15/1 ml (all Meydan ml are from Formulator fyi and I know the actual odds depend on what pool you are swimming in). pattern, late speed, recency, stamina. extremely wide open big juicy field size here going about 6F on a straightaway on Tapeta synth. i know his last was in a turd race with only three horses but he won easily, on a synthetic surface, and he carried 141 pounds. nice little tuneup and 2nd off the bench here. like his improvement last year and his versatility. two strong wins going about 7/8ths on the lawn one of which was a G1 at Longchamp. a few solid moves going 6F on straightaway courses. two back he only lost by two and change in the G1 Hong Kong Mile going a full mile on turf. he was 80/1 on the tote there which should tell you how tough the field was. should have plenty of gas late given his strong performances at 7F and 8F if/when this race falls apart due to a pace battle up front. he's improving and very aggressively spotted here and quite versatile and I will give him a shot at what should be a juicy price. 0.60 units.
Meydan races will be modest in unit size due to large field sizes, turf and Tapeta, and talented runners coming in from all over the world. i'll keep it modest.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
meydan race 6
2 WP
15/1 ml (all Meydan ml are from Formulator fyi and I know the actual odds depend on what pool you are swimming in). pattern, late speed, recency, stamina. extremely wide open big juicy field size here going about 6F on a straightaway on Tapeta synth. i know his last was in a turd race with only three horses but he won easily, on a synthetic surface, and he carried 141 pounds. nice little tuneup and 2nd off the bench here. like his improvement last year and his versatility. two strong wins going about 7/8ths on the lawn one of which was a G1 at Longchamp. a few solid moves going 6F on straightaway courses. two back he only lost by two and change in the G1 Hong Kong Mile going a full mile on turf. he was 80/1 on the tote there which should tell you how tough the field was. should have plenty of gas late given his strong performances at 7F and 8F if/when this race falls apart due to a pace battle up front. he's improving and very aggressively spotted here and quite versatile and I will give him a shot at what should be a juicy price. 0.60 units.
Meydan races will be modest in unit size due to large field sizes, turf and Tapeta, and talented runners coming in from all over the world. i'll keep it modest.
15/1 ml. distance, pattern, pace. taking another swing for the fences here. warning: this is a gal taking on almost all males in a fourteen horse field. been shooting for the stars with this miss she beat the gals in a G1 at Newmarket on a straightaway (this is a one turn 9F race) and just missed against males in a G1 at HK going about 10F. she is pretty consistent though (6/9 in the exacta) and many of these are iffy, sporadic, and older and therefore not as likely to improve in my view. has a couple strong runs going beyond 9F on turf and handles soft and firm ground. looking for the cutback in distance to help her. this is a bomb keep that in mind. huge field of almost all males. several smaller layoffs and she has fired fresh before (pattern). hoping her break since December 9th helped her and she comes out firing big. 0.60 units.
0
meydan race 7
9 WP
15/1 ml. distance, pattern, pace. taking another swing for the fences here. warning: this is a gal taking on almost all males in a fourteen horse field. been shooting for the stars with this miss she beat the gals in a G1 at Newmarket on a straightaway (this is a one turn 9F race) and just missed against males in a G1 at HK going about 10F. she is pretty consistent though (6/9 in the exacta) and many of these are iffy, sporadic, and older and therefore not as likely to improve in my view. has a couple strong runs going beyond 9F on turf and handles soft and firm ground. looking for the cutback in distance to help her. this is a bomb keep that in mind. huge field of almost all males. several smaller layoffs and she has fired fresh before (pattern). hoping her break since December 9th helped her and she comes out firing big. 0.60 units.
meydan race 8 - leaning towards passing. i expect the 8 horse this freak filly from Japan to be maybe 7/5ish. would love to beat her but she is very consistent. i think she's beatable but I do expect her to run well and fire. most of the others are very, very inconsistent and unreliable. a couple are in way over their head. the 11 is tempting at 12/1ish but he seems to back down when he steps up in class so can i trust him??? might just pass we'll see how I feel tomorrow.
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meydan race 8 - leaning towards passing. i expect the 8 horse this freak filly from Japan to be maybe 7/5ish. would love to beat her but she is very consistent. i think she's beatable but I do expect her to run well and fire. most of the others are very, very inconsistent and unreliable. a couple are in way over their head. the 11 is tempting at 12/1ish but he seems to back down when he steps up in class so can i trust him??? might just pass we'll see how I feel tomorrow.
30/1 ml. pattern, surface, distance, stamina. not convinced this is all about the "obvious" horses. this tapeta can make things very wide open especially going ten panels. lots of layoffs for this prick but here he is 2nd off a little tuneup going 10F on synthetic left handed. yeah i know he faced a bunch of lollipops but like how he got that race in and then goes right here where he ran a solid 3rd last year. when he fires he can run a bit and can get this distance and show the needed stamina. tried So You Think and Frankel last year and got blasted by both. bombs away i'll try him with that prep race under his belt and about 6 weeks since that one. i don't play jocks but a nice jock change to R Moore. 0.60 units.
0
meydan race 9
7 WP
30/1 ml. pattern, surface, distance, stamina. not convinced this is all about the "obvious" horses. this tapeta can make things very wide open especially going ten panels. lots of layoffs for this prick but here he is 2nd off a little tuneup going 10F on synthetic left handed. yeah i know he faced a bunch of lollipops but like how he got that race in and then goes right here where he ran a solid 3rd last year. when he fires he can run a bit and can get this distance and show the needed stamina. tried So You Think and Frankel last year and got blasted by both. bombs away i'll try him with that prep race under his belt and about 6 weeks since that one. i don't play jocks but a nice jock change to R Moore. 0.60 units.
I am looking at a couple of Horses at the Florida Derby tomorrow. Here is what I have come up with....
Race #2: 4-3-5
Race #4: 1-3-4
Race#6: 4-7-6
Race#7: 8 to WPS
Race #8: 6-3-5
Race #10: 9 to WPS
Race #12: 6-1-3-5 (with side bets on the 3 and 5 and 1)
Would like your feedback and what you think.
Still capping GP. Need more time.
In race 2 i can say I am not on the 4 or the 3 and both will be the favs. don't like how the 4 came off the bench fell apart late. 3 has been run into submission a little bit. i'm not convinced he is nice and fresh but if he runs his best he'll be tough.
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Quote Originally Posted by b18swim:
Atlasshrugged,
I am looking at a couple of Horses at the Florida Derby tomorrow. Here is what I have come up with....
Race #2: 4-3-5
Race #4: 1-3-4
Race#6: 4-7-6
Race#7: 8 to WPS
Race #8: 6-3-5
Race #10: 9 to WPS
Race #12: 6-1-3-5 (with side bets on the 3 and 5 and 1)
Would like your feedback and what you think.
Still capping GP. Need more time.
In race 2 i can say I am not on the 4 or the 3 and both will be the favs. don't like how the 4 came off the bench fell apart late. 3 has been run into submission a little bit. i'm not convinced he is nice and fresh but if he runs his best he'll be tough.
In race 2 i can say I am not on the 4 or the 3 and both will be the favs. don't like how the 4 came off the bench fell apart late. 3 has been run into submission a little bit. i'm not convinced he is nice and fresh but if he runs his best he'll be tough.
race 4 - 1 and 3 obvious favs. small field. 1 really woke up going back to dirt she could be very tough and also 3/5 for pletcher/velazquez. prolly a race I pass.
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
Still capping GP. Need more time.
In race 2 i can say I am not on the 4 or the 3 and both will be the favs. don't like how the 4 came off the bench fell apart late. 3 has been run into submission a little bit. i'm not convinced he is nice and fresh but if he runs his best he'll be tough.
race 4 - 1 and 3 obvious favs. small field. 1 really woke up going back to dirt she could be very tough and also 3/5 for pletcher/velazquez. prolly a race I pass.
I am looking at a couple of Horses at the Florida Derby tomorrow. Here is what I have come up with....
Race #2: 4-3-5
Race #4: 1-3-4
Race#6: 4-7-6
Race#7: 8 to WPS
Race #8: 6-3-5
Race #10: 9 to WPS
Race #12: 6-1-3-5 (with side bets on the 3 and 5 and 1)
Would like your feedback and what you think.
race 7 - i agree with you on the 8 though pletcher's horse will be tough. like the 8 based on late speed, recency, pattern, distance, stamina. should fire. looks fit and ready. looks like he woke up at the half mile in his debut and gets more ground tomorrow.
but . . . . . he's gonna get bet just a matter of how much. so i'll watch and decide from there.
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Quote Originally Posted by b18swim:
Atlasshrugged,
I am looking at a couple of Horses at the Florida Derby tomorrow. Here is what I have come up with....
Race #2: 4-3-5
Race #4: 1-3-4
Race#6: 4-7-6
Race#7: 8 to WPS
Race #8: 6-3-5
Race #10: 9 to WPS
Race #12: 6-1-3-5 (with side bets on the 3 and 5 and 1)
Would like your feedback and what you think.
race 7 - i agree with you on the 8 though pletcher's horse will be tough. like the 8 based on late speed, recency, pattern, distance, stamina. should fire. looks fit and ready. looks like he woke up at the half mile in his debut and gets more ground tomorrow.
but . . . . . he's gonna get bet just a matter of how much. so i'll watch and decide from there.
Here's how I will approach The Great Race Place today so hopefully making myself read it will keep me disciplined. Really not a good card in Arcadia which is expected they are looking to unleash a great card next week for the SA Derby:
race 1 - likely a pass for me. i'm sure they will drool over the 1 and bet him like he's gonna run like Ghostzapper did in his debut but he's on the rail and been up north all along. maybe he's good enough and this field sucks. i'll watch the tote on the 2. prolly has fitness edge but numbers 2nd out and turf/dirt are pretty modest.
race 2 - definitely playable.
race 3 - the exact type of race I need to pass 99% of the time. don't trust any of these stiffs. gun to my head the 4 at least does not look like damaged goods and does try but he'll get slammed to 7/5.
race 4 - pass.
race 5 - playable. lots of firsters and down the hill open company MSW but playable for me.
race 6 - if Baffert's horse the 2 stays in this is a pass for me in all likelihood. she might be 2/5 on the board. IF she fires again she'll win by ten. no pace in here besides her. beat open company in debut very easily and now against basically a statebred allowance field. just looks simply much faster IF she fires. working up a storm. i'll watch.
race 7 - playable for me. highest quality race on the card.
race 8 - playable.
race 9 - pass.
0
Here's how I will approach The Great Race Place today so hopefully making myself read it will keep me disciplined. Really not a good card in Arcadia which is expected they are looking to unleash a great card next week for the SA Derby:
race 1 - likely a pass for me. i'm sure they will drool over the 1 and bet him like he's gonna run like Ghostzapper did in his debut but he's on the rail and been up north all along. maybe he's good enough and this field sucks. i'll watch the tote on the 2. prolly has fitness edge but numbers 2nd out and turf/dirt are pretty modest.
race 2 - definitely playable.
race 3 - the exact type of race I need to pass 99% of the time. don't trust any of these stiffs. gun to my head the 4 at least does not look like damaged goods and does try but he'll get slammed to 7/5.
race 4 - pass.
race 5 - playable. lots of firsters and down the hill open company MSW but playable for me.
race 6 - if Baffert's horse the 2 stays in this is a pass for me in all likelihood. she might be 2/5 on the board. IF she fires again she'll win by ten. no pace in here besides her. beat open company in debut very easily and now against basically a statebred allowance field. just looks simply much faster IF she fires. working up a storm. i'll watch.
race 7 - playable for me. highest quality race on the card.
12/1 ml. recency, distance, pattern, stamina. the 6 is obviously the horse to beat here and I am taking a shot keep that in mind. like this pattern a bit here. debut was going 5/8ths, chilly on the tote, and he didn't do squat ("fractious, poor start"). in his 2nd spin he woke up big time going around two turns and gutted out a win. 2nd time routing today for solid trainer on the lawn and blood supports going longer which he does here today by a 1/6th. also like the 5 week break before this race to let him settle down a little after that blanket finish. NEEDS TO IMPROVE to win this no doubt about that. two decent drills since his last I am projecting he may take another step forward with the light bulb flicking on last out. aside from the 6 the chalk and the 1 the others don't show much punch late. 0.75 units.
0
gulfstream 1
4 WP
12/1 ml. recency, distance, pattern, stamina. the 6 is obviously the horse to beat here and I am taking a shot keep that in mind. like this pattern a bit here. debut was going 5/8ths, chilly on the tote, and he didn't do squat ("fractious, poor start"). in his 2nd spin he woke up big time going around two turns and gutted out a win. 2nd time routing today for solid trainer on the lawn and blood supports going longer which he does here today by a 1/6th. also like the 5 week break before this race to let him settle down a little after that blanket finish. NEEDS TO IMPROVE to win this no doubt about that. two decent drills since his last I am projecting he may take another step forward with the light bulb flicking on last out. aside from the 6 the chalk and the 1 the others don't show much punch late. 0.75 units.
6/1 ml. late speed, recency, pattern, distance, stamina. i am anticipating a pace battle here and this is 6.5F which in my view can be a grind. i also expect four other horses to get bet more than this 6. like this pattern showing very strong improvement here and making his 2nd start of the year as a young 4YO. like how he ran very well in his last three on three different tracks. he should be bringing it late here with a big move but the big risk is that the jock waits too long. needs to move soon enough and mow down those horses beating the piss out of each other up front. also like the three drills since his last he looks fit and ready. also like moving up in class and to the big leagues at Gulfstream while some others are dropping yet again. 0.75 units.
0
gulfstream 2
6 WP
6/1 ml. late speed, recency, pattern, distance, stamina. i am anticipating a pace battle here and this is 6.5F which in my view can be a grind. i also expect four other horses to get bet more than this 6. like this pattern showing very strong improvement here and making his 2nd start of the year as a young 4YO. like how he ran very well in his last three on three different tracks. he should be bringing it late here with a big move but the big risk is that the jock waits too long. needs to move soon enough and mow down those horses beating the piss out of each other up front. also like the three drills since his last he looks fit and ready. also like moving up in class and to the big leagues at Gulfstream while some others are dropping yet again. 0.75 units.
15/1 ml (all Meydan ml are from Formulator fyi and I know the actual odds depend on what pool you are swimming in). pattern, late speed, recency, stamina. extremely wide open big juicy field size here going about 6F on a straightaway on Tapeta synth. i know his last was in a turd race with only three horses but he won easily, on a synthetic surface, and he carried 141 pounds. nice little tuneup and 2nd off the bench here. like his improvement last year and his versatility. two strong wins going about 7/8ths on the lawn one of which was a G1 at Longchamp. a few solid moves going 6F on straightaway courses. two back he only lost by two and change in the G1 Hong Kong Mile going a full mile on turf. he was 80/1 on the tote there which should tell you how tough the field was. should have plenty of gas late given his strong performances at 7F and 8F if/when this race falls apart due to a pace battle up front. he's improving and very aggressively spotted here and quite versatile and I will give him a shot at what should be a juicy price. 0.60 units.
Meydan races will be modest in unit size due to large field sizes, turf and Tapeta, and talented runners coming in from all over the world. i'll keep it modest.
5th. didn't fire.
0
Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
meydan race 6
2 WP
15/1 ml (all Meydan ml are from Formulator fyi and I know the actual odds depend on what pool you are swimming in). pattern, late speed, recency, stamina. extremely wide open big juicy field size here going about 6F on a straightaway on Tapeta synth. i know his last was in a turd race with only three horses but he won easily, on a synthetic surface, and he carried 141 pounds. nice little tuneup and 2nd off the bench here. like his improvement last year and his versatility. two strong wins going about 7/8ths on the lawn one of which was a G1 at Longchamp. a few solid moves going 6F on straightaway courses. two back he only lost by two and change in the G1 Hong Kong Mile going a full mile on turf. he was 80/1 on the tote there which should tell you how tough the field was. should have plenty of gas late given his strong performances at 7F and 8F if/when this race falls apart due to a pace battle up front. he's improving and very aggressively spotted here and quite versatile and I will give him a shot at what should be a juicy price. 0.60 units.
Meydan races will be modest in unit size due to large field sizes, turf and Tapeta, and talented runners coming in from all over the world. i'll keep it modest.
15/1 ml. distance, pattern, pace. taking another swing for the fences here. warning: this is a gal taking on almost all males in a fourteen horse field. been shooting for the stars with this miss she beat the gals in a G1 at Newmarket on a straightaway (this is a one turn 9F race) and just missed against males in a G1 at HK going about 10F. she is pretty consistent though (6/9 in the exacta) and many of these are iffy, sporadic, and older and therefore not as likely to improve in my view. has a couple strong runs going beyond 9F on turf and handles soft and firm ground. looking for the cutback in distance to help her. this is a bomb keep that in mind. huge field of almost all males. several smaller layoffs and she has fired fresh before (pattern). hoping her break since December 9th helped her and she comes out firing big. 0.60 units.
3rd at 12/1. ran well. winner slipped away late.
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
meydan race 7
9 WP
15/1 ml. distance, pattern, pace. taking another swing for the fences here. warning: this is a gal taking on almost all males in a fourteen horse field. been shooting for the stars with this miss she beat the gals in a G1 at Newmarket on a straightaway (this is a one turn 9F race) and just missed against males in a G1 at HK going about 10F. she is pretty consistent though (6/9 in the exacta) and many of these are iffy, sporadic, and older and therefore not as likely to improve in my view. has a couple strong runs going beyond 9F on turf and handles soft and firm ground. looking for the cutback in distance to help her. this is a bomb keep that in mind. huge field of almost all males. several smaller layoffs and she has fired fresh before (pattern). hoping her break since December 9th helped her and she comes out firing big. 0.60 units.
12/1 ml. recency, distance, pattern, stamina. the 6 is obviously the horse to beat here and I am taking a shot keep that in mind. like this pattern a bit here. debut was going 5/8ths, chilly on the tote, and he didn't do squat ("fractious, poor start"). in his 2nd spin he woke up big time going around two turns and gutted out a win. 2nd time routing today for solid trainer on the lawn and blood supports going longer which he does here today by a 1/6th. also like the 5 week break before this race to let him settle down a little after that blanket finish. NEEDS TO IMPROVE to win this no doubt about that. two decent drills since his last I am projecting he may take another step forward with the light bulb flicking on last out. aside from the 6 the chalk and the 1 the others don't show much punch late. 0.75 units.
nope. chalk won.
0
Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
gulfstream 1
4 WP
12/1 ml. recency, distance, pattern, stamina. the 6 is obviously the horse to beat here and I am taking a shot keep that in mind. like this pattern a bit here. debut was going 5/8ths, chilly on the tote, and he didn't do squat ("fractious, poor start"). in his 2nd spin he woke up big time going around two turns and gutted out a win. 2nd time routing today for solid trainer on the lawn and blood supports going longer which he does here today by a 1/6th. also like the 5 week break before this race to let him settle down a little after that blanket finish. NEEDS TO IMPROVE to win this no doubt about that. two decent drills since his last I am projecting he may take another step forward with the light bulb flicking on last out. aside from the 6 the chalk and the 1 the others don't show much punch late. 0.75 units.
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