Preakness Anaysis and Picks-- PART I

My head’s still bleeding from all of the scratching I’ve done about the way the Kentucky Derby unfolded. Not because Always Dreaming won, or that my pick, Classic Empire, lost. Always Dreaming’s victory was very well-earned off an electric performance.

Like many of you, I simply figured it would be a much more competitive race with Classic Empire, Gunnevera, Irish War Cry, Tapwrit, McCracken and Gormley worthy participants.

It would be easy to, falsely, attribute the demise of these contenders solely to the great performance of Always Dreaming. As I said, AD’s win was earned. However, none of the aforementioned runners up was worth a dern with, perhaps, the exception of Classic Empire, who had nuthin’ but trouble from the gate and throughout the first half of the race and with mud in eyes.

Those of you who read the drivel l posted about the preps know that I touted Lookin At Lee as a vast improver and one who would progress in the Kentucky Derby. Indeed, a masterful rail-ride by Lanerie was the key factor in getting Lee to place. However, I have to ask, would the colt have progressed to second place had the others been diligent that day? If Irish War Cry, McCracken, Classic Empire and Tapwrit pressed Always Dreaming at the eight pole, would the results be the same?

I bring all of this to the surface because the scenario in the Preakness is a similar one. A factor for me in my handicapping is to consider if any of the nine opponents to Always Dreaming is capable of putting in the meaningful work needed to beat the current champ.

Quite frankly, at the moment, I am not seeing anyone having the running style, tactical acumen and pure talent to beat Always Dreaming. Those of you who are long-time Preaknessphiles know what it takes for a horse to get the tricky 1-3/16 miles distance. Simply put, it ain’t a mile-and-an eighth; and it ain’t a mile-and-a quarter.

While it doesn’t necessarily take a freak of a horse to figure out this distance from distances it’s raced or has been trained to race, looking at those that have won the Preakness in the past 20 years, seems to me it takes tactics of the combined talents of the trainer, jockey and horse, more so than any other prep or, maybe, even the Derby! Bottom line, no one breeds a horse to run 1-3/16 miles, so the training and riding tactics are critical….no matter how good the horse has performed in the past.

Look at those who have won the Preakness in recent years, then check the factoid that our Brother in Racing, Midnight1, reported on the forum earlier this week.

“Some exotics Preakness history includes the winner being 3-1 or less in 13 of the last 16 races.”

Since 2001, the wining crowd includes American Pharoah, California Chrome, Rachel Alexandra, I’ll Have Another, Big Brown, Curlin, Afleet Alex, Funnycide, Smarty Jones…..every one of them a Hall of Famer, which should leave little doubt why the Preakness winner in 13 of the last 16 races has been 3-1 or less.

I am not quite yet ready to put Always Dreaming in the team photo with American Pharoah, Curlin and Big Brown, but there is something about the Kentucky Derby that makes most of its winner’s better competitors going forward.

Here are the facts Midnight provided for us:

• Jockey Jorge Carreno, on Conquest Mo Money, has won only one graded stakes victory in his career and that was in 2012.

• Three Straight runner ups have been 10-1 or more.

• Seven of the last eleven show horses were 10-1 or more.

• Eight of the last nine Exactas included at least one horse 5-2 or less.

• Finally, the trifecta has paid under $100 in eight of the last 20 races.    

   

  Here are other nuggets to chew on:

   

• The Derby winner has won the Preakness 10 of the past 20 years.

• Regarding runners who did not run in the Derby……Just three of the last 33 Preakness winners didn’t run in the Derby. The three winners are noteworthy: Rachel Alexandra, Bernardini and Red Bullet.

• Here are the Derby entrants running in the Preakness: Always Dreaming, Lookin At Lee, Classic Empire, Hence and Gunnevera (Your 5 box bet?).

   

  Lots to talk about before Saturday afternoon’s doin’s at Pimlico. What are your thoughts? More of mine Saturday morning.

TAKE Note Cappers and Cappets atThe Barber's observations...