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Ball State at Miami (Ohio) (11/11/2008)

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Posted: #76

Leaning to the UNDER total play here for this matchup; Let me throwing some Over/Under trends here.

Ball. St.

In the road game where the total set between 49.5 to 56 = 1 - 3 O/U. Past three years.

Miami-Oh

At home game where the total set between 49.5 to 56 = 1 - 5   O/U. Past three years.

In adding to Big Daddy‘s Tuesday Night Under special, so I like UNDER 54.5 here. Just for some action tonight.

 

As for the side, there is no play for me.

Don’t have much stat to back Boise. St laying 19 points on the road here; on the other hand... Whenever the team (Miami OH) has new QB under center, there are usually bad thing more likely will be occurred.

 

Good Luck to all

 
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Posted: #77
so last week was a brutal under loser.
 
on 10/28 the under's split, with another crazy late td. 
 
all over the under tonight, as I think its a justified trend being a tv game (inflated total) and average collegiate players (usually).
 
does anyone know the % of Tuesday night unders over the last few years?
 
 
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Posted: #78
I live near Oxford and the weather looks like it is going to be in the mid 30's with a slight chance of rain. The radar is not showing much right now so it is just going to be cold.
 
However, I am currently leaning on the under for now.
 
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Posted: #79
I don't have a stat but would guess it has hit at about an 80% clip.  And we've been playing it about 3 yrs or so -- is that right Big D?   I am just guessing on the 80% -- but I bet it is at least 75%.   Also depends on what # you get.  2 weeks ago I got lucky and just barely hit the under while others did not.

I'll take one unit on the under as well.  It's just such a good trend.  And as far as "all on the under tonight" I guess you did not read all the posts.  Many are taking the over.

Weather does not seem awful but it might be a little slippery with light rain, and might make it feel a tad colder.    I don't put any stock in "style points."  Who doesn't want style points in ANY game?   You always want to shine, but sometimes your opponent has other ideas.

Ball State is clearly the better team, but at 20 pts I'll hold off on the side.

GL all...  


 
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Posted: #80
entertainment play on BSU and the over........they are just too fun to watch and Miami is just aweful on D.  Then again.........kinda what I thought about that MNF game.........lol
 
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Posted: #81
under 54.5
 
leaning on the Flying Lettermans at the half and final
 
 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by Irisheyez:

entertainment play on BSU and the over........they are just too fun to watch and Miami is just aweful on D.  Then again.........kinda what I thought about that MNF game.........lol

Yeah you weren't the only one thinking that way on MNF. I took Ball State and now I'm taking the OVER as well. GL!

 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by TXDUCKS:

pronk,
 
You still on the over?  By the way, liked your pick last night but ended up teasing AZ down to -4 and over 42.  Thanks to the goal line stand and terrible play call from Martz. 

The tease was the way to go...I didn't like the officiating or coaching in that game. Anyhow, I am taking the OVER. I see a lot of points in the game....well, i need to see a lot if I expect Ball State to cover.

 
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Posted: #84
Statistically, Ball State gets the edge easy in scoring. Obviously their record is much better than M-OH. Against similar teams, M-OH has been trounced while Ball has done the trouncing. Home team factor not significant here, as it aint exactly Happy Valley in Oxford OH. Might be some fucking Amish in the stands. Ball has everything to play for, Miam-OH cant get out of their own way. Ball defense plays pretty well in conference, MIA-OH QB was garbage before he was benched, no reason he should be any better now. The list could go on.  Everybody loving Ball, and the line movement proves it. If this line had stayed down around 16.5-17.5 it would seem like M-OH would be the play. Maybe the books fucked up and released it way too low and quickly adjusted- whoever got it early was on point. I did not. Way too many factors in favor of Ball to like Mai-OH for a minute here. I see it at 20 at my book and will grab it now.
 
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Posted: #85
Current Conditions - Oxford
M/CLOUDY 41 °F
Wind: SSE 3
5-Day Forecast
 
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Posted: #86
m-ohio made buffalo look like texas tech last week , so don;t see how they slow down NFL prospect davis and ball state squad that;s  seeking BCS at large bid..  ball state just to many  here.....ball state BIG 51---10       
 
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Posted: #87
Well here it goes...
 
undah! undah!  please stay undah!  just enough for a Ball St ats covah!  
 
 undergods fav ats gods 
 
over demons  ats dog demons
 
 
Ball St final -20.5 ( mid size play )
 
Under 55
 
Aloha and good luck to all
 
 
 
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Posted: #88
Hey All, longtime listener, somewhat first time caller. Nate Davis is playing well for BSU, but 30, cold and rainy is rough for anyone. Mistakes happen. My opine is for under. For those who care anything about trends, it leans defintely to the under for both teams. Weather only adds to the mix. I don't think that BSU has to make that big of a statement as everyone thinks. Solid play and and another win keeps them moving in the right BCS direction.
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by danstyk:

I don't have a stat but would guess it has hit at about an 80% clip.  And we've been playing it about 3 yrs or so -- is that right Big D?   I am just guessing on the 80% -- but I bet it is at least 75%.   Also depends on what # you get.  2 weeks ago I got lucky and just barely hit the under while others did not.

I'll take one unit on the under as well.  It's just such a good trend.  And as far as "all on the under tonight" I guess you did not read all the posts.  Many are taking the over.

Weather does not seem awful but it might be a little slippery with light rain, and might make it feel a tad colder.    I don't put any stock in "style points."  Who doesn't want style points in ANY game?   You always want to shine, but sometimes your opponent has other ideas.

Ball State is clearly the better team, but at 20 pts I'll hold off on the side.

GL all...  


 pending on the line like you said. By mine it was in the 95% range. Since being a member back in 2003 I think 2004 & 2005 went through a whole season without an over on a Tuesday night game. 2006 & 2007 had a couple if I'm not mistaken went over the total early and the others garbage time td. Anything before 2003 was very rare that the games went over the total.

When I first introduced the trend in 2003 I stated it may be due to this game being played right after a weekend on a Tuesday night might take a toll on these college kids. It's like adults getting up on Monday morning to go to work still recovering from the weekend. Who knows? but it's been a nice trend for me for a very long time.

Good luck today my friend

 

 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by Fish Naked:

under 54.5
 
leaning on the Flying Lettermans at the half and final
 

 good luck today my friend. Nice to have a tag team going so if it fails we go down together

 
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Posted: #91
Ball St. vs Miami OH under 54.5 (3 units) - two weeks in a row the Tuesday Special has gone awry, although I'm banking it gets back on track tonight.  Hopefully Ball St. doesn't hit the number on their own, but I don't think they will and I forsee a 31-17 victory for them.  I'm not sure about the status of Redhawks leading RB Thomas Merriweather, if he doesn't play I'm not so sure they even get to 17 points.
 
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Posted: #92
miami
o 54 1/2
 
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by dopham55:

miami(ohio)+over......lasvegas told me that

Did they tell you there's a pot of gold on the other side of the rainbow? LOL

 
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Posted: #94
I have not heard anything about Merriweather's status, however I do know that Belton is out for Mia. Not that they had a passing game anyway. 
 
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Posted: #95
under 55
 
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Posted: #96
Typically, when you see a spread move 3 or more points in a week.......Vegas is trying to cover a mistake.  When it moves that much in just the first two days.........it has to be enough to make you believe that there is a mistake in judgement made on the history of the two teams...........Vegas overlooked the cavernous differences between these two teams physically and functionally........not to mention the QB differences, offense to defense(scoring) 9th to bottom third of the NCAA and what BSU is playing for and the stage they get to state thier case last week, this week and next week on national TV!!!! 
 
Gotta go bigger now on Ball St.
 
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Posted: #97

bigdaddys tuesday night special has been good to me too with the exception of last week. Going with the under.

how bout a rain dance to go along with the under dance bigdaddy                                                                   

 
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Posted: #98
Final Score
Ball St. 45
Miami(OH) 20
 
 
 
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Posted: #99
BigD my Bruddah!
 
You know I can't stay away from that voodoo that you do! Under Gods be kind and keep our s safe through the night.
 
 
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Posted: #100
taking ball state team points. maybe home team gets a couple of tds to keep pressure on
 
BSU-48
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