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UCLA at Arizona State (09/25/2014)

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Posted: #26
Coach Graham is 22-14 as a dog
Graham is 39-28 in Conference Games
Gramham is 34-19 @ Home 

All records ATS. 

There is a reason the line is dropping....Backup bercovici has 2 weeks to prepare, and oh yea by the way, Graham has been profitable with extra time. Home Team is 5-2 ATS in the Last 5 meetings...

UCLA is the publics preseason team to win the division and compete for the national championship, how do preseason favs usually work out?

UCLA has their share of injuries as well on the O-line, but everyone is only noticing Kelly is out.

Sun Devils
 
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Posted: #27
Floods of UCLA money will come in from degenerate Los Angles Bettors towards kickoff, that is who this line is geared to attract.

I don't know the record of CFB Thurs. dogs, but i bet they are profitable as well...

I don't know if the bet & is accurate on this one, I would think the public would be all over UCLA laying a low #...
 
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Posted: #28
Then  UCLA it is.
 
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Posted: #29

UCLA

 
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Posted: #30
If Hundley the UCLA QB is ineffective because he is too hurt, his back up did great against Texas last week throwing for 2 TD's on 23 for 30 pass attempts. Arizona State scored 38 points up to the time Kelly got hurt and his back up passed for a total of eight yards, 0 points and 2 first downs in the fourth quarter. Small sample size but it looks like UCLA has a big edge at QB no matter who starts. This is a big game, the winner typically wins their PAC 12 division, so if Hundley can play he will. If he is off he has a good replacement that can come in. Kelly was a double threat QB who was crucial to the high scoring Arizona State offense.
 
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Posted: #31

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and approach this from a different angle....

IMO the line and the total are concocted in this match-up to go kinda hand in hand...

The most probable scenario here is for UCLA to either win by 3 (in which case ASU covers) or by 7....

SO...I'm going to lay all my money on the total result being an odd number  (my sports book actually offers this) because I like to have some kind of action on a game like this...GL all

I liked your posts lordzud...GL to you Sir...

 
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Posted: #32
ASU ML   #CashIsKing
 
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Posted: #33
Leary of the Thurs. home dog voodoo scenario which this game fits.
 
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Posted: #34
ASU

In a defensive smack around! The best bet on the board for Thursday.
 
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Posted: #35
Hey what's up boys? Long time reader, 1st time poster.
Looking forward to a successful year and getting some feedback. I read a lot of good things and hope to help with my opinions. So here goes...

I absolutely love the over in this game.
I like... but don't love... ASU +4

I just think ASU's run game will be too much for UCLA's D. They let up 3 rushing td's to Memphis(including a 40yd td run) and Foster is twice the running back of any of Memphis'. My theory is the team whose offense can tire out opposing defense first will win and I think ASU will pound the ball. Guessing  Foster 26 rush for 179 yards 3 td's and 1 rec td.  UCLA'S will def score but even with a back up QB ASU and home field advantage will prevail just squeaking by.

ASU 45
UCLA 41

BOL to everyone!
 
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Posted: #36
ASU
 
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Posted: #37
does anyone know anything about kelly's backup?? - these posts are pathetic - i love how many asu backers dont ever say anything about kelly being out - im no hundley fan i think he is overrated - but unless someone can convince me that kellys backup is decent  - im looking at the under and ucla moneyline - your comments are appreciated ut just dont say ASU!!! or for that fact UCLA!!!
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Texan396:

Leary of the Thurs. home dog voodoo scenario which this game fits.
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agree but its usually the espn game this game is on fox
 
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Posted: #39
here is part of an article from nbcsports.com  - Arizona State will be without starting quarterback Taylor Kelly is definitely out for the game, so Arizona State head coach Todd Graham will not be playing mind games up until kickoff. Kelly suffered a foot injury against Colorado, which means the Sun Devils will ride with Mike Bercovici under center.

from covers - Berovici will not play Thursday against UCLA due to an undisclosed issue

whos right i trust covers
 
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Posted: #40

No Kelly is tough, Bercovici is in so be it. He'll mange the game. UCLA protection troubles will cause them to trip and fall.

ASU at home SU

 
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Posted: #41
I went a little crazy and went all in on UCLA.  Money management I aint got none, I might get some after this win though.
 
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Posted: #42
ASU +4
 
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Posted: #43
Does anybody like the under with a backup Qb and Hundley
injured? 
 
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Posted: #44
From a Sun Devil himself. Losing kelly is without a doubt a HUGE blow. He is a duel threat and the chemistry he has with Jaelen Strong is going to be missed tremendously and cant be match with Bercovici under center. Let me remind you tho that Strong is a top 5 WR in the country and will present mismatches all night. You also have Foster who is 8th in the country in rushing and is an all-purpose machine. Berc has a big arm and likes to gun it so we should be able to move the ball. The offensive line is great. While the defense is young we have some solid LBs. No mistakes on special teams which usually seems to be the problem during prime time games and we should be fine.  If Hundley doesn't play ASU will easily get this win. If Hundley does play they need to be able to move the ball and pressure Hundley. UCLA has an awful O-line. With the environment and all the weapons the Sun Devils have I see a 38-27 win in the BLACKOUT out in tempee! 
 
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Posted: #45

And who is in the booth, or behind the camera matters how?  Baffled by this comment but we are talking voodoo here.  I think the Thursday home dog is all about fan enthusiasm and how that impacts the atmosphere and 20 year old athletes wanting to get lucky after the game with drunken coeds..

Too many unknowns with the QB position in doubt on both sides for me.  Taking ASU at home with 14 points as part of a 3 game teaser with Appy +29 and Ok State -4  GL to all, this should be a good Thursday night of action ,early until late.

 

Quote Originally Posted by steve103061:

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agree but its usually the espn game this game is on fox

 
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Posted: #46

Az State run game not all that great. They ran 8.8 yds/run then 6.4.yds/run vs defenses of NM then Col. But those defenses give up more run yds than the opp. off ave.  6.8 to opp off ave of 5.9 and then 5.1 to opp ave of 4.6.  See, they played some weak run defenses.

UCLA played stronger run defenses, running 3.5 vs Memphis who gives up 3.2 to opp off ave of 3.9 and running 4.6 vs Texas who gives up 3.7 to opp off ave of 4.23. 

So the run defenses these teams ran against are opposite. This game will be a blowout with UCLA on top.

 

 
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Posted: #47
UCLA by 14+ is my best guess.
 
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Posted: #48
Under!!!!$$$
 
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Posted: #49
And 70 to 90% on the AzSt ML at +150 to +160.  And now some books are juicing up AzSt +3.5 -115 to -120.  Joe Public is wrong with AzSt.
 
 
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Posted: #50
The home team on Thursday night almost always have the line move towards them on the day of the game. For a general rule of thumb if you are betting the away team, bet late, if you are betting the home team bet early. There are exceptions. You shouldn't read a lot into the line movement except that a whole lot of bettors are very aware the the home team on Thursday night does really well on Thursday night ATS .Ought to be a fun game to watch, I bet small just because the outcome is so unpredictable.
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