Fairgrounds, 1-1/8 miles, dirt, G-II, $1 million
A solid, if not ultra-stellar field, led by Girvin, who was electric in his win in The Risen Star. There are three or four others here that are worth the handicapping time. A race with great tradition, it’s passed on a group who went on to have outstanding careers. Winners, in recent years, include Pyro, Vicar’s in Trouble, Pants on Fire and Friesen Fire.
#8 Girvin…I Tweeted, after his Risen Star, "Who was better that day, Girvin or jockey Brian Hernandez?" Answer is both. The two worked together like a precision drill team in that race with the jock maneuvering the horse in almost scripted fashion coming from 9-1/2 L behind to rally for a 2 L win. Masterful ride. Masterful horse. Today, he’s up against a bit stiffer, with Guest Suite, Local Hero and Patch wanting to be spoilers. No easy task in this, Hernandez will, once again, need to get out the slide rule to measure pace and close against these. Excellent work for this with trainer Joe Sharp handling his boy’s duty well for the conditioner’s big shot at glory. Girvin will stay off pace again today, and should set down for run just behind a field of speedsters, hoping to seal the steal early.
#3 Local Hero….A candidate for wiring, there is some bountiful speed in this son of Hard Spun. Frenchman #2, Geroux, rides for Asmussen (a three-time winner of this) and, if anyone can get a boy out and revved up, it’s Florent. Speed didn’t hold in the Risen Star for him, but as program notes say, Local Hero was “collared.” My guess is that neither horse nor jockey expected the hurricane force winds of Girvin in that final two furlongs. A different day today? I think so. Gun Runner style on the front end?
#1 Patch….If Local Hero is speedy, then this guy is speedier registering a Brisnet 101 last out in a 14 horse field, while breaking his maiden for Pletcher. The knock, for me, is that it’s Tyler Gaffalione grabbing the strap….not John Velazquez, the rider in the boy’s win. Nothing against Tyler, but I heard an HRTV guy the other day say that when he mans the leather in a stakes race, pelicans head further south for the day. Nonetheless, Patch has a real chance to step up, Todd-style, entering murky waters after two just career 46K maidens and no races at age two. Not an easy chore, but we saw what Pletcher’s Melagacy did two weeks ago in a similar field.
#6 Guest Suite….Here is a guy who is sure to suck up a great deal of the pari-mutuel after ‘say-whating’ (?) in the Risen Star….with the Albarado Factor kicking in. As it appeared the Quality Road gelding was headed for the promised land driving in the fourth spot 4-1/2 out, he went to the concession stand, grabbed a Po Boy, and managed still to finish fourth…. 4-1/2 out. Outstanding work coming into this and there should be no excuses this time. If he can get any kind of trip, I think you might see Guest Suite and Girvin duking it out late. Backers better hope that Robbie had a good night’s sleep.
#7 Sorry Erik….His Risen star was a dump, and I believe the son of Wilburn and The Clan Desormeux is much better. With 30-1 ML, I must include based on his form prior to the Risen Star. I don’t think Erik is here for the Desormeux family reunion. While his work for this is less than pedestrian, maybe the work strategy is the medicine the horse needs to step it up for this. Read between the lines because, if anything else, the colt is capable of at least some.
#5 Monaco….Don’t let this one fly under your handicapping radar at 12-1 ML. There might be something here with Maragh on top for Pletcher, who has won this race three times. Maragh won on Mission Impazable in 2010. Monaco is an Uncle Mo just off his maiden win, real green, but poised to move forward. Rajiv is very good on the young ones and I see this guy having a real shot at a decent slice if he can keep his young brain in focus…..with blinkers on!
#4 Senior Investment….A lot to like for Kenny McPeek’s boy with a career of 5/2-0-1 and rolling into form. This his graded stakes debut, the Discreetly Mine colt looks ready for run and can be a check collector for a good portion today. Channing Hill rides, and that’s good. 12- 1 ML.
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