned by Matthieu.

7. Running back edge to Bama due to Richardson, but LSU has more quality depth at RB, and they will use the option some to confuse Bama. Already said, LSU can cheat up to stop the run, but Bama cannot.

8. Miles is a better game day coach, always has been. He has his teams play loose, and always keeps the other team on their toes with his trick plays. For the guy who questioned Miles being the better coach, swallow this: Saban's dumb move to put a crippled return man out to return a punt cost them a 70 yard punt that flipped the field in the first game. Who would have done that? Edge to LSU.

As I said at the beginning, either team can win this game. One play, one turnover, one bad call, all of those can detrmine who wins and loses. But the edge in so many areas favor LSU enough that I am pretty solid in laying my cash on the Tigers. I am a supporter of neither team, but I love good football so I am getting ready to enjoy. Good luck to all the bettors, wish this wasn't the last CFB game for 8 months.

Geaux Tigers!!

LSU wins straight up 3 unit play for me LSU 23---Tide 17

Posted: Jan. 9, 2012 - 5:10 PM ET #93

Quote Originally Posted by rekamyenoM:

This game will be totally the opposite from the last with offense being the focus. Once they get rolling, there will be no stopping them. If you want to win some money in this one, consider the Alternate Spreads.

For me?

LSU +10.5

GL!

Hey there Moneymaker, hope you've had a good season! I think they will pick it up mid game only to slow it back down. The media has been predicting a high scoring affair but I don't see it because it's going to be uber physical. No time to pass deeper routes. Run/pass for short yardage but will move the chains slowly. Only one quarter do I see possibly 14 pts, the rest 10, 7, 6 or even 3. One offensive turnover in the red zone and the over is fried with as much clock as drives will eat. Didn't hurt to hear both coaches say (paraphrased and interpreted) they intend to be conservative unless they get behind 2 scores. Granted both might not have wanted to reveal their actual strategy (so I guess 1st down TD passes here we come...ha!) but this really should be a fundamentally sound game with all the future pros and diciplined lines, I look for few deeper shots and under 6 receptions of 25+ yds (likely early in the drive). BOL

Alabama at Louisiana State (01/09/2012)

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