Is the Westgate Supercontest worth it?

Debating on entering this year. A bit torn however...

Entry Fee: $1,500

Out of state proxy service to enter my picks: $300

Airfare/lodging to register (must register in person): $400 +/-

So, I guess I'm trying to determine if it's worth the $2,200 to enter...obviously the odds of cashing are fairly slim.

However, I feel like if you just focused on these 5 picks each week then it would be tremendous entertainment (there is a mini contest the last few weeks of the season to keep it interesting for those that are out of contention toward the end of the year). I feel like the best plan of attack would be to invest all of your time in those 5 picks each week and monitor them. Theoretically this would keep you from chasing, having interest in games that have no relevance to you etc.

Thoughts on this? Thanks!

Contest is a great idea but poorly run.

 

This is actually very insightful.

I did the contest several years back, and actually finished 9th.

It is extremely top heavy.  Meaning, you can have a fantastic season and finish in like the top 10% and get nothing.  When I finished 9th, it came down to one win or one loss for like tens of thousands of dollars - because the top positions graduate at such a high rate.

This has been brought up many times to the folks at the Westgate, and they have made changes.  BUT....  They put in an administrative fee - so while all of the 1500 used to go to the prize pool - now only like 1380 (off the top of my head) does.

So if you are looking from an ROI perspective - it is a bad bet.  According to your math - you are putting in 2,200 to get 1,380 worth of value.  But it is a one of a kind deal for now - but I fully expect there to be a national contest soon linking all of the states that have legalized and it will be much better run than this one.

I will tell you, that it does keep you interested.  I am not sure I have ever been more vested in any football games than the last 5 I had on the last Sunday the year I came in 9th.  Going in to the last week, I could have won the whole thing, or come out of the money - so those 5 games (along with every game on that week) were basically amped up way beyond normal.

 

GL

AD1260....

 

You also get in to very strategic situations that you really shouldn't be forced in to because they are not football related, but game theory related.  This mostly comes down to the fact that the Westgate puts lines out on Wednesday for EVERY game.

For example...  (this is several years ago off the top of my head)

GB was playing the Bears, and it was week 17 and there Rogers was questionable with injury and there was also questions around who would play because of playoff situations etc.  I think the Westgate put out the line at PK, and by Friday the real line was like GB -7.

So I was forced to make a choice.  Take GB like everyone else, or take a real gamble on taking the Bears, or ignoring the game.  If the bears won, I would be one of the very few who did this, and I would make up a game on virtually the whole field.

To my recollection, I did take the bears, and I think the game came down to the last second but the Packers won (but didnt cover the real line).   So as expected, 99% of the contest won that game, and I lost.  This was in week 17 and I was possibly going to win the whole thing so this was extremely risky.

But this is game theory, not handicapping - and that pissed me off even to this day.  I have skipped the contest in the last few years because of this - but might do it this year if I find myself out in Vegas before kickoff day.

 

Van,

Thanks for the feedback. Yeah, I discovered that the contest is definitely super top heavy which is quite annoying. However, I think the entertainment factor that stems from it would be like no other wagering experience on earth. Wow, 9th place overall is fantastic and you had a chance at winning the whole thing....probably the coolest experience ever for a football Sunday (and the week leading up to that Sunday).

I know the game theory aspect of it is super neat as well. I think that it would be nerve-racking dealing with picking games the last couple weeks where teams are playing for nothing, resting starters, "playing for pride"/spoilers, tanking, etc. I've also read that it's super risky/stupid to play the Thursday night game ever (and may the MNF game too?).

Still pondering it all really. Very tempted for sure....also kinda tempted to try and recruit a friend to help mitigate costs. However, I think that two guys picking five games a week unanimously would be very tough (or figuring out a joint plan of attack for that matter). Decisions, decisions.....

If you don't want to make a trip to Vegas then don't enter.  If you want to make the trip, then you can't count the costs of airfare and lodging towards the cost of it, so the juice will be reasonable.  Every year, a handful of people quit the contest so you'll have that help with the odds a little.

Thanks for the feedback. Definitely don't mind making a trip to Vegas (I'm a huge poker player) so I would just go for a couple days and play poker/get registered/make a few baseball wagers. I'd NEVER complain about going to Vegas . So if I break it down to where it's only costing $1,800 it is a little easier to swallow. IF I did not cash then I could look at it like it cost me $105.88 a week for serious entertainment! It'd be like losing $105.88 for 17 consecutive weeks which wouldn't be the worst season ever if I just bet ATS hahaha.

Winning or even finishing in the top 10 would definitely be life changing money for someone like me...F the bragging rights!

Vanzack clearly had some success with it so that's awesome to hear. The more I interact in this thread the more I'm leaning toward giving it a shot! I'm sure I'll come to a conclusion over the next couple weeks.

I also see this year they are paying out the top 100 contestants for the first time ever and implemented a couple other bonus type offers as well as the mini contest for the last 3 weeks of the season. I feel like this is a welcome change! Thanks again fellas.

AD - just a tip...

I did it as a team once.  Instead of unanimously coming up with the picks, each pick cost 20% of the overall entry cost.

So in our case, we had 3 guys, one had 1 pick, while 2 had 2 picks.  The cost was 350 for each pick (the proxy was 250 total), so one guy paid 350 and the other two of us paid 700.

It worked out to be much easier than trying to pick games unanimously.  If any pick was countered by another guys pick (say I picked giants and another guy picked cowboys and they were playing each other), we threw that game out and picked another.

Hi Ad where ya been? You know I say go for it for any excuse for a Vegas trip..

This is much like high stakes Fantasy Football around since '02..Very top heavy and winning your league of 12 just nets you a few thousand but gets you to playoff race where the big $$ is.I always considered it week by week gambling $..

If the $ is tight maybe do sell a share of your entry just like the wsop,but you alone decide the picks..

If you do it check out the Huddle.com for another capping angle/ player projections,injuries etc most good info posted by Thursday with a Friday injury update.. GL man

Freaking GO FOR IT !!

Van---Definitely the best idea I have heard regarding the team route. I don't think there's any other way to do it...

Thanks!

Any decision on whether or not you are entering this season or not?

What's up buddy?! I've been around. Lurking a little on the forums here and there but took a short break for a while. Had a tough football season (the Saints/Vikings playoff game still gives me nightmares one of the worst losses ever for me). Bowl Season sucked. March Madness sucked. First half of baseball season sucked. Haha then my money management and disciplined started getting shoddy so I had to re calibrate and take a little break. But it happens, downswings happen, variance happens, just like poker....just gotta stay the course! So all good.

I've just recently gotten back in to the good old workforce. Trying to re-acclimate myself to the work grind as opposed to the poker grind. May 2017 I got tired of working and decided to play poker full time. The financials were/are in line. My girlfriend supported it and she knows I'm passionate about poker so I figured let's roll. I played for 10 months full time. I live outside of Raleigh, NC so I was driving every other week to MGM National Harbor outside of DC or to Cherokee in western NC to play (took 3 trips to Vegas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma to play as well with friends). Shitty part was the traveling...4.5 hour drive to DC and 4.5 hour drive to Cherokee plus hotel costs, gas, etc. I was making enough to cover expenses, slightly grow my bankroll, and save a tad. But it wasn't enough to warrant the drive and being away from my girlfriend every other week (we live together outside of Raleigh). So she wanted me to go back to work so I could be home and have that peace of mind of the steady paycheck. So I obliged. However, I've been assured that I'll be able to continue my poker dream once we live closer to a card room. Which probably won't be far down the road. We are pondering the idea of moving to Phoenix or Florida next year sometime or maybe 2020 (wanna mix it up).  Not gonna lie, that 10 months of freedom was an intoxicating drug. ZERO conference calls, emails, texts, alarm clocks, deadlines, inventories, coworkers, etc....just me myself and I focusing on poker and studying up on my game. SO, needless to say, I will be striving to get back to it ASAP.

About to refocus on this second half of baseball season and ponder on the supercontest or at least gear up for football even if I don't enter the contest! Hope all is well on your end. Shoot us an update when time permits! 

[ but I fully expect there to be a national contest soon linking all of the states that have legalized and it will be much better run than this one.

Hey Ad,Sounds like you had a fun year man.Sportsbetting aside though.Keeper of a girlfriend IMO

.Check out SW FL if you do move..card rooms in Tampa and Ft Myers.Seminole Hard Rock...No state income tax,place is booming yet not crazy like the East coast..occasional hurricane but WTF we deal with it and plenty of warning to prepare..Moved here 25+ years ago and thought about AZ or NV but give me 75 degrees in February I'm all set.

Would like to root you on in the contest and willing to chip in a small percent as a silent partner if needed..I need some more action than just the Fantasy and the Bitcoins to Heritage Sports is such a PIA I gave up..

Best Wishes man glad things are cool with Ya,you have your head screwed on straight..

James,

Thanks buddy! I appreciate the support. Yes, sir....she is DEFINITELY a keeper. An engagement is more than likely on the horizon. I've played a lot of poker in a lot of spots but sadly never in Florida. I know the area you speak of is an absolute hotbed for poker/living in general. That no state income tax is sweet for sure. But damn, it seems like a lot of funky garbage happens in Florida coupled with those hurricanes! But hey, we live a simple, minimalist lifestyle so it doesn't take much to make us happy. We don't mind the heat so I don't think we can go wrong with Florida, Arizona, or Nevada (NV probably on the wishful thinking side ---but hey, I can dream!).

Let's talk a little further about that silent partner idea. I'll shoot you a PM if that's cool with you and we'll see what we can figure out.

James,

Actually...evidently you have to be "friends" on Covers in order to send PM's. Sheesh...I remember when I was in 8th grade. My God.

Nonetheless, I sent you a friend request haha...accept it and I'll shoot you a message.

I agree with everything Van said. I got in in about four years ago with some friends. Didn't work out real well. His example of the Packers game made me laugh when last year I was in a Westgate type contest with about 30 of us from work and I was a game or so behind and I bet the early week bad line knowing I would be the only one on it. And I lost.

That was easy:

This explains it better. Tony Miller is a great guy as well

t6rider,

Thanks for the feedback buddy. Yeah, I actually am maybe leaning toward waiting another year or so on the Supercontest. I didn't mention this in my previous posts but last year I did a "mock supercontest" and documented my record. I finished 45-37-3 which would NOT have been in the money. In all honesty I didn't do tons of research on the plays as it was for fun just to see how I would fare against the winners of the actual Supercontest. Right now the biggest deterrent is actually getting out to Vegas before the September 3rd registration deadline. I also kind of like the idea of holding on to my $2k and allocating it for my poker bankroll. Ahhhh decisions decisions decisions...always perplexing.

The Golden Nugget contest looks awesome too and more appropriately priced IMO (kinda shitty that the proxy service is the same cost of $300 for this contest as well). Thanks for sharing. I'm much more proficient in NFL opposed to NCAAF. The fact that you make 7 picks AND you can mix and match pro and college lines adds a very different dynamic for sure.

The Golden Nugget contest is super intriguing, however.

Alas, I guess I will ponder on it for another couple days. IF I do end up entering one of these I'll need to book my airfare soon as I'm simply running out of time. All good regardless. I'll post my final decision within the next week. Thanks again for taking the time!

PS---go Nats in this Game 1 of their doubleheader today.

Ad replied to you via PM,no response received..

Just responded

Hi 1260

Well 3 things

#1.....you have until sat. sept. 8th 1100 am pt. to reg. for the supercontest not sept. 3rd (thats the golden nugget cutoff i think)

#2....you can find some great proxy's for 250 or 200...not 300

#3....imagine in late dec. your mock westgate contest would have won the world championship...could you live with yourself????

Enter man....you won't regret it

I just was in vegas (came all the way from canada) and entered both the world championship and the golden nugget and i payed a highly respected proxy a total of 350 for both (200 for westgate and 150 for GN...50 discount for 2 contests)

GL 1260 but only for 2nd place...that i am sure you would take (around 600k)

Thanks for the feedback everyone.

I decided to just rip it in and give it a shot! I actually ended up using some Capital One rewards miles and booked a flight out to Vegas for next week. I also have a free night comped at a few Caesars properties so I'll be staying at Harrahs (showering at Harrahs).

I figured what the hell, money comes and goes and $1800 really isn't that serious.

Plus I think the entertainment value and joy alone from capping each week and sweating my plays each week will be completely worth it. I'm definitely super pumped about the decision and am already tearing through Week 1 lines/games/matchups. Should be a fun season regardless if I cash or not...but cashing would be sweet no doubt.

Alright fellas, well have a great day and let me know if any of you other guys end up registering for the Supercontest as well! Here's to a profitable upcoming football season and hopefully a winning baseball year as the season wanes on. Let's roll!

 

Great 1260......it's like playing the lottery with your own picked #'s....you cannot miss a draw cause what would happen if you missed 1 and your #'s came in......it's 50 floors down to the pavement. If your doing a mock westgate contest and you are close to the money as you were last year, 1260 you have to enter if you have the means esp. considering your airline and hotel being pretty much free this is a no brainer....great to see you in the contest considering your from covers and you will have around 40 of us i am guessing who post here along with you. Now you can post in rudy's thread but not in the mock mode.

GL......will be watching your results.

 

 

The nugget looks like a better contest IMO.  They claim to pay out 100% of the entries and it pays the top 20% compared to only the top 10% w the Super Contest.