World Cup 2018

I will post my thoughts in this thread throughout the tournament.  Some days it will be short, and others long.  I don’t spend as much time at Covers as I used to, but rest assured, I am still very involved with Soccer and sports betting.  It seems I have run out of time to get this up, so this will be brief, but I will be back to discuss anything and add more detail as the tournament moves on.

 I always post widely available lines.  These aren’t necessarily the price I got, or will get – but the price available at time of posting.

 Also, if you aren’t experienced with betting soccer, make sure you know what you are doing.  If I post a PK, that means I am betting a PK for a reason – so don’t bet the win and then complain later.  There is a big difference in different soccer bets.

Future Bets:

·        Uruguay to win group A -130 (risk 1.3 units to win 1 unit) – this is mostly a play against the competition in this group.  Uruguay is not particularly strong enough to go far, but their schedule and competition makes this a cheap date. 

·        Russia to advance group A – no - +235 (risk .2 unit to win .47 unit) – if they do advance, it will only be because of the competition in this group allows them to.

·        Morocco to advance group B +325 (risk .5 unit to win 1.625 units)– best of the northern African sides in the tournament – have a chance to squeak past Portugal to join Spain.

·        Denmark win group C +500 (risk .5 unit to win 2.5 units) – Watch out for the Danes – loaded.  France will leak goals, Lloris in horrendous form and the defense will allow chances.

·        Croatia win group D +240 (.2 unit to win .48)

·        Sweden to advance Group F +130 (.3 unit to win .39)

·        Korea Republic advance NO group F -525 (1.625 to win .3)

·        Senegal to advance NO group G -140 (.7 to win .5)

·        Win WC Spain +630 (.3 units to win 1.89)

·        Portugal under 5.5 points Group B -125 (.625 to win .5)

·        Serbia over 3 points -115 (.575 to win .5)

·        Senegal under 3.5 points +110 (.5 to win .6)

Game Bets:

 Saudi Arabia / Russia Under 2 +125 (1 unit to win 1.25 units)

2.      Uruguay -158 vs Egypt (1.58 unit to win 1 unit)

3.      Morocco +135 vs Iran (2 units to win 2.7)

4.      Spain -105 vs Portugal (2.1 units to win 2)

5.      Australia +1.5 vs France +114 (1 unit to win 1.14)

6.      Argentina / Iceland under 2, 2.5 +105 (2 units to win 2.1)

7.      Denmark +145 vs Peru (3 units to win 4.35)

8.      Croatia / Nigeria under 2, 2.5 -115 (1.15 to win 1)

Wow.  Covers formatting is the worst.  

They do a facelift, but still run the same sh*t software from 2000.

Frustrating to even post here anymore.

I wrote a bunch more explanation and writeups - but when I hit submit - "too many characters" and it erased.

I am not writing it again.

Any thoughts on Belgium?

Yes.  Overrated.

Look - Belgium is one of those sexy teams that people think are flying under the radar, but when everyone knows a darkhorse, by definition - is it a darkhorse?

They have problems scoring.  Maybe because Benteke and Lukaku really can't score on their club teams either?  On paper - this is a great side - but I am done believing in potential - and I don't think they will score the goals to win.  I can't really explain why because they should, but I have seen enough.

They are going to get out of their group because Panama and Tunisia are in their group.   The bracket also favors them as Group H is weak and will be Belgiums opponent in the round of 16.  But I cant see this team winning 4 in a row in the knockouts.

Pick your spots with this side.  There will be times to be them, but my guess is they go out in spectacular fashion in the round of 8.

Honestly, you are really betting on one team.  You are better off taking Brazil by themselves.

Forget Peru, Colombia, and Uruguay.

Argentina?  Lack of defense, link up midfield, and goalkeeping will do them in.

GL either way - just think you aren't getting much for your money to include the 4 other South American teams.

Whats your take on "draw no bet" wagering options in group play?

Good luck this years WC Van...nice to see your thread 

Great read, thanks for posting.  See you got spain over portugal and a small bit to win the WC.  Any reason why you passed on spain to win the group at -220?  Get the juice is a lot but not as steep as germany or brazil. 

Bol

Thanks!

Goodluck this year Van!  Gonna tail some of your futures.

Why SPAIN? not Germany or Brazil?

BOL 

Draw no bet, or PK are the same bet....

Very useful in low scoring games.  First round WC games are usually very conservative.

Mostly because I think Spain might have some low scoring draws in the group.

Once you are in the knockouts, that style is fine because there is extra time, but I can just see Spain getting second instead of first.

Also, coming in first or second in this group isnt much of a difference for bracket placement as Group B plays Group A (Russia, SA, Egypt, Uruguay).  -220 just a little bit rich for me.

Well, this is going to be unpopular and not "sexy"....

But I think you have to look at this tournament in groups of teams.

1.  Teams that can win (in 89% scenarios)

Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain

2.   Teams that can win (in 10% scenarios)

France, Belgium, Portugal, Uruguay, Croatia

3.  Teams that have basically no chance (<1% scenarios)

Everyone else (including England)

So why Spain?  Spain has a definite style of play, and most of their players play together a lot of the club season also - or at least play the same style.  They press very high, and use possession with short quick passing to pressure a defense on attack.  They wait for one single defensive mistake, then a pass has a guy in on net.

This is extremely effective when it works, as it did in 08, 10, and 12 when they won every championship.  So what happened?  The secret got out that if you allow possession to Spain, and developed a team to counter-attack them with speed - you can hit them with high percentage chances but limited to only several per game.  But this was enough.

So Spain rebuilt, and concentrated on defense and defending the counterattack.  So you have a side that is very used to playing a certain style - and playing with each other - which is very important in a tournament like this.

Why not Brazil or Germany?  To be honest, either of those could win also.  A lot will depend on bracket alignment, form, luck, and injuries.  But Spain has the highest price of the group, and I put them as most likely to win (or at least equal).

GL

Reformatted (I hope):

Future Bets:

Uruguay to win group A -130 (risk 1.3 units to win 1 unit

Russia to advance group A – no - +235 (risk .2 unit to win .47 unit

Morocco to advance group B +325 (risk .5 unit to win 1.625 units

Denmark win group C +500 (risk .5 unit to win 2.5 units

Croatia win group D +240 (.2 unit to win .48)

Sweden to advance Group F +130 (.3 unit to win .39)

Korea Republic advance NO group F -525 (1.625 to win .3)

Senegal to advance NO group G -140 (.7 to win .5)

Win WC Spain +630 (.3 units to win 1.89)

Portugal under 5.5 points Group B -125 (.625 to win .5)

Serbia over 3 points -115 (.575 to win .5)

Senegal under 3.5 points +110 (.5 to win .6)

Game Bets:

1.   Saudi Arabia / Russia Under 2 +125 (1 unit to win 1.25 units)

2.      Uruguay -158 vs Egypt (1.58 unit to win 1 unit)

3.      Morocco +135 vs Iran (2 units to win 2.7)

4.      Spain -105 vs Portugal (2.1 units to win 2)

5.      Australia +1.5 vs France +114 (1 unit to win 1.14)

6.      Argentina / Iceland under 2, 2.5 +105 (2 units to win 2.1)

7.      Denmark +145 vs Peru (3 units to win 4.35)

8.      Croatia / Nigeria under 2, 2.5 -115 (1.15 to win 1)

Group Stage Predicted Finish (keep in mind this is WITHOUT ODDS.  So you might see a predicted finish that is in conflict with what I bet.  This is because once you put odds in place, it makes it worth the price.)

Group A

Uruguay 7, Egypt 4, Russia 3, Saudi 1

Group B

Spain 9,  Morrocco 4, Portugal 4,  Iran 0

Group C

Denmark 7, France 5, Australia 2, Peru 1

Group D

Argentina 7, Croatia 7, Nigeria 3, Iceland 0

Group E

Brazil 9, Serbia 4, Switzerland 4, Costa Rica 0

Group F

Germany 7, Sweden 5, Mexico 4, S Korea 0

Group G

Belgium 9, England 6, Tunisia 1, Panama 1

Group H

Poland 5, Colombia 5, Sengal 2, Japan 2

Knockouts

Round of 16

Germany beats Serbia, Poland beats England, Spain beats Egypt, Argentina beats France, Brazil beats Sweden, Belgium beats Colombia, Uruguay beats Morrocco, Croatia beats Denmark

Quarterfinals

Germany beats Poland, Spain beats Argentina, Brazil beats Belgium, Croatia beats Uruguay

Semis

Spain beats Germany, Brazil beats Croatia

Final

Spain beats Brazil