Florida Derby Analysis and Picks

Ali vs Frazier. Yankees vs. Red Sox.  Valparaiso vs. George Washington (not quite).

Nyquist vs Mohaymen.

This is about as good as it gets in a TC prep as the Florida Derby at Gulfstream should provide excitement at every turn. I’d love to see a Sunday Silence-Easy Goer or Affirmed-Alydar-like finish in this one, but maybe there is a surprise or two awaiting if it breaks bad.

Let’s get to it:

#4 Nyquist….The heavyweight champ is 6 for 6 lifetime with Mohaymen 5 out of 5, so, unless there is a dead heat for win, someone will give. This son of Uncle Mo (6/5 on the ML) is about as good as they get for fans of the sport and if he wins, the talk of a repeat Triple Crown winner will begin. He’s beaten the best in the west; Swipe, Exaggerator, Brody’s Cause among them, perhaps, none as good as Moy Boy. Lest we forget that trainer O’Neill and jock Mario Gutierrez have sung this song before with I’ll Have Another. Despite having a tad or two of trouble in about half his races, of Nyquist’s 6 wins, five are graded stakes, including 3 GI victories increasing his speed number in each of his last four races. Note: 47 day layoff, but very steady work pattern. Look for him to take his customary position one or two  back before making a run for the lead with………….

#9 Mohaymen…….Baring down for the final rush, his style, and his on-form is nearly identical to Nyquist’s with their speed figures just nudging each other race to race. Notes: Jockey Junior Alvarado is hot right now with 17/5-2-0 (29%) here in recent weeks (4/3-1-0 in the last week) with trainer McLaughlin also at 29 percent wins in races third off layoff. This is Mohaymen’s first GI event with his 5 wins coming in relatively short fields against a bit of suspect competition. Even money on the ML and a 47 day layoff with a win at this distance.

I think it comes down to closing kick between the two with Mohaymen’s close record a smidgeon better—on paper—than Nyquist’s.

#3 Majesto……..Son of Tiznow could make some noise under the ride of Javier Castellano for OK conditioner Gustavo Delgado at 20-1 ML. While he’s never been in graded competition, Majetso’s speed figures are improving with each race (5/2-1-1). Javvy is 11/5-0-2 this past week. One to watch for a piece of change?

of change?

#7 Takeittotheedge…..Aside from the two giants, this guy, for me is the most intriguing horse in the field. Why? Well, he has just one race under his belt, but that was a more than solid wire-to-wire 7-1/2L win in his maiden with a 95 Brisnet (88 Beyer)speed number at 7 furlongs. I will assume the son of Broken Vow and a Gone West mare ($135K Keeneland seller), off his debut, looks like he can run a fir piece. Say what you want about Dale Romans, but I think the guy knows his stuff. My knock is that Dale loves to go fishing with 3-year olds and this ain’t Deadliest Catch! Also a puzzler is that Dale puts 9 percent winner Tyler Gaffalione on the mount (I guess Calvin Boral retired a day too early?). Not calling for the win, but if he gets out, this could get veryyyyyyyyy interesting for the two top guns.

#2 Fellowship……He’s earned classic underachiever status in his career, but the lad has two graded stakes races on the resume. Finished a bland 3^rd in the FOY to Mohaymen pressing the snooze button in the final furlong. This is his 11^th career race and fourth this year. At 15-1, he could get some, if the pace doesn’t blister. Steady J. Lezcano rides for local Stanley Gold.

My Picks:

Boy O Boy……I will give #9 Mohaymen the slimmest of edges for three reasons. 1) He knows and likes this track 2) He’s won at the distance in the Remsen 3) Junior is hot and the post might help him to stay out of the way of Takeittotheedge and Nyquist on his inside until he settles into position.

Make no mistake that NYQUIST is very, very good and I’d consider his losing an upset.

Not a very good betting race, but if you like to live on the edge, exacta box Nyquist and Mohaymen for larger or play them 4,9/4,9/all or 4,9/4,9/all/all and hope 50-1 or better comes in third & fourth……None of these bets my cup of oats.

 $5 tri wheel: 4, 9/4, 9/2,3, 7

$2 super wheel: 4,9/4,9/2,3, 7/1,2,3,7

The most interesting 1-lifetime race horse I've seen this year! GL.

did you get the snow this morning? Snowed here in squalls for 6 or 7 hours. Three days in a row that my son's HS baseball games have been cancelled.

No cakewalk for the Cubs and I, the biggest Cub fan in the universe, looks at the glass as being half-full.

I think surprise teams could be the Angels and Twins and never count out the Cardinals.

Last year of ball for my son, although he has a number of D2 and D3 college offers. He's serious about being a political journalist, so he is planning to go to Missouri, unless he gets a D-I offer to a school with a good J-program.

I will miss the baseball, but not the $1000s of costs and tons of travel all over the country for travel team.

GL in Vegas. Enjoy warm weather because we're not going to get it anytime soon!