Nevada at Air Force(9/29/2018 5:00:00 PM)

Away:  Nevada [1-3 ATS]
Home:  Air Force [2-1 ATS]

Game Time: 4:00 PM
Stadium: Falcon Stadium

Featured Lines

Recent Meetings:
10/20/17 - AFA 45 vs. NEV 42
11/15/14 - NEV 38 vs. AFA 45
09/28/13 - AFA 42 vs. NEV 45

Team Leaders:

Nevada:
Passing: Ty Gangi (1073)
Rushing: Toa Taua (331)
Receiving: McLane Mannix (358)

Air Force:
Passing: Isaiah Sanders (289)
Rushing: Cole Fagan (209)
Receiving: Marcus Bennett (186)

AIR FORCE – 6.5 vs Nevada – Remember that scene in “An Officer and a Gentlemen” (yeah, I know those were Navy pilots, but stick with me here) when the trainees had to perform simple tasks in an oxygen deficient room?  Zack Mayo’s best friend, Sid, was trying to identify playing cards and the lack of oxygen made him get all goofy and passed out.  Then Sid dropped out of the Navy, and  proposed to his girlfriend and she said “no”….then it got a little bit worse for him.  The reason I mention this is that the Air Force Falcons are home and they play at high altitude.  The visiting teams hate it and the Falcons play great there. 

Air Force won three out of the previous four H2H encounters including the last two, while the Falcons were victorious in the past two meetings at the Falcon Stadium. Nevada lost eight consecutive games on the road and is without an away victory since November 2016, so I am giving the advantage to the hosts on this one. The Wolf Pack allowed 35+ points in each of their last three games and considering that the Falcons are scoring 32.3 points per contest, I don’t think the visitors will experience good times on Saturday. 

This season, Air Force has made a respectable account of themselves.  Fisher Deberry would be proud.  In their 3 games, they completely annihilated Stony Brook at home, 38-0.  Don’t laugh but Stony Brook’s power rating (56) is almost as good as Nevada’s (59).   Then Air Force went on the road and lost 2 close games to Florida Atlantic (33-27) and Utah State (42-32)..both of those teams have high powered offenses.  Nevada’s offense is good, but not as good as those two and they can’t run the ball at all and certainly won’t be able to run it against Air Force’s run defense which only yields 72 yds per game (2.6 yards per carry) and is ranked 3^rd in the FBS.  So Air Force knows Nevada is going to pass.  Everyone knows when you go on the road, you need to be able to run the ball.  Nevada won’t be able to do that. 

Ty Gangi, the Wolfpack QB, would rather be smoking ganja than trying to make first downs against the Falcons.  Against FBS competition, he’s thrown as many Interceptions as he has touchdowns and is only completing 55% of his throws.  I’ve got news for you….that’s not going to help them move the chains, which means that Air Force is going to get their hands on the ball, which should mean their pass defense will get plenty of rest.  Air Force is ranked 6^th in the country churning out 288 yards per game running the option and 2^nd in the country in time of possession (39 minutes per game). 

In the 2 games that Nevada has faced teams better than Air Force, they have lost by 31 points (Vandy) and 19 points (Toledo).  Their defense against FBS opponents is giving up 46 points per game.  Their only FBS win was a 37-35 win against Oregon State (a game where they gave up 594 yards of offense) and they would have surely lost had Oregon State not turned the ball over 3 times.  Air Force at home is a lot better than Oregon State.    The fact that Air Force is averaging 33 points per game and they are up against a sieve for a defense, means that the 6.5 points isn’t scaring me at all.  Laying the wood for the Falcons for 4 units.