week 10

33-22-1 overall

EMU +6

UTAH ST  +15.5

SAN JOSE +9

HOUSTON+13.5

PITT +2.5

FLA INT +2.5

S.ALA +18

Talk to me about FIU.....

@TRAIN69

UTEP:

 All my plays are based on lines and my personal ratings.  I like dogs that are facing teams with no history of winning games.  UTEP is doing well this season but until I see them win and cover as favorites I am a seller.

UTEP is 13-24 ATS and 2-36 SU since 2016 against D1 competition. Their last 3 covers do not impress me at all. Yes sure they kicked the crap out of Louisiana Monroe, but in that game they were 8 point dogs.  That game along with the last 2 losses (both covers) has influenced this line. They have to win this game and until I start seeing that they can handle these games they are losers!

FIU:

Has lost 5 in a row and the last loss to Jville has also moved this line too much according to my ratings and I am sure the linesmaker agrees with me.  They played Liberty to a good fight losing by 2 points and lost to Mid Tennessee who is much better then this UTEP team.  FIU is not that great but this is one game that they should be able to get control of. 

A teams history means a lot to what I do and how I cap.  UTEP has very little history of winning.  FIU does very well in these situations.  The total is below 52 which means their opponent is not going to race them into the dirt.  

The bottom line:

FIU had a week off after week 8 loss to Jville. That loss is their last game and it looks terrible!  I dont overreact to just that game.

The consensus of 61% on the king of covers just confirms my idea of a slight over reaction and support of a bad team after a few covers.  

@TRAIN69

 talk to me about UTEP

I agree and really like that FIU play .. looks like a td win for FIU .. utep is overvalued in that spot... wish Norton wasn't still the qb at FIU but. I think youre on the right side 

@supermanbets

looks right I hope it ends up to be true 

best of luck on your action this week  

FIU/UTEP canceled 

@TRAIN69

 You liked UTEP didnt you ?

Thanks for your thoughts!! Would have probably been a good game.

@TRAIN69

 I appreciate the question and the response.  

Careful, tune could be the next victim 

They made white look lost out there 

EMU

@Blakefish20

 Careful too 

@KevinSingNgo22

 +6 is looking nice.

EMU +6

Week = 1-0

overall 34-22

Nice start to a great week 

GL spottie 

 your 1st game congrats 

EMU +6

Last season KEST was a dog most games and they finished off the season as dogs only to win those games with no questions.

This season right off the get go their lines have changed.  I spotted this opportunity from those numbers not from the play on the field.  EMU has been a rock solid team the last few seasons and although  they started a newer QB his stats we solid enough even though he barely played.  Had I had more info about EMU I certainly would have played more units.   

In the end I won because of my ratings and the line being off.  Yes KEST took a knee but EMU was right with KEST all game.  The difference was the line.

Week = 1-0

overall 34-22

EMU +6 

UTAH ST  +15.5

ADD UTST +17.5 If they are going to give me more then I buy more.

Boise St. +3  BYU 9th ranked?  With the soft schedule they have played. LOL Go to Boise and beat me, if you do I tip my hat. Overrated team! This 9th ranked team was losing to Houston until they scored 4 TD's to close out a win and cover.  

SAN JOSE +9  As long as they are playing a game with a reasonable total they do well hanging in games.  I think SDSU has had a soft schedule and demolished those teams.  We'll see if 3rd times a charm here for the Aztecs.  Little bit of a gamble play here as this barely qualifies according to my numbers, add that to the soft schedule for SDST and I think I have a winner.

Air Force +5.5 and +180    another game where I am just sticking with my ratings.  Army soft schedule and how they have won easily and how trashy Air Force has looked has added points to this line .  Army is not facing a bottom feeder DII program here this is a rival and a huge game.  

HOUSTON+13.5  Houston remember they were beating the BYU darlings that everyone loves.  My numbers has this to be a much closer game. 

PITT +2.5  FSU as a favorite.  Pitts D is pretty darn good and is going to cause problems.   Of course the challenge is the offense but they can win this one.

FLA INT was ppd.

S.ALA +18  Going up against the Public Coastal team here.  This is the first game in Coastal's history that they have been chalk of <-10 or more against a DI opponent.   This line is off and I am exposing it.  This is the old buy low and sell high game and since everyone has been cashing on them the books get their revenge.  Pass or play the dog.  Don't get sucked into the quick sand.  

BYU's 3rd road game this season.

-1@Navy

-4@Houston

-3 in Boise 

I am on Boise and my numbers have Boise with the upset.  In my opinion this is the worst away line for BYU this season.

I like your approach. Shrewd. Congrats on the nice season so far. U do nfl?

yes I do.

Houston+13.5

Houston: (2019 record 4-8) was the worst season for the Cougs since 2004.  Looking back at the games and lines for the 2020 season it makes sense that they have lost 2 home games to C.Florida with a terrible lines of +3.5 and BYU +4.5.  They showed a ton of capability against the mighty BYU Cougars at home in that loss leading the game by more that 10 points before BYU slammed the door shut. BYU closed out the game scoring 28 points and the games  final 4td's.  Houston still has work to do on the rebuild but this is a real good line.  Remember my only interest is beating the spread so my approach is finding lines that I think has a high probability of doing so.   Sure on the field numbers matter but there is also a lot of randomness involved in each game.

Thats why betting favorites and quality teams is so difficult.

Cincy:

It's a huge benefit to have played 4 home games out of 5 games so far, and yet here again they are at home.  The last 2 games were outstanding, so on paper it looks a bit difficult to stand up here and take the points to this beast.  Cincy has a 6-0-2 ATS streak going dating back to the end of last season and the last 2 outstanding games have moved this line a great deal.  Cincy has been great on D and thats always great for home covers but now the lines keep increasing.  Its going to be a batter of the Houston offense and the Cincy D and the Penalties and miscues are going to decide this one.  My numbers have this line to be inflated and if Cincy keep on their roll I probably lose this one.  This is a line play and I support my numbers by making a bet here.  Houston plays well like they did against BYU for 3 quarters I will win.  If not its going to be a ticket trashed.

I am mostly about lines, my ratings and winning tickets by beating those lines.  On the field numbers are good info but to rely too much on that is crazy.  too much can be random.