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Losing aint fun.

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Legend
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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

ever take a home NFL favorite on the -500 ML, and lose by 14+pts, how do you feel?

ever take an UNDER 7 in MLB with both aces going head to head, and they score 12 runs, how do you feel?

ever take a NBA 'dog' (+4.5) with your team ahead by 12pts with less than 2 minutes to play and lose by one, how do you feel?

ever take a NHL [-1.5] PL with your team ahead in the 3rd period by 3 goals, only to blow-it in the final minute of play, how do you feel?

lately...Miami -vs- Duke, how do you feel?

Yes Van, these are only the mere tip of the iceberg shared by many sports bettors, there are more (examples) much more, but your point is well taken, regression not only impacts ones ego, it puts a cappers self esteem at bay until the cards turn in his favor, nothing more enjoyable than winning a sports wager, nothing worse than the agony of losing a sports wager, especially when you spend hours handicapping your so called POD, and the LOSS margin is considerable....

this is good reading, never before have I read a thread with this much integrity pertaining to losing, my read is mutual, and coincidal; one thing you can bank on, it turns around, and you come out stronger, the key question is when.

 


Keep at it.  The bad losses are enough to make you not sleep at night.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by The Hawk:

Regarding outdated models. Heard a discussion yesterday on hockey scoring. Last year, goals per game were at 2.7. When The Great One played, it was close to 4.0!

This year, scoring is down to 2.68 (number may not be exact, but was pointed out at being Under 2.7). One coach floated out that the goal should be bigger. I guess the Tampa goalie is as big as Gronk. Can you imagine trying to score a goal on Gronk?

Back on topic, how often do your models change? By week, month, game, year?

I would imagine trends/streaks/fluctuations are accounted for, but just how often? Just like last night, for example. Baylor at K-State. Baylor avg 60ppg, freshman Qb starting, and Kansas State is a grind/grind/grind type of team............how do you figure that? I don't, I just said, I don't know, I'll pass.

We all go through streaks. Statisticians call a lucky streak a "fluctuation of probability"

The idea, of course, is to not get fluct........................

I tweak all the time.  But I have to be honest with myself....  Am I as motivated as when I was poor and hungry 15 years ago?  I would have to honestly answer that as no.  I hate losing - but I could have 20 more years like this one and still be fine.  My rent and retirement money are in a different solar system than my gambling money - the two worlds never collide - so it is just ego at this point.

So I probably am not as on top of my game as I should be - or was - and that reality is hard to accept.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by Kurshka:

Van I hope your not being forced to go back to the corporate world. Its only gotten worse, at least for the insurance business. Government has made it so hard for us that work in Medicare. 

I do admire your decision and dedication. Things will swing back your way. Matter of time.

Nah.  Thankfully - I think I have that licked simply by living a very modest lifestyle.

I never want to go back.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn:

Win or lose, everything is a learning experience.  

Since you've been racking your brain over these last 9 months, what are your top conclusions as to why you are losing at an abnormal rate?  Are you expecting a correction with a winning streak on the horizon?

I dont think I have stayed ahead of the curve if I am being honest.  Or maybe the landscape has changed due to more savvy gamblers - like poker did when we went from the Moneymaker baitfish days to the post Black Friday shark days.

Or maybe it is variance.

Hard to tell.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Van,

I'd take a step back and resort to traditional capping (if you are truly using models for every pick).

There is no chance you can't cap these games traditionally. I know you look for edges and numbers and over the long-run do not believe traditional capping can get you where you need to go, but I'd resort to it now, revised the model in the meantime and then get back to what you like to do.

I'm assuming you use models for all your picks, correct?


Having said that, there are some great bets to be had on5Dimes on the World Series of Poker final table tonight...you in???

Didnt see the odds on the WSOP - but have been watching it.  There is probably no beating the chip leader McKeehan.  But will be watching tonight hoping he trips up.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


Agree.  And I have tried modifying a bunch of my core principles.  One thing I cant get past and mentioned in my first post - is coaching and penalties in football.  They should even out over the course of a season - but when you are betting on individual games - they can have a huge impact on your profit and loss.  And from where I sit - are largely unpredictable.



i haven't watched as much football this season but when i have. i've seen some colossal fuckups in terms of clock management mostly, and some playcalling.  just stuff that makes you wonder how the coach kept his job on the way back to the locker room.  i've made a few threads about them.  i imagine you've seen a few of them. 
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:



i haven't watched as much football this season but when i have. i've seen some colossal fuckups in terms of clock management mostly, and some playcalling.  just stuff that makes you wonder how the coach kept his job on the way back to the locker room.  i've made a few threads about them.  i imagine you've seen a few of them. 

I have seen your posts but have for the most part quit posting about clock management fukups.  It is still unimaginable to me that it still happens.  And it happens EVERY WEEK, in almost EVERY GAME - at the highest levels.

Anyone see how the Dolphins F'd up the first half by not calling a timeout?  Anyone see how Pittsburgh lost to Cincy by calling their two timeouts AFTER the two minute warning instead of before it - causing them 13 seconds (for no reason) - and then having the clock run out on them when they were on the 10 yard line?

It is incredible - but I feel like I am just beating a dead horse.

Some things have changed for the better.  Coaches are better at it - and things like kicking a FG first when you are down by 10 or 11 has become commonplace.

But nobody cares.  Nobody questions the Dolphins for letting the clock run in the first half with 20 seconds left when they had a timeout and were on the two yard line (they ended up not scoring on second down with only 2 seconds left in the half).  If they would have called a timeout with 20 seconds left they would have had 4 plays to score.  But the announcers dont know, the reporters dont know, and nobody cares.  

And that happens EVERY week, in MULTIPLE games per week.

I have resigned as the leader of this cause.  I gladly hand that over to you.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #58
the pittsburgh one was incredible.  there was a giants one that was legendary.  also a nebraska (if i remember correctly) one that was hard to believe.  a few others i can't remember. and that's just what i saw. i think i missed miami.  it's insanity.
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


I have seen your posts but have for the most part quit posting about clock management fukups.  It is still unimaginable to me that it still happens.  And it happens EVERY WEEK, in almost EVERY GAME - at the highest levels.

Anyone see how the Dolphins F'd up the first half by not calling a timeout?  Anyone see how Pittsburgh lost to Cincy by calling their two timeouts AFTER the two minute warning instead of before it - causing them 13 seconds (for no reason) - and then having the clock run out on them when they were on the 10 yard line?

It is incredible - but I feel like I am just beating a dead horse.

Some things have changed for the better.  Coaches are better at it - and things like kicking a FG first when you are down by 10 or 11 has become commonplace.

But nobody cares.  Nobody questions the Dolphins for letting the clock run in the first half with 20 seconds left when they had a timeout and were on the two yard line (they ended up not scoring on second down with only 2 seconds left in the half).  If they would have called a timeout with 20 seconds left they would have had 4 plays to score.  But the announcers dont know, the reporters dont know, and nobody cares.  

And that happens EVERY week, in MULTIPLE games per week.

I have resigned as the leader of this cause.  I gladly hand that over to you.


+1
 
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Posted: #60
different perspectives, different angles, teamwork, fundamentals. team up and win big
 
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Posted: #61
maybe there is another reason you can't sleep.
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:

Betting on sports gets harder every year.  More info, more smart people betting, better computer algorithms, etc.


 

  What works one year, completely backfires the next.  It seems like I am always adapting to the technology and mathematics, and never catching up, or catching on.

  
 
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Posted: #63
To win gambling requires  one thing that most gamblers never achieve selective restraint.
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Thanks everyone for the kind words.

Unbelievably - I am happy to report I had a monster day.  My first winning day of NFL was a huge one.

Started off with Crystal Palace ML against Liverpool (+650), then went 7-1 in NFL - and with all things - I swear (why would I start lying now) - a ML parlay with the Titans, Colts, Panthers, and 49ers.  It was a micro bet - but it paid 98-1.  Unreal. 

Thanks again for the kind words.  I am chalking today up to Karma. 

I will respond individually to the questions asked in here tomorrow once I have a chance to catch up.

PS - one quick note....  I never rooted against CG.  I never wished him to go broke.  I tried to help the guy a million times.  I think it is funny that GG thinks my online relationship with CG has somehow influenced my success in gambling - but so be it - people think all kinds of crazy sh*t.  But I do think in the interest of fact - it should be known that I wish CG nothing but the best - but know he is a loser - and unless he takes the time to learn his craft - he is going to go broke again and again.

So says the guy with a 9 month losing streak. 



 
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Posted: #65
Van keep it up, you are not the only one this season. The worst part is just when you think it can't get any worse..bam.. it does!
Keep you head up we will go through it.
After night comes day.....


 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Simply put - 2015 has been the worst gambling year of my life.

Ever since the Super Bowl interception, I have been losing at a pace that would make anybody question probability, science, and mathematics.  I have had one major win (Jordan Speith at 12-1 to win the Masters), but besides that - I have been leaking money in seemingly incredible ways.

I am writing this because everyone on Covers always wins and I thought it would be interesting to some to read that while I take this very seriously, put an enormous amount of time in to it - that everyone sooner or later inevitably goes through bad streaks.  Mine seems to be particularly long and painful - but it happens - and being honest about it here might help inject some reality in to those who might be thinking about moving to Vegas to chase the dream.

I am at the point where I have questioned everything.  Are my stats models out of date?  Have I lost the ability to see things the way I used to?  Should I not be betting a sport like football that is so heavily influenced by penalties and coaching?  Should I bet more - or less - or quit altogether?

In the past 2 years of the supercontest I came in 9th overall with a 52-30-3 record, then followed that up with a 51-34 (from memory) record last year - only to have a 13-27 (YES that is correct) record this year.  13-27!!  That just seems impossible.

I always try to be honest here.  And honestly - the last 9 months have me questioning everything I thought I knew about sports gambling - and my sanity.  But I do know that this is part of the deal - I just wish the Gambling Gods would be a little bit kinder about how I lose these games.  

But I will keep pressing on and trying to learn all that I can to get better.  I read this site every day - and while my posting has gone way down - I do learn a ton from reading all different types of posts here. 

GL all.


Winning games lately in cfb has proven to be a challenge, at least for my account.  Often have wondered if the dynamics of the current game have changed to the point where my handicapping has become obsolete.

3 things that make cfb largely a crapshoot:

1)  Clock management is a lost art. Very few run clock when they should, and force tempo when they should.  The era of the hurry-up offense has brought about basketball on grass. Score a bunch and then have no clue how to protect a lead.

2)  Instant replay is not reliable.   No consistency at all with replay. Seemingly every 5th play goes to the monitor. Kills the flow of the game. NCAA changed the out of bounds clock stoppage rule to speed games up....and they are now longer than ever.  Replay dictates pace, and controls momentum swings.

3)  The exploding population in the US (and parts of the world) have led us to an incredibly deep talent pool of big, strong, kids that can play D1 football. Talent parity, and lots of it.

So, if everyone has players, and 85% of the teams out there play identical hurry-up, high risk spread offenses, then we are simply rolling the dice on turnovers and penalties.  

Personally, I have cut bet size and frequency. Best of luck moving forward. 
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
 
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Posted: #67
The reason we were so much better in the 80's and 90's is for one the main person or small group that put a number on the games is gone and that part is quite different.The other reason and really most important is there is so much talent going around and not to just a 10 or 15 teams. Kids are starting football early and playing through till college.,thats why the so called creampuff games are sometime big upsets. Toledo beat Arkansas at the start of the season not because the pigs are so bad but also because Toledo can play with the big boys today. I was much better capping years ago with no computer or much besides a newspaper and games on TV. I was at the track years ago and I just knew who was going to win this 6f race so i put the horse over all to make my exacta pay 2 or 3 hundred bucks and left out one crappy horse and sure enough guess who placed, its been over 20 years but I'll never forget it.You've got to laugh sometimes.....
 
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Posted: #68
We have a very parallel year my friend. 
Especially currently. 
Poker is still keeping me up, but capping this year is rough. I like how your post deals with honesty. The recognition of failure is significant. 
Sometimes I question, do I really enjoy doing this? Especially during a losing period. Many experts suggest a hiatus. Take a week, a month, whatever time is necessary and so something fun. 
There will always be action.
 
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Posted: #69
Hope you turn it around Van. you going to post your euros picks?
 
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Posted: #70

Fukk Off Azzhole... You haven't got a clue about what CG and I converse.
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
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Posted: #71
Enjoyed reading this posts. Not too many cappers want to admit they go thru losing streaks. Most disappear from this site when that happens.. It seems every season we go thru slumps. I had a terrible one right before the All Start break in June this year. Took a couple weeks off to regroup. The NFL has been tough to cap this season and I have backed off the last few weeks but I have made money betting the college games especially the smaller conferences. Find a niche and keep plugging away.

GL
 
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Posted: #72
i'm guessing with the number of bad teams that covered yesterday, vanzacksports had a pretty good day.  
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Thanks everyone for the kind words.

Unbelievably - I am happy to report I had a monster day.  My first winning day of NFL was a huge one.

Started off with Crystal Palace ML against Liverpool (+650), then went 7-1 in NFL - and with all things - I swear (why would I start lying now) - a ML parlay with the Titans, Colts, Panthers, and 49ers.  It was a micro bet - but it paid 98-1.  Unreal. 

Thanks again for the kind words.  I am chalking today up to Karma. 

I will respond individually to the questions asked in here tomorrow once I have a chance to catch up.

PS - one quick note....  I never rooted against CG.  I never wished him to go broke.  I tried to help the guy a million times.  I think it is funny that GG thinks my online relationship with CG has somehow influenced my success in gambling - but so be it - people think all kinds of crazy sh*t.  But I do think in the interest of fact - it should be known that I wish CG nothing but the best - but know he is a loser - and unless he takes the time to learn his craft - he is going to go broke again and again.

So says the guy with a 9 month losing streak. 

Shocked to see that type of bet from you, you are one of the few that realizes parlay are sucker bets that don't really pay the true odds and are played by suckers and desperate gamblers, what's next buying points and teasers Glad to see things turning up for you
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

i'm guessing with the number of bad teams that covered yesterday, vanzacksports had a pretty good day.  

Indeed.

Bad teams covering is always a good day in my house.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
 
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Posted: #75
best underdog week of the season and i was gunshy and didn't take advantage.  only made 3 bets. 
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