BELMONT DISCUSSION

It should be horse racing law that any and every Belmont Stakes thread start with this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoFquax2F-k

My one thought so far for the Belmont is, I do not like Nehro one bit.  Although he ran a different style in the Derby, he's shown the affinity to be a one run closer.  Those kinds of horses don't win the the Belmont as often as one might think, and there's not an abundance of cheap speed in here to set it up for him.

He's a throw out for me.

nothing like chuggin down some morning coffee and watching "Big Red" moving like a tremendous machine, get's me all hopped up for Arlington today....Agreed ....do not like Nehro to win this Belmont, if I were going to play a closer I'd be on Master Of Hounds anyway I feel he'll be moving better late at this grueling final 12th panel. Happen to be checking out some early data for this test and it shapes up to be a race were I just can't take a stand right now on one horse. according to some comp data here's how I see it right now.

TOP 5 CLOSERS 

(1) Master Of Hounds

(2) Brilliant Speed

(3) Santiva

(4) Nehro

(5) Animal Kingdom

TOP 5 SPEED

(1) Shackleford

(2) Mucho Macho Man

(3) Isn't He Perfect

(4) Prime Cut

(5) Awesome Patriot

like Master Of Hounds right now early with ya.....I'm hoping this one would wind up going off at a nice price like somewhere around 10/1 but time will tell. This one just seems like the distance will be perfect here

otherwise I'm on Shackleford, this is one game SOB hey if I can get anything around 5/1 with this one....oh baby ...

Anybody got any info on Santiva's trip in the Kentucky Derby?    I tried following him on the replay I have and I lose him every time.    Seems like he may have been in traffic the entire race.   He was right there with Master of Hounds at the end though.    He had a bad trip in the Bluegrass Stakes before that.    He's also a horse that I've seen show early speed before like in the Risen Star.   So like Master Of Hounds I think it's possible he could be closer to the front in the Belmont which most people think is the best trip for the Belmont.

Just can't get a read on his Derby trip.      Think Santiva's flying under the radar a little bit.   

I didn't open the first link, but I bet it contains the line

"Secretariat is moving like a tremendous machine."

I very underrated Belmont performance, IMO, was Point Given in 2001.

I am against Santiva in the Belmont. Realistically, what has the horse done other than been the product of hype? He didn't have a brutal Derby trip, he was terrible in the Bluegrass. There just isn't the awe performance this year that gives him value.

Jockey change to Dominguez on MMM today, but I am not sold on him as I was in the Derby and Preakness. Even though he lost a shoe, I don't like the regression in the race.

I will be interested to see Animal Kingdom and Nehro's final works.

One of the greatest lines ever uttered by a race caller no doubt.   

So you were able to follow Santiva's trip in the Derby from beginning to end on the replay?    Cause I completely lost him on the backstretch.    Looked like he was buried in horses again. 

And what has he done?   Well for one he was only a 1.5 lengths behind Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star and that was off a layoff and MMM might have been in peak form for that race.  Ran some other very good races also.   Less horses and a better trip this time then in the Bluegrass and Derby,  you never know my friend.    

I found videos on YouTube of overhead shots of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.

Kentucky Derby Overhead View

Preakness Overhead View

You can really see the impressive move that Master Of Hounds made in the Derby on that video.    And DJBrow was right about Santiva's trip.   It wasn't bad.   Santiva ran a nice race in the Derby.  Watch the very end before the video shots off.   Santiva pulls up right beside Master Of Hounds at the wire.   He wasn't as impressive as Master Of Hounds but he kept on coming.  He kept grinding.    I think they both have a decent shot in the Belmont especially if they are closer to the pace this time.    If Master Of Hounds makes that same move in the Belmont,  watch out.  

But of course if Animal Kingdom and Nehro run the same races they ran in the Derby,  watch out for them too.   

And if Mucho Macho Man runs the way he ran in the Derby......   watch out.

One thing I can say for sure is that I don't like Shackleford in the Belmont.     Too far for him.    

I just watched Mucho Macho Man's trip in the Preakness from overhead.    That horse definitely has some excuses besides the fact that the trainer says he lost a shoe again.    He was getting bounced around quite a bit in that race.   5 wide on the second turn and a couple horses were pushing him out and he still looked like he had a little bit left in the stretch.

That horse may have been better than his past performance line looks for that race.    And he was solid in the Derby too.  

This Belmont is going to be a helluva race in my opinion.  

I won't be playing chalk I guarantee you that.    Gonna be a lot of value on several of these horses.

Watch Mucho Macho Man's start in the Preakness.    He came out a bit and brushed with Dialed In and than Isn't He Perfect came flying across and pushed MMM inside and cut him off.   There was some ground lost there for sure.  

Here's the chart comments for these two horses. (my comments in parentheses)

Mucho Macho Man broke outward and brushed with Dialed In, steadied when put in tight in the opening stages (when Isn't he Perfect came flying across and cut him off), angled out 4 wide into the backstretch, moved up between rivals past the 5/8ths pole, came under a solid ride 5 wide  (second turn with a horse pushing him out) leaving the 3 furlong marker , then failed to generate the needed stretch kick (no kidding , what horse could after that trip )



Isn't He Perfect bobbled at the break, came in early crowding rivals (Mucho Macho Man)

You can definitely see all of that on the overhead video.   And don't forget Mucho Macho Man supposedly lost a shoe in this race.   

Anyone ever notice that sometimes it always the same horses that get in trouble and end up having a bad trip?

Maybe it's the horse? Certain horses seem prone to this.

Quote Originally Posted by vetdrm:

Thanks Bull 

my pleasure

Master of Hounds

Did he spend the 5 weeks between the Derby and the Belmont back in Europe or did he stay here to prep?