I have a serious question

Guys I don't really gamble much. To be honest, I have learned from my years of gambling and losing that pretty much no one wins the traditional way. I generally only bet scalps/arbitrage whatever you want to call it. And those exist far more often than you think. Like I pounded Astros +105 to win AL when they were up 2-0 over Seattle. Then Yankees were +165 to start ALCS ??? Easy money so long as Mariners didn't win 3 straight ( not a chance)

So here is my question. Do you think it's wrong for me to pound the crap out of a bad line ???

Of course, what's a bad line ? I think that Astros +105 was an obvious bad line. My browns under 10.5 in Vegas was a bad line.

But now I have just murdered a serious bad line. My book had pelicans playoff prop reposted at YES +160 NO -210 tonight after they crushed Brooklyn. Before the Season it was YES -170 NO +140. So obviously they went to repost adjusted line and put it backward. The kiosk says ALL BETS FINAL. So fk them. You can bet $500 at a time at the kiosk. I managed to quickly come up with $8600 and made 18 bets on YES +160 and they still had the same number up. So now I'm going to little creek casino sports book probably Saturday or Monday to bet $8600 on NO +160 to lock in $5160 profit.. Just have to get to the bank to get the money tommorow. These sports books have only been open here for about 7 months and still quite amateur. I know some people say this is wrong, don't really care. The books exist to take your money, every last dollar if they can. Many people even think games are fixed. So I'm gonna play just as cutthroat. I see a shot, I'm taking it. I see so many gamblers at the kiosks betting $50 massive, not a chance in hell parlays. The casino is happy to take that money. What's the difference. If they do something stupid, I'm gonna burn them if I can. Like I said, I chased the 53% ATS target for years. Impossible. Now I'm looking for scalps, bad lines, etc and the occasional +EV plays. I know my honesty opens me up for ridicule. I don't care. Im just asking why is it ok for the casino to use every trick in the book ( no clocks, alcohol, no windows, pumping in oxygen, possible fixing games, etc ) to take someone's paycheck even though they already get -110 but players are crooks if they take advantage of something. The casino doesn't care about you. They would happily have you homeless living under a bridge if they could. Why do we think that way ? I encourage you to be as cutthroat with them as they are with us. 

Agree! Brutal game that gambling is. Hang tough and be smart with money management being key for me. Take care.

For starters, I do not believe this story, nor any of your previous stories, but I will point out 2 flaws in your fiction nonetheless.

1) Your $8,600 bet on the bad line will be canceled, and you will be left with an $8,600 bet the other way.

2) You wrote that you "managed" to come up with $8,600 for the first bet, now we should believe you magically had another $8,600 in the bank to make the 2nd bet? Anyone who takes as much time as you do trying to canoodle with strange men on the internet does not have $8,600 in cash, much less $17,200 that he can just lay out there for 6 months.

Good luck with your future stories

@Hugh_Jorgan

 The play will not be cancelled. The kiosk clearly states all bets are final. So you think, I'm gonna hold these tickets and in April when I go cash them in they will say no bet. Bull. Clearly against house rules. Kiosk even says all bets are final. Dude I videoed my trip to Vegas last year and showed over $20,000 in cash and chips. If you think $17,200 is a lot of money, please come into the 21st century. Especially out here on the west coast it isn't a lot of money. But I do agree with you, a lot of these men here are pretty strange. 

Thanks man. Both bets stand. No way they can weasel out of that bet

@Hugh_Jorgan 

YouTube video 

Won $20,000 in Vegas and took it through TSA

Yeah that's me showing $25,000 in the Las Vegas airport. I even talk about Covers in the video. Yes, the video quality is bad. GUILTY.  But guy, if you really can't put your hands on $17,000 pretty easily, you should get off covers and get a job/better job. It's not a lot of money these days. Well unless youre a drug addict or degenerate gambler. 

This.

Who videos themselves carrying money through an airport?  25k?  So funny.  Back to the prison panties junior.

Best line of Thread…

”pumping in oxygen”. 

Danny: I will vouch for Hugh_Jorgan that he worked in a legitimate cash business where he easily handled 10X more, of his own money, than your $20K.  Let’s just say, “you have a tiger by the tail”.

Nice. Sounds like something possibly illegal, at least tax-evasion illegal. "Legitimate". Sounds great. I don't judge another man. I have never held $200,000 at one time but I do have a magic coin who seems to be on quite the run so maybe someday.

I must say I am impressed and shocked that no one has attempted to attack me for nailing bad lines. I actually look for bad lines/scalps/hedges. That's my angle. That and huge MLs on teams that aren't gonna lose. I'm not trying to lose anything. 

That’s what I do on Saturdays.  Do between a 3 and 6 team ML parlay.  Huge 3 touchdown favorites who are not going to lose on their home turf.  Teams that are 17 to 21 chalks are usually between -1700 to -2500 ML.  Stack a few of these together and you can get even money when cashed.  

This is spot on golden goose.

I'm surprised at how much flak I have taken for betting huge ML favorites. Even with the fact that I have posted 12-14 and EVERY SINGLE one of them won. We are looking for +EV and that can be found at any price. It's probably more likely to be found on a huge ML as most people completely ignore them. Most of them have very limited bankrolls and don't want to go all in $40 to win $2 on a -2000 ML. No, they want to play four different $10 twelve team parlays (which are never +EV)

Stop pretending big favorites are "+EV" because you have won 12-14 of them.  That is baked in the odds.  You only have to lose 1 out of 20 to not be profitable betting in to -2000 lines.

Try to follow this....

The spread on a typical -110 bet is 20 cents.  The "midpoint" is 10 cents.  The midpoint is the actual expected result at no vig. This makes you have to win approx 52.5% of your wagers to break even.

When you get in to big favs, the midpoint is sometimes huge - like when you bet a -2000 favorite and the dog is +1000, you are actually paying WAY more vig from the expected midpoint than on a -110 bet.

So when you bet -2000, it is like going up to a roullette wheel and betting 37 of the 38 numbers at -5000.  Sure, you are going to win a bunch before you lose 1, but when you lose that 1 - you are paying WAY too much from the midpoint (in this case 37-1) that it kills your bankroll.

Big favorites are a losers game.  Not because of anything other than you are paying too much to bet them - and dont tell me about "value" - because there is no way to overcome the huge vig.

@vanzack

 Ok 1 last time then we are going to part ways because it's all pointless.

For someone who is able to magically get the best lines in the world, you sure post some dumb stuff.

NO huge moneylines DO NOT have "way more vig". They have Less. PERIOD.

A huge moneyline -2000/+1000 bet has LESS vig from expected midpoint than a -110 bet. So I bet the -2000 sixteen times and go 15-1 which is the expected midpoint. I bet $20 to win $1 each time, so I lose $5 on $320 in bets which is about 1.6%. The -110 is 4.5%. "Way more vig ???????"

WHEN ARE YOU GOING TO PUT IN THE WORK?

Save the jibber jabber nonsense. You are dead wrong on that. 

I never advocated betting every single huge ML. I picked the ones I liked. I never said every one of them was +EV. For you to suggest that there are no +EV plays at big MLs just shows that you are not the perfect genius you try to pass yourself off as. Of course, there is no need to ever bet a huge ML when you can consistently get better odds and lines than anyone else in the world. Odds and lines so amazing that they actually more than overcome the juice. Which you and I both know is complete BS. 

And your roulette example is silly. Those are fixed odds plays. All -EV. To compare that sort of bet to sports betting, where we are looking for +EV  plays to a game like roulette that has none truly has me scratching my head. 

Again when I bet huge MLs, I am not just saying, hey they are -2500 they will win for sure. I am picking the ones that I believe are +EV. And the 12 straight I hit were not close to -2000. They ranged from -400 to -1200. Just surprised that huge MLs get so much more negative response than huge multi team parlays which are pretty much always -EV. That is the true losers game. 

But of course I would be happy to give the huge moneylines up as soon as you show the board how to consistently get the best odds and lines of anyone on Earth. Lines so amazing you can hit 46% of your -110 plays and still win. Lol. I really can't believe a few of these guys actually buy your con man BS. 

Now for the second time, we are done. It's as pointless as watching grass grow. 

The irony of discussing vig with someone who doesn't pay any.

Tommorow Boise State -5000 not gonna lose. 

Your math is both unsurprising and funny at the same time.

If you bet a true -1500 expected, and lay -2000, and you bet $20 each time (your example) - you would pay 31% vig.  

Your 15 winners would equal $300, your loser would be -$400, so for every $320 bet you would lose $100.  

Really, you are dumb.

So to summarize....  You are looking to bet +EV bets while paying vig in the double digits.

Meaning, you have the ability to pick out games and overcome vig like in the example above in the 30% range.

OK Junior.  I think you have been properly exposed.  Stick to prison meetings and panty fantasies behind bars.  Suits you better.  There isnt any math involved.

This is my current posted record:

Record this NFL season - 35-24 (right at 59.3%)
Units W/L is - 81.5-53 (right at 60.5%)
With full -110 vig:  81.5 - 58.3 (58.2%)

You and your math again are tripping you up.  Maybe a community college math class?

@vanzack

 I don't know if you are truly that bad at math or if you just don't understand vig ( since you don't include it in your false calculations ) but what you posted is dead wrong.

If I bet $20 to win $1. I win $15 on the 15 winners and lose $20 on the 1 loss. I lose $5 total on $320 in bets. That is ~ 1.6%.

We can completely change the numbers like you did to $400 to win $20 and the vig is exactly the same.

I would win $300 and lose $400. Loss of $100 on $6400 in bets ($400 bet 16x). It is still 1.6%. Of course, maybe I get the greatest numbers and lines of anyone on Earth and thus don't even pay vig. Lol

It's not too hard to see why so many people constantly call you an asshole and a jerk. To keep bringing up prison and panties when this topic is completely different. It's exactly what a child does. I never said you aren't still up units on a 34-23 record, what I said is you completely ignore vig which inflates your units won. And the BS about you getting "better lines than anyone else". Lol. You are so perfect and wonderful. The best lines hunter anywhere. Lol. Go ahead make a prison or panty comment now. I'm seriously starting to think you are a sheltered 28 year old still living with mommy. 

By the way, there is a vig calculator at sports book scout.com

Google it 

I just entered -2000/+1000 

And also -110/-110 

The -2000/+1000 

HAS LESS VIG 

Go ahead and Google it 

mr wannabe genius --

YOU ARE WRONG 

Also, I never bet a ML with such extreme numbers so you are even more wrong as I used the extreme nonsense numbers you made up and there is still less vig in the example that you claimed had "way more vig". So maybe you need to get out of your momma's basement, get past your massive ego, and enroll in CC. In this case, you are 100% WRONG

Go ahead Mr Ego. Google the calculator and input the numbers. YOU ARE WRONG. 

Past* 

Can't wait for the prison/panty smartalleck remark. 

There are also vig calculators at oddsjam and bettoredge. They all say less vig in -2000/+1000 then -110/-110 

YOU ARE WRONG

Prison panty sniffer.

I should have stopped at this.  It was the first few sentences of this thread.

You win Danny Boy.  You are right, I am wrong.  Keep betting in to -2000 lines, it is the only way to win.

The only thing I will not allow you to do is tell me that I cant win, and that others cant win - because I do and others do.  YOU CANT.  My record is real.  With -110 vig, I am currently at 58%, and this is a pretty average year so far.