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World Cup 2018

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BWS77

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 35347

Posted: Jul. 14, 2018 - 10:02 PM ET #726

Only 4.6 Units on the final Van? Don't you remember the Covers betting rule of "the bigger the game, the bigger the bet"?

Awesome stuff. Thanks for all the work

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begginerboy

MVP

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 15032

Posted: Jul. 14, 2018 - 10:16 PM ET #727

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

France / Croatia.....

If you would have told me these two teams would have met in the final at the beginning of the tournament, I think I would have been pissed that I don't have any future money on either. I missed France at 9-1 (but posted it) at the beginning of the knockouts, and I eyeballed Croatia at 40-1 at the beginning. If you go back to page 1 of this thread, I included Croatia in the second group of teams that had a chance to win, although I think they are in big trouble here.

Lets talk about the obvious first.... Croatia will be asked to play what amounts to their 5th game in 15 days. That is a lot - no matter what they players say - or what the press says. Will it be the deciding factor? I doubt it, but it leads in to what France will likely do - which is move Croatia from side to side and put some miles on their legs.

France gameplan against Belgium was pretty flawless. They isolated Nacer Chadli as the weak Belgian link, and like in NBA or NFL - they said if Nacer Chadli can beat us - go ahead - but we are going to cover all the rest of your stars. Check out the following passing map from the Belgium / France match - and keep in mind that Nacer Chadli is a guy who played on the worst team in the EPL, and barely got on to the field - you think France knew all of this?

It is the 4th image in the series.....

https://twitter.com/11tegen11/status/1016775803261149186

That is surely not the shape that Martinez wanted for Belgium - but it is the shape that France forced on them.

Why could France do this? Because of their dominating midfield. Kante for me might be the best player of the tournament, and Pogba and Matiuidi have been nothing short of excellent also. Matuidi was out on his feet at the end of the last match - but everything points to him playing tomorrow.

Croatia's midfield has been arguably right there with France when it comes to their success - maybe even more important. Rakitic, Modric, and Brozovic have been spectacular at controlling games the same way France has.

But where they differ is in speed of passing and pace of runners - and Croatia really struggled in the first half against England with pace. Vida and Lovren were in last man situations several times with speedy England moves - and Mbappe and Greizman should have lots of success making outside in moves. I fully expect Giroud to continue to be a hold up guy - not really concerned if he scores or not - just interested in him feeding or starting moves that will involve Greizman and Mbappe. If Croatia play anything resembling a high line - which they flirted with in the first half against England - they are toast.

I fully expect France to isolate Strinic on the left side - in the same way they did with Chadli on the right. He is the weak link. Go ahead and beat us Strinic - but you are going to have to possess the ball in your own half and beat us down the flanks - because your midfield is going to be unavailable to you. This is not only a good defensive strategy for France - but the turnovers it creates unleashes the quick passing and pace that should prove Croatias downfall.

France have only conceded in 2 out of 6 games so far. Their defenders are good - not great - but with Kante acting as basically a 5th defender when under attack - they are stellar.

This is a bit of an unusual match in that there are two old school traditional strikers on the pitch - who will be largely playing the same role - hold up play and feed teammates and clean up anything that presents itself.

France lost the final 2 years ago against Portugal at home in the Euros, and I rarely give these things much importance - but I like having the side that is focused for sure. They are not going to take anything for granted here - they have a second shot and if they lose - it wont be because they took Croatia lightly.

I am going to take a chance on a multiple goal win tomorrow. Feel free to bet France at -.5 instead of what I am doing. I think there is a decent chance that France rolls them. I think they score early, which will cause Croatia to chase - and the fatigue catches up with them and France piles on late.

France -.5 -105 (90 minutes) (2.625 units to win 2.5)

France -1 +190 (90 minutes) (2 units to win 3.8)

Predicted final France 3-0

GL all.

I see you have added a psychological angle to your analysis! Needless to say, I agree. Thanks for all the hard work. And good luck to us all.