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Calculating "At" Event Implied Probability

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Posts: 4
 
Prospect
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Joined: Jun, 2019
Posts: 1
Posted: #1

Hi all!

 

I am given a dataset containing football outcomes and odds. More specifically, I am given number of total corners (Lines) for each match and odds for betting on Under and Over. For example, for a random match the Line is 9 and the odds for Under is 1.8 while for Over is 2.0. 

 

I know how to find the implied probability for Under and Over but I do not know how to compute the probability of At the Line, ie. what is the probability of the total number of corners in this match being exactly 9.

 

Could you please help me with that?

 

Any contribution is highly appreciated! Thanks in advance for your assistance! 

 
Legend
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Joined: Jan, 2003
Posts: 32167
Posted: #2

Are you familiar with requentist and bayesian statistics?

Therein awaits your answer and I suggest you do the research because you won't find it among this motley crew of us degenerates in the General Discussion forum.


~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
All-Star
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Joined: Sep, 2002
Posts: 12927
Posted: #3
You'd have to look at the dataset of outcomes and count them.  

The total of 9 with odds 1.8 and 2.0 won't tell you that, because it dependent on the rules of the game (and styles of play, etc).

EG:  if the total is an even number, this is very likely in a Soccer match but impossible in a baseball game.
 
 
Veteran
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Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 1019
Posted: #4

yes u can find the answer here...there is only 1 proportion that works and can flip back and forth. ..road to home...check home and away gms for any 2 TMS that plays each other. ..eureka  ...

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