Kentucky Derby 148 Analysis

Another year, another exciting week for those of us who love the Sport of Kings. (Do they still call it Sport of Kings?) Every capper here, and you’re all good ones, know this race is far from a slam dunk. Of course, no Derby is a swish, but this one seems to be a bit more slam dunkerish. Let’s go!

(In order of PP)

• Mo Donegal…..Here is where I start to pull out my hair, one strand at a time, a horse that, just two days ago, I totally dismissed. Why? Slow get-out in Holy Bull that cost him. Won Remsen, but arguably could have been DQ’d for bumpage. Rosario off of him after a great Wood ride. Wood has not recently produced horses of consequence. Vanilla workouts. One hole is deadly in the Derby, etc. etc. However, after analyzing (note: different than handicapping), I’ve warmed to horses coming from behind in this race. So much speed that I must look at the stalker-closers. Make no mistake. Mo will be coming from behind. Since they’ve gone to one gate, which now positions horses placed inside farther away from the rail, I’m not as fearful of the post ala. Lookin’ At Lucky, who almost got pin-balled to death in his Derby out of No.1. He gets Irad Ortiz in the saddle, a trade I’ll make all day for Rosario (note: I love Rosario). Mo's Wood was magnificent and, even though he wasn’t behind great pace, he closed like they were 5 lengths ahead. He’s beaten likely fave Zandan, as well as solids Early Voting and Midnight Chrome. Lost in Bull to White Abarria and Simplification, off by “just” 4-1/2L after early trouble. I like his chances at the distance. In a field that could be an I-95 pile-up at some point, this guy could sneak through.

• Happy Jack…..Having lost his last three races by a combined 50L+ doesn’t make a Happy Jack. However, he did finish third in the SA Derby to Taiba and Messier. He’s out of Oxbow and a Tapit mare and has Derby winner Bejarano aboard for Derby winner O’Neill. Actually might be on the improve. Probably goes off at 60-1, so throw $2 across and hope that a $6 bet allows the racing gods to bless you.
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@mikeyp1

 3) Epicenter……..I am very proud to say that I once co-owned the Epicenter dam, Silent Candy, a great Candy Ride mare who won for us. This guy is a tough one to read. Needs to come off the inside to get into position with 7 or 8 who will be vying with him for position. While, over the last 10 years Derby trends have been falling, two things to consider. First of all, only two horses out of the Louisiana Derby have won this race since 1924, Grindstone the last one in 1996 (although I will argue that Cavonnier won the race in a photo). Second thing, maybe not a big issue because it seems counterintuitive, no January foal has won the Derby in at least 25 years. About 60% of Derby winners foal in February and March. He gets Rosario, who will need the hands of a surgeon to maneuver the boy. Working well. Breeding shows he is versatile and can go the distance. DRF says, “the one to beat.” Could be…..

 4) Summer Is Tomorrow…..Easy to dismiss this guy, who comes from modest breeding and out of the UAE graveyard for Derby horses. However, watch his last race. He was run down by Crown Pride, but, man, did he look good losing. Blasts out of the gate and my pick to take the early lead It will take a Spend A Buck effort to win on the front end. Another going off at 50-1 or better. Some might be wise to include in wheels. Ya’ never know.

 5) Smile Happy…..Pooh poohed by some who had great hopes after wins in his first two races at age two. But, finishing second to Zandon (Risen Star) and Epicenter (Bluegrass) at age 3 is nothing to be ashamed. Another who will need to figure out position early, but pilot Lanerie is a decent navigator. I think he can get the distance, but will need some racing luck as they scrum. Is he improving? I think so and will include under. I rarely dismiss Kenny McPeek’s training skills in a crunch.

@mikeyp1

 6) Messier…..Here’s where the water gets deep. One of a handful with 100+ Beyer (103), this Ontario-bred colt out of the great Empire Maker (and a Smart Strike mare) has been excellent despite being slammed by Taiba last out in the SA Derby. Not the speed of speed, but he will certainly take up the second tier needing to keep pace before the leader(s) fall back. Johnny V just might work him the way he did with Medina Spirit last year by threading the needle in the last quarter, but there is a lot more speed to contend with here, and compared to other races Messier has won. I think he’s a must-include, but might be a bit short to win. Your call!

 7) Crown Pride……Japanese home-based and bred, if I hear one more word about the “great” Japanese breeding program, I might puke. No doubt Japanese-breds have improved, as evidenced by last year’s Breeders Cup success. But, they ain’t Kentucky and this is the Kentucky Derby, not the Mochinoki Sho! Brilliant in the Mayden UAE (note: 1-3/16 miles) running down Summer Is Tomorrow, you might think he has a better chance in the Preakness. The darling of morning clocker’s this week, his work has been boffo. Keep in mind that the best a horse coming from UAE has done in the Derby is a fifth place finish by Master of Foxhounds. I think Crown is a better horse and has a chance for some, if not a surprising upset. Jockey Lemaire is a pretty good knocker. The Frenchman was great in Europe before heading to Japan. He’s worn the Japanese riding belt every year since 2017. Note: Andy Beyer says Crown’s Maydan race translated to a 93 Beyer. Forget him if it’s wet. Take a look-see.

 8) Charge It…….Might be the most improved, if not most recently matured horse in the field off his first stakes. He was my early tout, but then I realized that the colt might suffer from the “Curse of Apollo.” No unraced two-year old won the Derby between 1882, when Apollo won, and 2018 when Justify won. However, given that Baffert was Justify’s trainer….I’ll let you finish the sentence. As green as asparagus in the FLA Derby, he got the Yips, losing interest early, then lugging, yet managed to finish second to White Abarria by just 1-1/4L. Tapit and I’ll Take Charge (Indian Charlie), Pletcher and Luis Saez, who rode DQ’d Maximum Security, is an “A” team. Excellent work for this and I will include under.

@mikeyp1

 9) Tiz the Bomb…….A winner of over $1 million with 5 career wins, so why is he 30-1 on the ML? After winning his maiden in dirt, he took to the dirt surface in the Holy Bull as if it was broken glass. Clearly a future on turf and synth, but I just don’t think he’s got it for this. However, veteran jock Brian Hernandez and trainer McPeek are sharpies and could make things interesting.

10) Zandon…..Odds maker Mike Battaglia installed this guy at 3-1 favoritism. Deserved? I don’t know, but I will guess that he goes off at 5-1 or better as money goes toward others. His Blue Grass win was outstanding and he fits the profile of a closer. The boy has some trouble getting out of the gate, but Pratt and Brown (31% wins) know this. I’ll guess he’s been schooled since his last race and, out of post 10, I think he settles securely behind the pack. Not sure he can make it if he gets stuck in 17, 18 or 19 positions for a spell, but keep him in the low to mid-teens, and he’ll be OK. His Beyer’s have improved each time out hitting a 98 last out knocking on the door of 100+. Note: Prat rode 65-1 Country House to a DQ’d win in 2019.

 11) Pioneer of Medina……Reeled off two in a row at FG before being beaten in both the LA Derby and Risen Star losing to Epicenter both times. Son of Pioneer of the Nile, pappy of American Pharoah, and an Eskendereya mare, trained by Pletch and ridden by “California” Joe Bravo, the blinkers are off. Could be a brilliant move. Lifetime high 96 Beyer in the LA Derby with improvement in every race. I am including this guy on my tickets, as no blinks tells me that tactics will change, perhaps sitting second or even third tier, then going for pounce.

@mikeyp1

@mikeyp1

12) Taiba……For those of you backing the son of the flavorful Gun Runner, do yourself a favor and go to drf.com to watch the Jay Privman-Andy Beyer webinar. Andy’s comments about Taiba are stunning! He argues that the horse has no business being in this race based on just two lifetime races going in. He said Taiba should not have been in the SA Derby with just one race under his belt. Counter argument is that the horse won the SA Derby with a smash and grab finish. But that was in a 6 horse field on a day when Messier looked like he didn’t know what hit him after he was passed. Is he still greenish? Let me go back to tradition. Derby is his third start. No horse has won in his third start since 1883! Then, there is more incentive here. A win by jockey Mike Smith would make him the oldest jock to win a Derby at age 56. In addition, a win would establish Tim Yakteen as part of racing’s new elite. No matter, he must get consideration.

13) Simplification…..A breath-taker when I saw his FOY. Breeding brother to Epicenter (same sire and same “grandmother”), he’s been right from the start at 7/3-2-1 career. I think he can run near the lead, or come from behind, but will he have the stamina to stay at the pace and distance? 20-1 on the ML is something I wouldn’t have predicted in early March, so ponder. Jose Ortiz and Antonio Sano combine for 21% wins. He can run with most of these.

14) Barber Road…..This is one of the real wild cards for a slice. Always shows up (8/2-4-1). He closes, so if he picks off dead ones at the end, you’re looking at a nice show price and uber-under for super and tri. Trainer Ortiz and jockey Gutierrez are 20% win combo. Horse is 2/1-1-0 at Churchill.

15) White Abarria…...Oh boy. I’m conflicted being this-close to picking him to win, but a tad nnnnnervous. He’s won 4 of his 5 races, but his style is to stay out of trouble, not easy in a 20 horse field, although he’s been in at least 3 races with 11 horses, more than most here. I like the post for getting in position and for avoiding harm. Colt started to drift a bit in FLA Derby, but when he gets clear, as he might do here in the last quarter, he goes and goes. Jockey Gaffalione has done right by winning both of his races on the animal. Some say the trainer, Saffe Joseph, is unknown, and maybe he is unknown outside of Florida. However, the guy was leading trainer at the Gulfstream meet, and that means something. A must look for win.

@mikeyp1

 16) Cyberknife…….Another one with which I have connected in the past 24 hours. Knock is that the Arkansas Derby was a ho-hum affair with a slew of mediocre horses. Could be, but this son of a Gun Runner keeps getting better and better. He has won at three different tracks, including Churchill and, to me, has the stalking style that can win this race. Jockey Geroux, who saddled Gun runner during his hey-day, isn’t satisfied that he backed in for a Derby win on Mandaloun. Trainer Cox keeps on rolling. “They” keep asking if the horse can handle a crowd of 150,000 in L’vlle. I ask, is there a difference on race day of 150,000 and 60,000 who attended the Ark Derby? Me likey a lot.

17) Classic Causeway……Here’s a guy who was 5/3-1-1, then ran a clunker in the FLA Derby. Trainer thinks he had pallet problems, so I think they will be tongue-tying him, which should help. I just don’t see it, not because he doesn’t have talent. He isn’t fast enough. He could be in it early, but I will pass.

18) Tawny Port……We haven’t heard a lot about “wiseguy” horses, but if I had to pick one, this is it. A lot of similarities between this son of Pioneer of the Nile and Derby winner Charismatic, including Lexington win. Making his third start in five weeks, but trainer Cox knows his business. Not a real speedster, but he could be coming at the end. Beware for a possible taste.

 19) Zozos…..Another Brad Cox charge’, I was all over this one earlier, but have cooled a bit. That said, he will be an include for me. Excellent chance to close big for Franco, who handles the chores. He is improving and could be a big surprise at a juicy 20-1, which could float up, if the crowd jumps all over a few of the likely contenders.

 20 Rich Strike ……Just got in today as Ethereal Road scratched. He got points by finishing third in the Jeff Ruby, which is sort of like winning the drawing for a date with the high school prom queen. Not to be dismissive, but I’ll be dismissive. Kick me in the A$$, like Artie Fufkin, if this guy wins.

Good luck to all.

Is your pk the 16?

@Sulldog13

 I am going to take one last pass in tomorrow morning, but, right now, I like these three tiers: 15, 16/3,10/6,7,11,12,13, 18,19 .

I'll fine tune and I think looking at the weather might be a good idea as there could be a sloppy track.

Who do you like?

@mikeyp1

 Thank you, and good luck tomorrow.. I will be tailing..

Thank you for posting your thoughts on the big race. 

@mikeyp1

 Great write ups as of now im sitting w ..

16/ 1,3,6,8,10,12 and also 3/1,6,8,10,12,16 not final yet but really liking the exactas here however white abarrio is intriguing me as well

.. best of luck 

Going with Epicenter and White Abarrio as my top picks. I'm going to bed and hope I have a vision on 12 or 16.

Beautiful work 

Good to see ya Mike

Great write up and good luck tomorrow 

I’m on 6-10-1,gl all

Great write up

cant wait to hear his final picks

@Tygermyke

 Go gettem' Tyger!

@vetdrm

 Good luck Vet!!!!!

Looziana cartel's final box-3, 5,6, 10, 15, 16 tris and supers. A little from Mikey-a little from Vet and some Marie Laveau voodoo. I'm sure the 12 will sneer at me when he hits the board but you can't bet 'em all.  Good luck to all!

Good Luck Mikey,  

@Rob2772

 the best of luck to you!

@mikeyp1

 Good day, 

Have you posted your final betting wagers?

Great write-up !!!

@cdog8043

 Just posted my picks in a separate thread.