Just conducted a really weird betting experiment

Question

What i did was look for a week at my sportsbook where i lost a decent amount of money.  I wanted to see if had i reversed all my plays for that week would have i been better off.  I went thru all the plays for the week, reversing the winners to losers and the losers to winners.  I was kind of shocked at the results.  Had i reversed all the plays for the week, i would have still lost money for the week.  So it didnt matter one bit if i faded all of my plays for the week, i would have still lost.&#xD;&#xA;The orginal losing week =minus 696&#xD;&#xA;reversing the plays for the week= still minus 203&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;all i can say is trying to overcome that juice is very difficult.&#xD;&#xA;Give it a try guys on one of your losing weeks and see what would have happened.

cd329 · Answer

What i did was look for a week at my sportsbook where i lost a decent amount of money.  I wanted to see if had i reversed all my plays for that week would have i been better off.  I went thru all the plays for the week, reversing the winners to losers and the losers to winners.  I was kind of shocked at the results.  Had i reversed all the plays for the week, i would have still lost money for the week.  So it didnt matter one bit if i faded all of my plays for the week, i would have still lost.&#xD;&#xA;The orginal losing week =minus 696&#xD;&#xA;reversing the plays for the week= still minus 203&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;all i can say is trying to overcome that juice is very difficult.&#xD;&#xA;Give it a try guys on one of your losing weeks and see what would have happened.

JRBull · Answer

Are you playing alot of teasers and parlays?

Seahawk97 · Answer

Not sure if juice is the whole problem. Sounds like varying units played and poor money management possibly.

cd329 · Answer

Plays were all single bets and they were all for 50-100 bucks a game.  So no real differences in the amounts of the plays.&#xD;&#xA;Really try this and see what happens.  Find a week you lost money at your book and see if had you played the complete opposite would you have won. Am telling you, your going to be a little shocked.  I really wasnt expecting this outcome.  I thought for sure i would have won for the week reversing the plays considering how much i had actually lost for the week.&#xD;&#xA;I think the problem is the amount of plays and juice eating you up.

Seahawk97 · Answer

If you&#x27;re playing a large number of bets then sure the juice may be responsible. Would be interested in knowing your record on $100 bets vs $50 bets that week.

montedamastiff · Answer

I&#x27;m telling you guys.  The juice is a killer.  110 is rough,but I have seen it jump even higher. Sure parlays and some other teaser crap hurt.  But don&#x27;t under estimate the power of the juice.

cd329 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Seahawk97] If you&#x27;re playing a large number of bets then sure the juice may be responsible. Would be interested in knowing your record on $100 bets vs $50 bets that week.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;just went and looked it up.  my original 100 dollar plays went 3-7, so when i reversed them i was actually better on the 100 dollar plays.&#xD;&#xA;Its coming down to the fact, that am playing way to many games, to have the juice play that big an outcome. So all you can action junkies, reduce the plays.  &#xD;&#xA;Thats been my problem for years, i can never throw out plays. Honestly i dont even know why this even crossed my mind to check the reverse results. Kind of makes me sick that it wouldnt have mattered which way i played all week, i was gonna be a loser, just a matter of for how much, lolllllllllllllllllllll

JRBull · Answer

The amount of plays really has no bearing as the juice only applys to total monies wagered.Using 10% as a base for juice,let&#x27;s say that you win $1950 but have $2400 in losing wagers.After adding $240 in additional juice to your losses,you have a net loss of -$690 ($2400&#x2B;$240-$1950).If we were to reverse your wager sides,you would win $2400 but lose $2145 ($1950&#x2B;$195),for a net gain of &#x2B;$255.

IronCobra · Answer

Did you use a graduated cylinder? What about a bunsen burner?

cd329 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by JRBull] &#xD;&#xA;The amount of plays really has no bearing as the juice only applys to total monies wagered.Using 10% as a base for juice,let&#x27;s say that you win $1950 but have $2400 in losing wagers.After adding $240 in additional juice to your losses,you have a net loss of -$690 ($2400&#x2B;$240-$1950).If we were to reverse your wager sides,you would win $2400 but lose $2145 ($1950&#x2B;$195),for a net gain of &#x2B;$255.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;that is in correct, the more plays you bet the more juice you can lose.&#xD;&#xA;I converted your eaxmple above into 50 dollar plays. the record for the plays in your first part of the example is 39-48 =minus 690.  when you reverse those plays you now are 48-39 = plus255&#xD;&#xA;but now lets increase the amount of plays but still keep the difference in wins and losses at 7 play&#xD;&#xA;so now lets say the record is now 100-107.  at 50 bucks a play you would lose -885.  now reverse the plays and your record is 107-100 which would make you lose 200 bucks.&#xD;&#xA;so the amount of plays does have an effect on the amount of plays you make, if your are unable to increase your winning percent on the plays.

cd329 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by IronCobra] &#xD;&#xA;Did you use a graduated cylinder? What about a bunsen burner?&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;go jump off a tall building.  really whats the purpose of your post?&#xD;&#xA;go play on myspace.

Seahawk97 · Answer

Juice is definitely a factor. No doubt.

But the varying wager amounts is a bigger factor in my opinion. 3-7 on $100 bets would yield -440 if playing -110 juice. That's a lot of $50 wagers needed to overcome that. Not sure how switching those games wouldn't yield you a profit. Would be interested in knowing your overall record that week regardless of wager amount.

Seahawk97 · Answer

48-39 would be roughly 55% winners.107-100 is only roughly 52% winners.A comparable argument would have been 114-93.

Seahawk97 · Answer

3-7 on $100 bets would yield -440 if playing -110sorry. should have been -470.

cd329 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Seahawk97] 48-39 would be roughly 55% winners.107-100 is only roughly 52% winners.A comparable argument would have been 114-93.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;excellent point Seahawk, i missed that

hoopsstar22 · Answer

Hopefully that teaches you the lesson of flat betting and shopping around. Look at how much money you could save at -105, then look at how much you could save at -103 and lower. And that's only betting $100 per game.

Unless you can properly calculate your EV on a given play (which is very rare), or you have a numerical system that gives you a basis to make varying unit plays, varying your bet size really isn't and shouldn't be considered an option.

Over the long run, 95% of bettors will be farther ahead by flat betting.

Brent Musburger · Answer

Dick post, but pretty fucking funny.

The Giant · Answer

Why don&#x27;t you make Matchbook.com your friend?

cd329 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by The Giant] &#xD;&#xA;Why don&#x27;t you make Matchbook.com your friend?&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;is it easy to deposit into matchbook?  I have no trouble at carib and betcris with my visa check card

montedamastiff · Answer

Thank-You  How about the times you throw in a 115 or 120.

hoopsstar22 · Answer

cd -Matchbook takes about 10 min to deposit money in. They have a MoneyGram option that works outstanding. You go to your local Wal-Mart, or any gas station that does MoneyGrams, fill out the form with the deposit info that takes 5 min, go back to your PC and tell live help you deposited, and boom, you&#x27;re loaded and ready to enjoy reduced juice. You also should check out 5Dimes, for their reduced juice options. I got my last payout in less than 2 days. They offer -105 on every major sport, on game day. Most people that have problems with them are guys who play $1k&#x2B; per play, and consistently win. Then they cut you off. However, at the lower stakes, its not bad at all. Cris should only be used for taking advantage of opening lines early in the season. Now, they would be considered an almost useless book this late in the season. GL

The Hawk · Answer

Gotta go with fewer bets at more dinero..........juice is killing you. GL

montedamastiff · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by cd329] &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;that is in correct, the more plays you bet the more juice you can lose.&#xD;&#xA;I converted your eaxmple above into 50 dollar plays. the record for the plays in your first part of the example is 39-48 =minus 690.  when you reverse those plays you now are 48-39 = plus255&#xD;&#xA;but now lets increase the amount of plays but still keep the difference in wins and losses at 7 play&#xD;&#xA;so now lets say the record is now 100-107.  at 50 bucks a play you would lose -885.  now reverse the plays and your record is 107-100 which would make you lose 200 bucks.&#xD;&#xA;so the amount of plays does have an effect on the amount of plays you make, if your are unable to increase your winning percent on the plays.[/Quote]Yes and No,  110 is 110  But if you don&#x27;t limit the amount of games, you have more chance of splitting games.  More juice.   If want to conduct a real shocking experiment.  Go back and add  up juice lost in a week or two.  I&#x27;m not bashing anyone.  I did this years back, when I used to bet a lot of games.  It can be shocking.

alamo1836 · Answer

if you win 56% of your games...all same unit bets...it doesn&#x27;t matter if you play 100 or play 30.

depeche2 · Answer

At $100 play it sounds like you had around 100 plays and went 49-51. Only way you lose either way at -110 is if you win between 47.6% and 52.4 of your plays. But yeah, if you do, then you are going to either either way.

Just conducted a really weird betting experiment

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