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Monday Night Football
NY Giants @ New Orleans
Among Week 12's post-Thanksgiving games, this one has the highest over/under at 51 points. Superdome is the venue -- always a plus for passing -- and each team has a top-five passing offense. It's a nice fantasy setup, unless you own either team's defense. ... The last time the Saints and Giants met was in October of 2009. Drew Brees carved up the G-Men for 369 yards and four touchdowns on 23-of-30 passing (76.7%). Brees' more than two-year-old stats aren't necessarily indicative of future performance, but New York's overall scheme and defensive personnel haven't changed much. The Giants still rely heavily on sack production, and few NFL signal callers are tougher to sack. ... Prior to the Saints' Week 11 bye, Marques Colston burned Atlanta for 113 yards on eight receptions. Colston plays the majority of his snaps at slot receiver, and Giants No. 1 cornerback Corey Webster probably won't follow him inside. ... Lance Moore is coming off a one-catch, 28-yard game and has played just 42.3% of New Orleans' offensive downs over the last month. One of the few Saints that should be benched in this game, Moore's playing time and targets are too inconsistent and game-plan based for fantasy confidence.
The Giants are getting blown to smithereens by tight ends, and perhaps the scariest part is that they haven't yet faced a player at the position with quite as much talent as Jimmy Graham. In their last three games, the G-Men have allowed 28 receptions for 311 yards and three touchdowns to tight ends. It's a ridiculous, nine-catch, 104-yard weekly average. ... New York still can't get its run defense on track, in Week 11 allowing 113 yards on 23 carries (4.91 YPC) to LeSean McCoy. While New Orleans' backfield has been something of a fantasy headache whenever all members are healthy, Darren Sproles has been the most consistent contributor, particularly in high-scoring affairs like this game projects. When the Saints have scored 30 or more points (five-game sample), Sproles has five touchdowns and is averaging 85 total yards a game. He'll remain the Saints' best fantasy running back until proven otherwise. ... Mark Ingram is officially back healthy, rendering Pierre Thomas a between-the-twenties player only. A changing of the guard is possible after New Orleans' off week, but Ingram and Thomas should be on fantasy benches until we see it. If you're choosing between the two, Ingram is probably a better bet for a rushing touchdown.
The Saints' defensive strength is secondary play, particularly at left cornerback with Jabari Greer. Greer doesn't follow No. 1 wideouts around the formation, but is playing at borderline shutdown levels staying on the left. In the Giants' three-wide sets, Mario Manningham lines up across from opposing LCBs, with Victor Cruz in the slot and Hakeem Nicks at split end. Cruz and Nicks have far better matchups than Manningham this week, squaring off with slot CB Tracy Porter and RCB Patrick Robinson, respectively. ... If the coverage matchups aren't enough to get you to start Cruz and Nicks, the target trends should be. Behind Nicks, here is Eli Manning's target distribution over the last month: Cruz 41, Manningham 28, Jake Ballard 25. There is no question that Cruz has overtaken Manningham as Manning's No. 2 option in the passing game. Start 'em. ... Manningham was unable to participate in late-week practices due to persistent knee swelling, and reporters observed him getting around "gingerly" at the Giants' facility on Friday. Manningham has a poor matchup, isn't healthy, and may not even play on Monday night. He's an easy sit.
Nicks is mired in a midseason slump, but look for him to bust out of it on Monday night. He has an elite matchup in a projected shootout. It's an excellent fantasy formula. ... The potentially year-ending injury to Giants LT William Beatty doesn't bode well for oversized TE Jake Ballard. Ballard may become more valuable to the G-Men as an in-line blocker, with Manningham or Ramses Barden taking the targets Ballard leaves behind. ... Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to miss another week with a cracked foot and has no timetable to return. Brandon Jacobs is coming off an awful game against Philly, but remains the Giants' clear-cut lead back over Da'Rel Scott and D.J. Ware. The Saints have been quietly awful in run defense all season, allowing a league-high 5.19 yards per carry. Assuming New York doesn't fall behind quickly and stays competitive for all four quarters, Jacobs should not struggle to flirt with 80-90 rushing yards. He'll also be a good bet to score.
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