Florida Derby Analysis and Picks

Gulfstream Park, 1-1/8 Miles, dirt, $1 million, Grade I

BULLETIN from GP’s website: As anticipated, BATTALION RUNNER SCRATCHED—REASON unavailable.

What a nice day of racing for those of us who love the Triple Crown season. It don’t get any better than the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby—all wrapped up in one pretty package.

Let’s start in Hallandale for a race that promises excitement and major clues to who could be standing in the winner’s Circle on May 6.

Look at the morning line odds…box cars…. because of well-backed Gunnevera (9-5) and Pletcher’s electric Battalion Runner (3-1) –now scratched--and Always Dreaming holding up the front end. However, study a possible double-digit winner and look closely for those who will be scrumptious underlays.

Tactically, this is a totally different race without Battalion Runner…..

#11 Gunnevera…….He has it all. Calculated pace. Tactics. Smarts, for a 3-year old during the maturation process, and a closing kick that reminds me of one of my all-time favorites, Real Quiet. He hit a career high 97 Beyer in the contentious Fountain of Youth closing like a freight train from 9 back in mid race. He’s got a lethal combo in jockey Castellano and trainer Antonio Sano (Who?). Sano is a guy who has taken advantage of a once in a lifetime chance at the glory, and he is making the most of it. Just 10% wins this year, Sano has this son of Dialed In (Mineshaft) and an Unbridled mare on-game with a career mark of 8/4-2-0 and nearly $1.1 million in purses. The colt is 5/2-2-0 at GP with trainer-jock batting 27% wins in 15 races. While there is a tad of concern out of the post, I like the stretch to 1-1/8 for him, especially with the likelihood of the would-be’s flaming out late and this guy closing hard. Castellano won this with Todd’s Constitution in 2014. Gunnevera’s daddy won this race in 2011 and his mom’s dad won in 1990. He has a lot of things in his favor today and, without a doubt, the one to beat. While I am not ready to make him my Derby pick, he has the look and feel of a horse that can win the Kentucky Derby.

#9 Battalion Runner {SCRATCHED}…..However, this is what I wrote before it was offiical. ALONG WITH Always Dreaming, this is the third week in a row that Pletcher has run lightly raced, non-graded stakes runners, like Melagacy and Benson. Todd’s little boy, it seems like the whole racing world has been waiting for Battalion Runner to run for real money and against real competition. Be careful for what you wish for? Impeccable breeding (Unbridled’s Song and a Tapit mare; $700K Keeneland sale), he’s 3/2-1-0 and has registered a 98 Beyer, the best-of-race today. He’s won two in a row and, from the take away in his last race, it looks like he can go well at 1-1/8 miles. He will probably have #4 Always Dreaming a head ahead at his left with the temptation to match race with Dreamer, #9 Three Rules and some cheap speed. Todd puts on his top pilot and the one who has guided BR since the beginning, Johnny V. Velazquez has won this race a record tying three times. The colt, 3-1 ML today, has it all going for him today, except graded stakes experience, but with Todd doing the engineering, I pretty much don’t worry about stuff like that. I couldn’t say that about most trainers.

#4 Always Dreaming….If not for Battalion Runner, perhaps there might be more buzz about this boy, a $350K Keeneland. Out of Bodemeister, you know he can sprint at least through 1-1/8 miles. Superior turf on the bottom, maybe we’ll see him at a mile of less on grass in the future if the 3-year old dirt gig doesn’t work out. Fast, but not consistently fast, his Beyer’s are real teasers. From race one forward: 59, 81, 88, and 71. Due for improvement, however, I don’t see him taking the lead and holding it with other speed parallel to him. But if the testosterone kicks in, you can see the potential of his going over 90 Beyer, which should put him in contention near the end. For sure Johnny V will ride with BR out. Career 4/2-1-1, the colt has won two in a row. As I said, Velazquez has won this race a record tying three times. Better yet, he has won the last two of Always Dreaming’s races. A somewhat could-be for all with a trip with a piece more likely.

#10 Three Rules….He’s a good one, but has suffered from a bit of tight sphyncteritis finishing behind (pun intended) the winners in his three graded stakes races. However, he’s lost to Gunnevera in the FOY, third place, 6-1/4 back, to Favorable Outcome in the Swale (2^nd place; ¾ back) and posted a miserable 14+L debacle in the BC Juve to Classic Empire. Could be more of the same today. He’s thrown some nice Beyer’s, including an 87 in the FOY and 94 in the Swale, but even when he reeled off wins in his first five career races, he just once hit a 92 with the other four in the mid-70s. That ain’t going to get it done with Gunnevera bulldozing his way in the final furlong. Blinkers off and, with his style, he should get out and contend early. If he holds speed, we could see the upset at a healthy 8-1 ML. Saez, his FOY pilot, rides for Jose Pinchon with the two just 7% wins together.

 #1 State of Honor….A legit upset candidate for trainer Mark Casse, who seems to have about 20 horses on the Derby trail, he is the lone horse with a 1-1/8 m race under his belt finishing second at WO at age two. He has been getting out fast and going to or near the lead. I have to think that for him to win this race, the To Honor and Serve colt will need to run a few behind the leaders, as he did in the Macho Man at GP, his three-year old debut, last January. With Battlaion Runner out, this approach makes more sense to me that running with the cheapies and having Gunnevera ruin his day. In that one, he held 6^th before gunning to the lead, only to get beaten near the wire by a head. Frenchman #1, Leparoux, is smarter than that, so if they choose to hang back, he’ll be one-eyeing Gunnevera with every step in the last half-mile. With the right tactics,  he could be in for a big day, so take a very close look. Hood off. Leparoux won this on Dialed In. Second place finish in TB Derby and third in the Sam Davis.

#2 Talk Logistics….I will take a shot under with 30-1 ML Talk Logistics only because he has one of the sharpest locals you’ll find in trainer Eddie Plesa doing the mentoring. The lad has finished fourth in each of his last two, by a combined 26+ lengths. Plesa knows better and I like the way he has been eased in here. I've chosen to believe that Talk Logistics can hang around long enough to pass dead ones as Gunnevera runs by him, but allowing this son of High Cotton to gather a few pieces of change.

My picks:

#11 Gunnevera…class is dripping and I see no one else stepin’ up.

$12 exacta: 11/1

$4 exacta: 11/4, 10

$3 tri: 11/1, 4, 10/1, 2, 4, 10

Howz and Phil....key points. I am too concerned about Gunnevera taking a stroll, but I look at the trainer and keep thinking that thi is his one shot and that he plans to go all out.

YES on chalk. One note, I make picks mostly to satisfy my handicapping self-esteem, but I mostly enjoy the analysis. I am thinking about not posting picks, just doing analysis.

Quote Originally Posted by Rob2772:

I like the 1 and 7

Will be boxing the 1,7,4

 GL Mikey,  

yep....al of theml with a good shot

finishes 4-1-11-8

Gunnevera did not look good on the track coming out. They talked about his losing weight and appearing a bit drab. sure looked like it today.

Great runs by Always Dreaming and State of Honor

After Gunnevera's run today, I am not sure. I need to see how he came out of the race, but next weekend with the Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby and Wood, we will see who emerges.