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Louisiana State at Mississippi State (09/15/2011)

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Posted: #26

Thank you, 2_For_Da_Money.  Your post is long, so I didn't want to quote the whole thing, but you you are on da money.  Watching public reaction and line movement tells you a lot more than capping a game.  ANYTHING you think you know, so do the books.  70% on LSU and the line is still at 3?  Vegas doesn't belive in Santa Claus - there are NO gifts.

Besides, haven't you guys watched enough Thursday footbal to know what happens to ranked, road favorites?

MISSISSIPPI STATE +3

MISSISSIPPI STATE ML
 
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Posted: #27
4team sp tsr: LSU+9.5,
 
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Posted: #28
4team sp tsr: LSU+9.5, GT-1, mich st+17.5, wash st+19. GL
 
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Posted: #29
I like mississippi state unless their starting center and left takle don't play.  Better keep an eye on that.
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by mize_um:

Laroja - In the 20 years ive been a die hard ole miss fan living in Oxford, MS, i have never known of Starkville to have a reputation of being an unusually tough atmosphere for night games... However i do think MSU is nearing a top 10 quality team but don't think they are quite ready to pull off a win in the magnitude of a game.. similar to 2 years ago when they choaked against LSU at home.. and even last week.. Good program headed in the right direction but lack the experience to grab this big of a win.. in my oppinion.


Interesting take. If anything, your probably right and I'm most likely wrong about the atmosphere. I'm basing the atmosphere off of the game where Miss St played Arkansas last year in starkville. It was a night game and the energy was electric. I'm thinking that a weekday game between two sec west rivals ( LSU owns MISS ST in the past ) during the night should have a ecstatic home atmosphere.
 
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Posted: #31
LSU -3.5 1u
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Laroja:



Interesting take. If anything, your probably right and I'm most likely wrong about the atmosphere. I'm basing the atmosphere off of the game where Miss St played Arkansas last year in starkville. It was a night game and the energy was electric. I'm thinking that a weekday game between two sec west rivals ( LSU owns MISS ST in the past ) during the night should have a ecstatic home atmosphere.


Having been to several night games in Starkville the past 10 years you are correct the atmosphere is electric. The problem is they consistently LOSE these "we're ready to move up with the big boys" games. Thur night will be no different in my opinion
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by BloodyShredder:

Thank you, 2_For_Da_Money.  Your post is long, so I didn't want to quote the whole thing, but you you are on da money.  Watching public reaction and line movement tells you a lot more than capping a game.  ANYTHING you think you know, so do the books.  70% on LSU and the line is still at 3?  Vegas doesn't belive in Santa Claus - there are NO gifts.

Besides, haven't you guys watched enough Thursday footbal to know what happens to ranked, road favorites?

MISSISSIPPI STATE +3

MISSISSIPPI STATE ML

the public play covered 87% of thursday bets last year.

Yes i watch a lot of football

 
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Posted: #34
and i forgot to mention, ok state started the trend again last week.
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by jfratt23:

the public play covered 87% of thursday bets last year.

Yes i watch a lot of football

I call bullshit!! No offense to you personally... But please show me where you came up with this figure. I watch a lot of football... Probably too much!! I hope you prove me wrong, but just off the top of my head, I don't see how!!

 
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Posted: #36
Defense wins the national championships as well as regular season games. Miss st couldnt stop auburn at all. They rely heavily on the run game. LSU is a run stop machine and not bad at the pass either. The doc says LSU for the large and probably the under son!!
 
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Posted: #37
when the line looks like a gift just sit back and watch the game with a cold beer (general rule of thumb) bookies never gift anything to the public something must be up time to give LSU a miss even thought my head is saying play it large it's to easy
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by FoolTime:

I call bullshit!! No offense to you personally... But please show me where you came up with this figure. I watch a lot of football... Probably too much!! I hope you prove me wrong, but just off the top of my head, I don't see how!!

MUST NOT WATCH ENOUGH..  I have used this play for 2 yrs now since I noticed the exact same thing its like they give the crack head a free sample on thursday then takee all his money the rest of the weekend.
9/9 auburn fav by 1 wins by 3
9/16 ncstate fav -2 wins by 11
9/23 miami fav -4 win by 28
9/30 ok st fav -2.5 win by 3
10/05 mtenn fav -4 looses by 37** dog cov
10/13 cent fl fav - 6.5 won by 21
10/20oregon -26.5 won by 47
10/27 boise fav -35.5 won by 29** dog cov
11/02 mtenn -1.5 lost by 30** dog cov
11/09 noill -11.5 won by 30
thats 70% winners right there!! 
 
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Posted: #39
How about when the public is over 65% one team.  That's my tipping point.  It means Vegas is giving us a line that begs us to take a particular side.  Now why would they do that?
 
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Posted: #40
I am a firm believer in line movement and reverse line movement.. If Vegas wanted us to bet LSU wouldn't the line go down?? Instead it's going up.. Sometimes it's about who is the best team, especially with a line as low as this..
 
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Posted: #41

remember The coach for LSU always..always has some screwed up stuff happen every year. This could be the week. I think starkville wins thursday. they look pretty strong. First home game I believe.

other than that...don't see any really killer games this week. do you?

 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by BloodyShredder:

Thank you, 2_For_Da_Money.  Your post is long, so I didn't want to quote the whole thing, but you you are on da money.  Watching public reaction and line movement tells you a lot more than capping a game.  ANYTHING you think you know, so do the books.  70% on LSU and the line is still at 3?  Vegas doesn't belive in Santa Claus - there are NO gifts.

Besides, haven't you guys watched enough Thursday footbal to know what happens to ranked, road favorites?

MISSISSIPPI STATE +3

MISSISSIPPI STATE ML


Over 85% were on New England on MNF and the line never moved.  New England covered with ease.  So, I guess Vegas was in a generous mood?  C'mon man. 
 
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Posted: #43

For me it's a hard game to gauge. LSU QB Lee is nursing an ankle injury and they are questions on o-line for Miss St. The Miss st o-line has done a great job of protecting Relf this season so with the injuries on their line it's hard to gauge if Relf will have continued sucess against a tough LSU defense.

Being that I love to play first half lines I try to keep track of teams that carry a consistent trend in first half play...well so far both teams put up decent first half numbers with Miss st having the edge.

I'll probably lay off this one for now unless I get itchy just before gametime

Good luck to all

 
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Posted: #44
Let's not over-analyze this. LSU won the last 10 matches.  They're playing OK so far this year and MSU has not proved to be as great as previous year.  WIlling to risk my $$ on LSU.

Locked on LSU -3 (3 units)
 
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Posted: #45

 

 

Quote Originally Posted by bigdaddyhpd:

For me it's a hard game to gauge. LSU QB Lee is nursing an ankle injury and they are questions on o-line for Miss St. The Miss st o-line has done a great job of protecting Relf this season so with the injuries on their line it's hard to gauge if Relf will have continued sucess against a tough LSU defense.

Being that I love to play first half lines I try to keep track of teams that carry a consistent trend in first half play...well so far both teams put up decent first half numbers with Miss st having the edge.

I'll probably lay off this one for now unless I get itchy just before gametime

Good luck to all

 

Big D, you are a excellent 1st half capper!! where u been on the NFL forums?! miss seeing your inputs! inputs are greatly thanked!

 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by BloodyShredder:

How about when the public is over 65% one team.  That's my tipping point.  It means Vegas is giving us a line that begs us to take a particular side.  Now why would they do that?

because its 1 game.. now a line where they beg you to take a side and they hold the JUICE, like with denver monday, public was on denver and line stayed at 3 but juice went to -125 that is a clear sign to me when a line is off and a trap..  believe me i play line moves VS the public but for whatever reason the public FAV covers a majority of the time thursday.. if the public never won they wouldnt bet.
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by viet90tt:

 

Big D, you are a excellent 1st half capper!! where u been on the NFL forums?! miss seeing your inputs! inputs are greatly thanked!

LOL I don't think you want me on there I went 4-2 on irisheyez pick 6 NFL contest.

Actually due to the lockout I didn't know how teams would come out on week 1 so my pick 6 picks were more of gut than anything else...just found a local so I'll be back on there soon.

Good luck

 
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Posted: #48
I really don't like betting against LSU so I will probably stick with the under here.  This has all indications of being a close game and coming down to the last play.  Looks like it will be raining in the area too. 
 
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Posted: #49
I will just stay with the over at 50. For the line to be this close in the eyes of Vegas then Miss. St is gonna have to put up points. Safe play is the Over 50. lock it in  
 
 
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Posted: #50
And for all you guys with these systems, line movement, reverse movement blah blah blah. There is no system for tipped passes and fumbles. It may work tonight , who knows, I got the over so I hope it does but that shit doesn't matter man. Cap the games, be disciplined, dont make plays unless you love the play, and know when to just stay off a game. Its simple. If you win 65% of the time then you are a great capper. Winners did not build Casinos fellas and you cannot out smart Vegas with line movement bullshit so play the play you love and NEVER bet more than you can afford to lose. Try it...........Its fantastic!!! 
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