Formula 1 2016

As always, discussion is welcome and encouraged.

Most of you know, Formula 1 is my favorite sport to handicap, and we're about a month out from the first race.

The first round of testing just got done in Barcelona, and now's a good time to get some early bets in.

In terms of the level of competitiveness, the good news is that the Ferrari's are going to be better than they were last year..the bad news is the Mercedes are stronger than ever.

Mercedes ripped off several practice sessions of over 150 laps, and the drivers were blown away about how good the Mercedes felt.  Ferrari topped the speed charts on some days, but don't let that fool you.  Mercedes were testing their reliability, and they passed with flying colors.  One reporter said that you could just see in person at normal speed how much better the Mercedes were in the corners than everyone else.  Rosberg also said they haven't shown everything they have for this season, and most of the drivers agreed that Mercedes is probably stronger than last year.

Ferrari will be good, but I don't see them passing Hamilton for the championship.

Which brings me to the first bet of the year.

Hamilton is -155 to win the championship, and I'm not sure if that price gets better.  He would have to have a bad showing at the first couple races, and I don't see that happening.  Rosberg is certainly capable of winning a race here and there, but I don't see the Mercedes team wanting him to win a championship over Hamilton.

The Haas team is going to be interesting to support.  They tested great, and they have a good driver in Grosjean...but it's risky to support a first year team at the beginning because we don't know about their reliability.

The Force India cars are going to be great this year, and could be the third fasted team this year.  Hulkenberg and Perez are going to be fun to support, and I think they're ahead of Red Bull.  Hoping we get some great matchups early in the year before the books catch on to how good they are.

Red Bull will be top 10, but that's about it.  Don't see them doing much damage, and I will be looking to fade them if the matchup is right.

Williams is hard to figure out now.  They didn't show a whole lot in testing, so I'll probably stay away from them unless I find out some more info.

McLaren's could be fast if they can finish a race...that's about all the positive things I can say about them.

Other than that, there's nothing super important right now.  I'll update more as testing keeps happening.

Not gonna be a lot of betting if these lines continue.  Unbelievable how bad they are.  I guess they were sick of losing.

Gonna be interesting to see how the teams and drivers react to the new qualifying and especially the new tyre rule.  I actually think the new tyre rule will help other teams fight Mercedes.  There's strategy involved, and last year Mercedes struggled at times reacting to other teams strategy.

I'm putting a little bit on Hamilton -150 to win, and just a little bit on Vettel +650 to win the pole.  Ferrari loved the soft and super soft tyres in testing.  Wouldn't surprise me if he had a great showing in qualifying.

Bottas +125 top 6

I've got the Mercedes and Ferrari in the top 6, but even then Kimi is a wildcard.  He has a ton of screwups, he doesn't get enough out of the car he should, and he has multiple terrible race starts.

After Mercedes, and Ferrari, I have the Williams cars as the next best, so I'm pretty surprised to get Bottas at plus money for top 6.  Even if Mercedes, Ferrari, and Williams complete the top 6, it's still a winning ticket.  Ricciardo is always a top 6 threat, but I'm not sold on the Red Bull cars this year.  I think they're gonna be hit or miss.  Really like Bottas top 6 this week.  You can even talk me into Massa at +150, but I'll stick with Bottas for now.  

By the way, if you have lots of extra money laying around...take Mercedes to win the championship at -650.  Put your money on it, and you'll get a return at the end of the season.  It's better than a CD, a stock investment, etc...you get the picture.  No other team is gonna stay with them over the course of the season.

By far the most interesting story this year will be watching the Toro Rosso guys...lmao.  I don't know if I've ever seen anything like that.  I hope it happens every race.

Haas was impressive, but I'll be surprised if that keeps up.

The new rules have definitely thrown a wrench into the F1 season.  It makes it better for the racing, but not as good for the betting.  In years past I've started off great, so I'm not too happy about starting off at a loss.

Gonna take it a little easy until I can really get a feel as to whats going on exactly.

Couple early plays here for Bahrain (a really cool night race)

Hamilton to win +100

Gotta keep playing him to win.  He'll get those starts figured out.  

Ricciardo top 6 +120.

I don't think his 4th place finish was a fluke at Australia.  I like him at plus money for top 6 here.

Hulkenberg -150 top 10

This week I'm going to keep it pretty simple.

Ricciardo top 6 -175. 

I use a very complicated algorithm.  If my bankroll is lower at the end of the year than when I started...I lost money.  If it's higher than when I started...I won money.

If you're skeptical of me and my picks, don't follow them.  I'm not asking people to follow my picks or telling them to or guaranteeing winners.  I post picks, info and thoughts I have hoping people get enjoyment out of it and maybe make a little money along the way.  

Yeah, that was a small window to get that pick in.  But you can get these situations in racing lines.  No way the books are behind news like that in football.

Got him at +150...now he's at -225

Great qualifying for Ricciardo...I'm worried about the start with Ferrari trying to get ahead of him, but if he stays clean he should be top 6.

I got 2 more plays...

It's rare to find an underdog in F1, but I love Bottas +130 over Kyvat.  Bottas has been faster in practice, and in qualifying...and Red Bull said they couldn't believe how fast Ricciardo was so I don't think Kyvat has the pace.

One more play...

Perez -135 top 10.  I like his speed.  He just has to start clean and not do anything stupid, which is always an uncertainty with him, but I like the odds here.