Kentucky Derby Day

Kentucky Derby Day

Playing deep and hoping for fast and firm. Looks like it may rain some but should stay on turf.   Bet $550 on Win bets and $486 on gimmicks but will add some more tri and super plays for derby if I can hit early on the card  Total bet for now $1,036

Race 1- #3 Cove Blue 6-1 ML cuts back to 7 furlongs off the GIII Gotham working well at CD for Romans. Should race up front and will be a fair price as Baffert running one. $25 Win #3 and $5 DD 2,3,4,5/2,7 Cost $40

Race 2- #7 Super Derecho 4-1 ML should be up from early and hopefully late in this pace less Allowance mile. Interesting that Casse runs #2 Summer Luck in here vs boys. $25 Win #7 and $25 ex box 2-7 Cost $50  Starting a pick 4 here also for $1   2,7/4/2,3,5/5,6,8,9  cost $24

Race 3- #4 Hollywood Handsome 3-1 ML is my best bet of the day and single in my gimmicks. Gets class relief after trying graded company last few. Should sit 3 early stalking some cheaper speed and get first run vs the closers which have some back class but closers like to get 2 and 3.. not win.  $50 Win #4 and starting a .50 pk 5  4/2,3,5/5,6,8,9/5,8/3,5,9,11  Cost $48

Race 4- #5 D Squared 8-1 ML  stretches out to a mile for turf debut for Casse by Speightstown so turf mile should be good. Big MSW field - he should be 8-1 or more   $25 Win #5  $5 ex box 2-3-5  Cost $30

Race 5- #9 Dazzling Gem 9/2 ML  should get a nice pace set up in this good looking group of AOC horses. Using some others in gimmicks also. $25 Win #9  $50.cent pk 4   5,6,8,9/5,8/3,5,9,11/3,5,7,10 Cost $64

Race 6- Humana Distaff Grade 1  #8 American Gal 7/2 ML- came back to the races for 4 yr debut and ran her eyeballs out setting a torrid pace and getting nosed out in the Grade 1 Madison last out. She has shown the ability in the past to stalk and pounce so may do that from outside post. $25 Win #8

Race 7- Longines CD Distaff Turf Mile Grade II-- #5 Dream Dancing 10-1 ML  hoping Casse has a strong day as here is another one. Classy filly went off form some at end of last year and beginning of this year but it’s hard for a turf closer to get up at GP.  Should get a good trip mid pack and Javier gets the call so gets the best turf jock. $25 Win #5 I threw out all the California invaders in earlier gimmick plays as I don’t trust California turf form ever out east in graded company

Race 8- Churchill Downs Sprint Grade II   #5 Outplay 10-1 ML looks to have found a home sprinting after stalking and pouncing at 7 furlongs last out at GP. Steps way up in class against some of the best sprinters in the world but has always been a huge talent. $25 Win #5 

Race 9- American Turf Stakes Grade II-  #14 Admiralty Pier 12-1 ML draws a tough post but there is a long enough run into turn 1 for this one to get tight in back. Raced a career best fig last out in the Grade III Transylvania off the long layoff and won’t be bet at all. $25 Win #14 Starting a .50 cent pick 4   3,9,10,14/3,5,7,8,12,14/4,10/3,4,5,6,7  Cost $120

Race 10- Pat Day Mile Grade III-   #3 New York Central 30-1 ML Longshot!! Was cooked early in the Sunland Derby but is now fresh and with a career best race has a shot in this wide open loaded Grade III mile. $25 Win

Race 11- Old Forester Turf Classic Grade 1  #4 Camelot Kitten 8-1 ML is 1 for 1 on the CD turf course and looks to be in good form after a disappointing 4 year old year. Mike Smith takes the mount for Maker and likes the distance. Will be every bit of 8-1 and higher.  $25 Win #4  $25 ex box 4-10 Cost $50

Race 12-  Kentucky Derby Grade 1   #3 Promises Fulfilled 30-1 ML can shock in here if allowed to set a moderate pace. Will be ignored at the windows and hopefully by the other jocks. He showed in the Grade II Fountain of Youth if left alone early he can run brave. He belongs and in Florida Derby he was quaterhorsed to go around Strike Power and he had every right to give up. Scratch that race out and he is about 15-1 off odds in the derby. So the value is huge on the likely pacesetter. Im thinking I get more than 40-1. Like the fact all the other speed is drawn outside of him which should allow him to get the rail and hopefully the other pace types set up a stalking trip and battle each other for an advantageous position. $100 Win #3   Like the 3,4,5,6,7 and will Ex and Tri box and maybe play some supers but havent priced out bets yet as ill have to see what my bankroll is like mid day.  I do feel the most likely winner in the race is Audible as he should get good inside position in the 2 tier and he is a monster to me $100 Win #5 Audible also

Race 13- #9 Regal Quality 4-1 ML  Has loved stretching out and looks the part of a major 3 yr old player later this year. Needs to take another step up in here.  $25 Win #9

Race 14- #4 Corot 4-1 ML rounds out the day and responded nicely when moved to dirt last out for Casse  $25 Win #4   Played a few Casse horses today so hoping he does well.

Thanks Vet!   I'm pumped for today