@The_Closer, I actually have the same question. I have tickets on both Croatia & France winning it all, but win significantly more on Croatia. So was thinking about the hedge. I was also looking at the draw & France winning in 90 minutes since the -255 that I have seen to lift the trophy really limits the profits.
Have you done the math, does going with the 2 regulation bets end up being better?
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@The_Closer, I actually have the same question. I have tickets on both Croatia & France winning it all, but win significantly more on Croatia. So was thinking about the hedge. I was also looking at the draw & France winning in 90 minutes since the -255 that I have seen to lift the trophy really limits the profits.
Have you done the math, does going with the 2 regulation bets end up being better?
I picked Croatia to win it all to win $9k. And I've been in these situations before and never hedged and regretted it. Not this time..
These are the lines I'm considering hedging with.
France to win including extra time -220 on it's own or will have to parlay this to reduce the juice.
OR
Playing a combination of both of these... (If I hit the tie and Croatia wins I'm laughing but I recognize it's a greedy long shot.)
France win FT -105
Tie FT. +230
I want to get at least 4-5k out of this. How would you guys play this?
Assuming you bet 300 to win the 9,000....
I hate to tell you this but your bet is worth exactly 2,700 right now.
So while you "want to get 4-5k out of this", the fair buy back for your bet is 2,700 - so to get 4-5k you are going to have to increase your risk and succeed doing so.
In your situation, your Croatia bet has paid 8-1 on your original 300 dollar wager to make the final. The only true hedge here is to bet 6,600 to win 3,000 on France, and that gives you 2,700 either way.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by The_Closer:
I picked Croatia to win it all to win $9k. And I've been in these situations before and never hedged and regretted it. Not this time..
These are the lines I'm considering hedging with.
France to win including extra time -220 on it's own or will have to parlay this to reduce the juice.
OR
Playing a combination of both of these... (If I hit the tie and Croatia wins I'm laughing but I recognize it's a greedy long shot.)
France win FT -105
Tie FT. +230
I want to get at least 4-5k out of this. How would you guys play this?
Assuming you bet 300 to win the 9,000....
I hate to tell you this but your bet is worth exactly 2,700 right now.
So while you "want to get 4-5k out of this", the fair buy back for your bet is 2,700 - so to get 4-5k you are going to have to increase your risk and succeed doing so.
In your situation, your Croatia bet has paid 8-1 on your original 300 dollar wager to make the final. The only true hedge here is to bet 6,600 to win 3,000 on France, and that gives you 2,700 either way.
I hate to tell you this but your bet is worth exactly 2,700 right now.
So while you "want to get 4-5k out of this", the fair buy back for your bet is 2,700 - so to get 4-5k you are going to have to increase your risk and succeed doing so.
In your situation, your Croatia bet has paid 8-1 on your original 300 dollar wager to make the final. The only true hedge here is to bet 6,600 to win 3,000 on France, and that gives you 2,700 either way.
@vanzack, I know you have written about hedging before, so your thought is to not hedge?
I have a similiar issue at post: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=30717&sub=103253423 but in my case, I had future tickets on both Croatia & France. And just trying to get maximum value if I did hedge, which I believe I covered correctly on my post.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Assuming you bet 300 to win the 9,000....
I hate to tell you this but your bet is worth exactly 2,700 right now.
So while you "want to get 4-5k out of this", the fair buy back for your bet is 2,700 - so to get 4-5k you are going to have to increase your risk and succeed doing so.
In your situation, your Croatia bet has paid 8-1 on your original 300 dollar wager to make the final. The only true hedge here is to bet 6,600 to win 3,000 on France, and that gives you 2,700 either way.
@vanzack, I know you have written about hedging before, so your thought is to not hedge?
I have a similiar issue at post: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=30717&sub=103253423 but in my case, I had future tickets on both Croatia & France. And just trying to get maximum value if I did hedge, which I believe I covered correctly on my post.
@vanzack, I know you have written about hedging before, so your thought is to not hedge?
I have a similiar issue at post: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=30717&sub=103253423 but in my case, I had future tickets on both Croatia & France. And just trying to get maximum value if I did hedge, which I believe I covered correctly on my post.
On my tombstone at Covers, it will say "If you are in a position to hedge, you have already made a fundamental error"
While I stand behind that quote 100%, it is taken out of context as a soundbyte - and in your case - a future bet is one that I would always look to evaluate a hedge.
I prefer to look at a future hedge as not even a hedge. The critical thing is knowing your current "buyout" value, or what your bet is currently worth. You can see I did the math above for the OP, and while inherently he has a feeling it is worth 4-5k, it is really worth 2,700. There is no debating this number - it is simply math - and what you do with it from there is where strategy comes in - but knowing your current value is step 1.
I will bounce over to your post and answer it there.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by verdman17:
@vanzack, I know you have written about hedging before, so your thought is to not hedge?
I have a similiar issue at post: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=30717&sub=103253423 but in my case, I had future tickets on both Croatia & France. And just trying to get maximum value if I did hedge, which I believe I covered correctly on my post.
On my tombstone at Covers, it will say "If you are in a position to hedge, you have already made a fundamental error"
While I stand behind that quote 100%, it is taken out of context as a soundbyte - and in your case - a future bet is one that I would always look to evaluate a hedge.
I prefer to look at a future hedge as not even a hedge. The critical thing is knowing your current "buyout" value, or what your bet is currently worth. You can see I did the math above for the OP, and while inherently he has a feeling it is worth 4-5k, it is really worth 2,700. There is no debating this number - it is simply math - and what you do with it from there is where strategy comes in - but knowing your current value is step 1.
I will bounce over to your post and answer it there.
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