Stay away from Jamaal Charles..

From what I've seen just about every "expert" has Charles slotted as their 1st pick overall in Fantasy Football this year. I'm here to steer you clear of the iceberg that will have you sinking in your standings. Sorry, Im not trying to be dramatic, I'm just imploring you to go elsewhere.
Lets examine: His draft hype is based off of his incredible season LAST year. As well it should be to a certain extent.
Look, Manning will be the first QB. Calvin is going to be the first WR. Jimmy will also be a first rounder TE. That's fine. They will finish top 3 at their position. And its basically a scientific fact. 

Yet for Jamaal Charles it's different. In essence, its due to about 3 factors..

Strength in schedule
Lack of a truly potent offense
Health and well being as it pertains to the RB position

Lets review on Charles' monster campaign last year

2013 Schedule

att/yds/td/pts (points include receiving yard stats) 70 rec 693 yds 7 TD

@Jac
16/77/1/16

Dal
16/55/0   16.3

@Phi
20/92/1/23.2

NYG
18/65/020.2

@Ten
22/108/125

Oak
22/78/2/24.8

Hou
21/86/1/16.3

Cle
18/74/0/12

@Buf
17/90/0/9.6
BYE

@Den
16/78/0/7.2

SD
14/115/2/34.2

Den
19/93/1/18

@Wsh
19/150/1/32.8

@Oak
8/20/1/56.5

Ind
13/106/1/26.9

@SD
0/0/0

Maniacal numbers i know, but just look at that cake walk schedule, cardboard defenses. The AFC South and the NFC East defensive units were atrocious last year. Not to mention the horrible intra divisional D's they faced twice a year.

Breaking news! That's about to change. No longer will Charles throw up a combined 80 points on the Raiders. The Raiders Defense will drastically improve this year. Since the offseason, they have acquired 3 proven defensive lineman: Justin Tuck, Lamar Woodley, and Antonio Smith. They also drafted the best LB available in rookie Khalil Mack who should produce instantly. CB Carlos Rodgers will help the secondary. Its as if the Raiders said, "no longer will we be embarrassed by the likes of Charles and Doug Martin." Raider Nation can finally put the butter knives away and at least compete in the NFL. (Raiders side note: They also have a brutal schedule). So goes the AFC West.

If your picking up anything I'm saying then you realize that the AFC West has now become a John McLane survival experiment. The Broncos will win the division, but the battle for 2nd place will make for a great fist fight.
Denver made moves to improve at LB (D. Ware), S (TJ Ward) and CB (Talib). Simply put, the Chiefs will be looking up at at Denver. San Diego might just be a better team than them point blank. The Bolts' defense is nothing special, but they did acquire ex-Chief Brandon Flowers who should help them out at much needed CB. Both him and Weddle will be lightin fools up.

Lets take a quick glance at the Chiefs 2014 schedule. I look at it, words like "brutal" and "arduous" come to mind.

Week 1: Tennessee Titans (Sept. 7, 12 p.m., CBS)
Week 2: at Denver Broncos (Sept. 14, 3:25 p.m., CBS)
Week 3: at Miami Dolphins (Sept. 21, 3:25 p.m., CBS)
Week 4: New England Patriots (Sept. 29, 7:30 p.m., ESPN) - MNF
Week 5: at San Francisco 49ers (Oct. 5, 3:25 p.m., CBS)
Week 6: Bye
Week 7: at San Diego Chargers (Oct. 19, 3:05 p.m., CBS)
Week 8: St. Louis Rams (Oct. 27, 12 p.m., Fox)
Week 9: New York Jets (Nov. 2, 12 p.m., CBS)
Week 10: at Buffalo Bills (Nov. 9, 12 p.m., CBS)
Week 11: Seattle Seahawks (Nov. 16, 12 p.m., Fox)
Week 12: at Oakland Raiders (Nov. 20, 7:25 p.m., NFLN) - TNF
Week 13: Denver Broncos (Nov. 30, 7:30 p.m., NBC) - SNF
Week 14: at Arizona Cardinals (Dec. 7, 3:05 p.m., CBS)
Week 15: Oakland Raiders (Dec. 14, 12 p.m, CBS)
Week 16: at Pittsburgh Steelers (Dec. 21, 12 p.m., CBS)
Week 17: San Diego Chargers (Dec. 28, 12 p.m., CBS)

Charles and the Chiefs offense will have to trek thru the leagues best NFC West (Seattle, AZ, San Fran, St. Louis) which gives me the impression of hard fought games where he'll be lucky to even sniff 100 total yards and heavy goal line work.

Also: Very important note: If you can shut down Charles, the Chiefs offense is anemic to say the least. Expect a lot of 3 and outs or drives that end after a few first downs. (Don't expect the ESPY Chiefs offense who were up 35-10 on the Colts and then proceeded to fold like a lawnchair).
The offense has lost depth on the O-Line and chose not to add any skill position players. So whats their game plan? Just keep feeding Jamaal until he gets broken in half.. (small for a RB, sub 6 ft/sub 200 lbs) These defenses will be loading up to hit him and take him out of the game.
To make matters equally challenging, the Chiefs will also be pitted against the AFC East; Another barbaric matchup for Charles and company. New England, Miami, Buffalo, and the New York Jets will all have improved defenses.

At this rate, I Hope you can see that Jamaal is being over drafted and If you take him first overall and expect last years production than you will be sorely mistaken. Understand that you are a lot better off taking a guy like Peterson or McCoy at number one. Even other RBs before Charles. I have him as my sixth best RB who will no doubt exceed 1000+ yards and double digit TDs. Nevertheless, so will a bunch of other RBs that you will be able to get for a better bargain.

I Can envision this year being the last big suppers for multiple backs. Approaching 30, these guys will still have a STRONG year.

Adrian Peterson (29) -  I'm liking this new look Vikings team with Norv Turner heading up the offense. Of Course we all can remember The Ladanian Tomlinson days in San Diego, so look for the reigning fantasy champ to reemerge in a big way becoming more of a dual threat RB with screen passes and dump offs out of the back field. The Vikings have a great schedule and I love new head coach Zimmer and his approach to the game. If they can start slinging the ball with better success, holes should open up for AP who's still liable to take 50+ yarder to the house every week. (even with the box stacked) His health issues are worrisome due to his style of play, but its also his style of play that makes him such a beast.

Matt Forte (28) - Under head coach Tressman the Bears have finally put together a top notch offense catered around the dual threat that is Matt Forte. Most importantly, we saw him on the goal line where he was able to punch in double digit TD's. I look for the continued success utilizing Swag is my Forte as the center piece of the Bears explosive offense. The Bears have a nice schedule, weaker divisional defenses and should post a stat line similar to last year. Having said that, keep your eye on rookie Kadim Carrey out of Arizona, who will prove to be a good change of pace back in his first year and a valuable handcuff if Forte were to miss any time.

Arian Foster (28) - It wasn't long ago where Foster was the unanimous 1st pick in fantasy. I see a return to the fruitful days under new head coach Bill O'Brien who will want to focus on running the ball. Foster will be the crux of the Texans offense and return to form as the lead back we all know him to be. A lot of people have him outside the top 10 but when he's healthy he owns the backfield similar to Marshawn Lynch. Foster possesses great hands, even as a bigger RB he is  elusive and tries not to run thru people unless they're corners in the open field. (Forte also has a similar run style) I have Arian ahead of aforementioned Charles. Lucky for the Texans, they play the NFC East, (RB wet dream). Similar to Ben Tate's previous role Andre Brown could serve as a valuable handcuff if Foster were to miss any time.

Marshawn Lynch - He is the straw that stirs Seattle's mixer. People will be weary of drafting him worrying about his age, touches, and a foreseeable time share with the emergence of Christine Michael and Robert Turbin. However, Pete Carrol and company recognize where there bread is buttered and Marshawn will continue to wear defenses down and do what he does best - just be bout that action boss.
Although he is not much of a pass catcher his goal line presence makes up for it. Expect another 1000+ yard season with double digit TDs. This may be his last solid year with the Hawks and if he falls to the 2nd round its a steal, its a deal, on this side of the century. Home field advantage and first round bye is of the utmost to the Seahawks if they are going to try and repeat. If the division is a close race, which I expect it to be, look for Marshawn to keep beasting defenses. Seattle will look to become a more complex offensive scheme so 6 man boxes will be looking real nice.

Honorable Mention

Reggie Bush (29) - Reggie reminds me of Pharrel, not because he makes gold records but because he's an ageless wonder. Going on 30 he still looks like he's 21. Even with his tenure in Miami and his first year in Detroit he's proven to be a lead back in the NFL. Of course, "there is a flip side to that coin" as De Niro would say. He is injury prone, but I'm assuming the Lions will be smart and work him on the outside and let Joique bell bang the middle. I'm still willing to take a gamble on him as my RB2. Bell = Low end 2 with upside. Reggie is a game breaker and can take one to the house on any given play. I look for him to run smart and catch 50+ plus balls.

2nd year RBs that will carry you. Do not be afraid.

Eddie Lacy - He will build on his impressive rookie season and continue to be a true three down back. The Packers will want to control the time of possession, keeping their defense off the field and giving Lacy 20+ touches a game. His goal line prowess makes him an ideal candidate to lead the league in TD's so expect an abundance of Lambeau leaps. He's a young Marshawn Lynch, a truly difficult guy to bring down playing on a team that will feature him as a focal point right behind Aaron Rodgers. Absolutely love the division/schedule and I like putting an emphasis on RBs in a prolific offense.

Montee Ball - If Knowshown can put up top 6 RB lines, I'm frothing at the mouth to see what Montee can do in a full time role as the lead back in Denver. With a year under his belt he is primed for a breakout season. Needless to say I'm on the wagon, I'm drinking the kool aid and I want Montee on my squad. If you can grab him in the 2nd round you just got yourself a first round talent capable of putting up monster numbers. Botton line: Broncos RB = Every down back in a hurry up offense with goal line duties and pass catching abilities. Sign me up. I'd take him over both Calvin and Graham.

Leveon Bell - Not since the days of Bettis/Parker and the early years of Mendenhall have the Steelers had a top 10 fantasy running back. Leveon has some of the highest upside out of all RBs. Although offensive coordinator Todd Haley can be unpredictable, sometimes abandoning the run, It's hard to imagine them not making Bell the centerpiece of the offense. The Steelers have gotten better as a whole and it will start with an effective run game. Legarette Blount was brought in as an insurance policy and will get 8-10 touches a game, (or so they say), but expect Leveon to keep goal line back duties. The 8 TD's he scored all came inside the 5 yard line and he displayed good pass catching abilities. Expect the 2nd year man to have a big year. I'm confident he'll be worth the 1st round investment.

Giovani Bernard - Gio will see his role increase as new OC Hugh Jackson knows how to lean on his RB's and get a lot of production out of them. His big time play potential makes him liable to bust a big run every game. Even though he could lose touches on the goal line to Green-Ellis and rookie Jeremy Hill, his yards from scrimmage makes him a great candidate to be a top guy in the league when its all said and done.  Look for him to garner over 60 receptions this season.
Side note: Cincy has an unfavorable schedule and with the losses of Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer this team could take an emmence step backwards. I see the Steelers and Ravens definitely improving and the Browns may shock some people as well. I don't imagine them making the playoffs even if things

Andre Ellington - He was very impressive last year in a limited role. More importantly, Bruce Arians offense engineers high volume work for a RB like Ellington. Look for him to get tremendous work between the 20's and catch upwards of 50 passes. Durability may be an issue, because he is undersized, but from what I saw last year he looks as though he knows how to avoid the big hit. I happen to like a lot of players on the Cardinals this year. Also, besides intra division games they have a very favorable schedule. In PPR formats he will produce as a number 1 RB.

This is a passing league now. Charles and AP shouldn't be drafted in the first round period.

[Quote: Originally Posted by Greedybastard] This is a passing league now. Charles and AP shouldn't be drafted in the first round period.

Thanks for coming bro. Love the analysis.

@greedybastard - I shouldn't discount you from the jump.. I'm sure your a good lad. In terms of strategy this year you can play it multiple ways. Can I get more than 2 sentences out of you?? Thats the question.

Quick note on strategy: If your drafting on the back end - Look to swoop up 2 of the top 5 receivers. As we all saw last year, stock piling RB's does not equate to a championship run. WR is the new RB. Often times, they're not only more consistent, but also produce more yardage and TD's.
For example, If I am picking on the back end in a 12 man league, i have no qualms rolling with AJ Green and Brandon Marshall. (Or perhaps a combination of Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant) Pending injury, they'll be starting for me every week and I can get my RB's  with my next 2 or 3 picks. Whereas if I whiff on a RB early my season is seemingly doomed.

Good write ups man. 

Most people on covers have the attention span of a fruit fly, so two sentences is about the max that you should be contributing. JC will still tear apart a couple of defenses this year, but he is no No.1 overall pick. RBs that I am high on will be Demarco Murray, Doug Martin and Zac Stacy, all of which I should be able to get fairly far down the board. I'll steal Jouiqe Bell towards the end and hope that Reggie has his usual fumbling issues and calf problems. 

Still not as high on Lacy and Bernard like most others because Lacy benefitted from Rodgers being down, and the Bengals just don't have enough offensive production for Bernard to be a heavy contributor. Same with Ellington, that division is too stacked defensively for me to take him. Montee Ball still has a lot to prove before I can burn a high pick on him, and I know he won't last in my draft with many Denverites participating.

I'll take Rodgers or Brees number one like I always do, or I'll try to be sharp and grab Cutler since I believe he is going to have a monster year.

Love McCoy or AP

To say Charles and AP shouldn't 've drafted in the 1st round is the DUMBEST thing I have ever heard

I have guys in leagues that go QB with their first pick every year. They've never won. 

Very very very insightful!

That's about as good as it gets.

I have the #1 pick in one very competitive league (plan about 4 total). Half point PPR.

Despite what all the so called "experts" are selling, and that is that Jamaal is #1, I don't quite see it that way either. You pointed out the obvious and that's the schedule. A date with the NFC West and AFC East? There are some really good defenses there. San Fran, Seattle, the Jets, even Miami is rising.

I currently have AP > McCoy. However, I am trying to trade out of the #1 spot, but if I remain where I'm at, I think I will drink the Kool-Aid and go with Aaron Rodgers. I feel when it gets back to me at 20 and 21, I will have options at RB.

There is one mention of Peterson that Id like to point out. The Vikings will play this season outdoors at the University of Minnesota stadium. In 42 career outdoor games, his yards per game drop from 103 indoors to 90 outdoors. The elements also may cause a couple more fumbles. Still, he is a once in a generation back. When you talk AP, you are grouping him with the all time greats. Still, its food for thought.

Great analysis. For how much knowledge and insight you seem to have I'm perplexed that you are still doing snake drafts. Making the switch this year for my main league after doing an auction draft last season...it really is a whole different ballgame. Much more strategy and really just a more fair system. Not that it takes away any quality to your predictions/analysis but discussing value in terms of % of your budget vs which round a player would/could fall is entirely different

One of my leagues is a keeper league where you lose the round that you drafted the player to keep him (3 year shelf life). 

keep mccoy he will go before the 11th pick

Not looking very stupid so far.