Saturday Belmont Card Breakdown

Lousy rainy day here in South Florida. So I've got time to share some capping thoughts on each race. Here goes...

RACE 1

#1..1st timer bred for speed

#2..shows early speed but has been away 10 months

#3..last 2 have been dull with stumbling at the break in her last. But we're talking Pratt/Maker here with a bullet workout

#4..has shown some early speed but tires for a trainer 1 for 21 at the meet

#5..finished 2nd in her last for Irad/Pletcher

#6..last was a stinker but finished 3rd twice in her previous two

#7..Javier back up on this filly who has ran 3rd in 3 of 5 races

#8..hasn't gone further than 4.5F for 0-19 trainer

#9..Tyler/Pletcher/Repole for heavily played filly who has run 2nd in both tries.

#10..in from GP & picks up Geroux for trainer who has won 1 of 35 this year

#11.firster for George Weaver with a jockey in Saez that is known for getting out of the gate from an outside post

#12.firster for Pletcher who wins at only 9% of this type

LOOK LIVE....3-9-11

FORGOT TO ADD #5 AS LIVE IN THE 1ST RACE

RACE 2

#1..ran 3rd in only turf try after breaking slow for Johnny V/Mott; 4 of 5 ITM (in the money)

#2..won 1st race off the claim by Maker @ 12-1. Franco stays put. Downside...has only won 2 of 10 on the turf

#3..closed nicely for 4th after being steadied early; jockey has won 1 of 23

#4..won only try on the turf in her last; 4 for 4 ITM. Jock upgrade to Irad

#5..last 2 were dull & has a penchant of running 2nd (6 of 21)

#6..going a furlong longer here with Pratt; this one also likes running 2nd in 3 of 6

#7..tired in her last going 6F; love trainer Michelle Nevin wining @ 24%

#8..failed in her last as the chalk but won her previous race by 14 lengths in the slop. Rosario/Clement on the turf!!

#9..Katie Davis won on her with a big closing move for Englehart & that was her only win on the turf (1 for 13)

#10..won her last in the slop; 0 for 5 on the turf but Javier hops up

#11.won her last 2 on the turf @ Tampa & ships here picking up Tyler for owner/trainer Roy Leman

LIVE...2-4-7-5-8

RACE 3

#1..has won 5 f this last 6; moves up in class

#2..woke up in his last race @ 10-1; 7 year old has won 10 of 45 lifetime

#3..won his last @ Woodbine & picks up Rosario; has ran 2nd in 5 of 9 races

#4..one to bear; has banked over 2 mil & has won 6 straight at 5 different tracks & 3 different distances. Check out the video of his BC Sprint from last year

#5..has been the chalk in all but his last race for Cox winning 4 of 6

#6..has been asway 8 months after being eased @ PARX; 15 of 18 ITM

LIVE....4-6

RACE 4

#1..11 of 13 ITM but only 1 win

#2..last 2 were dull but has won 2 of 2 @ Belmont. Banked 388k

#3..stretching out to 7F; passed tired horses to get 3rd in last

#4..last 5 dull. Not sure what he's doing here.

#5..Jacobson owns/trains this one & has been red hot along with Irad; comes over from Penn Nat & moves up in class

#6..ships in from GP after winning 2 of 4 for Casse/Barber connection

#7..beaten chalk in last 2 but 5 of 6 ITM @ the 7F distance; banked almost 250k

#8..shortens up here with good tactical speed; something went wrong in his last when he threw in the towel. Dylan Davis back up 

#9.. has shown the tendency to break slowly; has won just 2 of 16

#10..ran 4th of 5 in his last for trainer/owner Peter Walder; has 2 nice bullet workouts

LIVE ...8-6-

RACE 5 

#1..has won 6 of 7 & 3 for 3 at the 1 mike distance

#2..has been away 9 months; he had won his last 2. Not sure why he's been away so long for the Brown/Dubb connection

#3..another Brown colt that has been away 7 months

#4..shortens up here after winning his last

#5..has a nice closing style but moving up in class

#6..this More Than Ready has won 5 of 10 but was never close to #1 two races back

#7..comes in from Woodbine for Cass/Barber; has won 7 of 10. Saez will try to run away from #1

LIVE...1 (BEST BET) 

RACE 6

#1..ran 4th in last year's Brooklyn; hasn't won in over a year

#2..this will be his 3rd race off the claim by Maker; missed by a neck in his last

#3..has won his last 2 but moves up in class

#4..ran 3rd as chalk in last for Irad/Pletcher/Repole. Breeding (Curlin) indicates he'll love the extra distance 

#5..has won 6 of 16 & 580k

#6..trainer has been known to bring home longshots & this guy has banked almost 1 mil; may be worth a WPS play

#7..14 of 16 ITM with 5 wins including his last at this 1 1/2M distance

#8..this 8 year old has won 16 of 44 but his last win was in last May. Like Javier taking the mount for Diodoro

#9..this guy has beaten # 7 & 8 when he was 30-1 for sneaky good trainer Jaime Ness

#10..has won 1 of 11 @ Big Sandy & moves up in class here

#11..has been dull in his last 5

LIVE..7-9-4-5 

RACE 7

#1..6 of his 9 races have been at different tracks. So the environment shouldn't shake up this lady. She's run 2nd twice at this distance but she's in tough here

#2..just missed at this distance in her last after a 6 month layoff. She should sit off the pace & make one big move

#3.. is an example of an owner taking a big swing & probable miss

#4..has ran 2nd as the chalk in her last 2 races losing to both #5 & 6. 

#5 has won 5 of her last 7 including 2 in a row

#6..loves this distance (11-6-4-1) & will be closing in a tough tough race.

LIVE ALL BUT 1 & 3

This is a lot of work.

Should I continue????

Been on covers for many years and just wanted to thank you for your posted information, you do a great job.  When I'm doing research for betting on the horses I always check the forum and find your information especially helpful.

@Midnight1

 Yes. PLEASE..Carry on. Goodluck to all.

For sure u know your shit...

Thanks for the feedback   Here we go...

RACE 8

#1..looks like Santana's only mount of the day which I find surprising; the colt is 3 for 3 & they will have to catch him going a furlong farther than ever before

#2..like the Gun Runner breeding but this guy hasn't won in his last 4.

#3..won his last & moves up in class. I know Doc likes him but I think he beat a questionable field in his last @ Pimlico; Baffert/Johnny V is a tough combo to beat 

#4.. won 4 of 7 including 2 in a row & 500k; he'll be closing for Shug who is a chilly 1 for 17 at the meet

#5..questionable speed & distance issue but does pick up Jose Ortiz

#6..moving up in class & was well bet in both starts; missed by a nose in his last & has a bullet best of 77; Franco gets the mount

#7..2 for 2 & moving up; speed has improved from 80 to 96 when Prat took the reigns; trainer Brisset is sneaky good

#8..lost by a neck to #4 in last; ran 5th to Forte in the FLA Derby; Baffert keeps Rosario up

#9..won last after 4 month layoff; big barn change from Baffert to Brittany Russell; has won 2 of 3

#10..broke his maiden by winning his last by 10 but is 5-1-2-0  & moving up

#11..has won 3 of 5 but is also the beaten chalk in his last 2; Cox makes a change to his go to jock Geroux who has yet to ride the colt

#12..ran 3rd to #4 & #8 with a closing ride by Irad still losing by almost 4 for trainer Walsh

#13 is 4 for 4 with speed improvements of 81-93-96-101; the post sucks & he's moving up in class as well

LIVE  1-4-7-11   

Race 9

#1..missed by a nose in his last & likes Belmont going 15-5-4-3; has lost to bot 7 & 9

#2..ran 3rd in his last for Wesley Ward closing from 8th; ran 12th to #12 Caravel

#3..has been right there in his last 5 winning 2 of them; attracts Johnny V

#4..has won 13 of 39 including his last 3 but has banked just 399k for his efforts

#5..makes his 3rd US start for Brown/Brant; showed some speed in his last & shortens up here

#6..Casse/Barber connection has won 5 of 15 mostly @ Woodbine

#7..2nd in here for Donk & hasn't won since October & twice beaten by #9; does attract Javier for the 1st time

#8..2nd for Ward in here & beaten fav in his last;  ran 3rd to #12 missing by a half & 2nd to #11 by the same half in a closing style

#9..has won 8 of 21 & is moving up in class; Franco will try to get the lead

#10..has won 7 of 10 for the Rosario/Clement angle; sits off the pace & Rosario pushes the button

#11..has banked over 2 mil for Bill Mott; ran 9th to #12

#12..BC Turf Sprint champ last year; has won 14 of 22; has won his last 4 

#13..won his last but in a tough spot here

#14..has won 25% going 4 for 16 but making a huge class move

LIVE 10-12-8-5

RACE 10

#1..heartwarming story behind this guy who has won 8 of 12 for Mott

#2..been away 7 months; ran 3rd in the BC Mile to the above

#3..comes in from Cali & attracts Irad; is 11-6-2-2 but has never gone a mile

#4..2 for 19 lifetime & hasn't won in a while BUT he did run 2nd to #1 in is last

#5..this guy has regressed since winning the Dwyer by 23 lengths; Pletcher goes back to Johnny V who rode him in that race

#6.. beaten chalk in last 2 & ran 2nd to #7; banked 1.5 mil with a 10-2-4-3 record. Has tons of class having run in every big race

#7..has won 5 of 6 convincingly after moving to the Jaime Ness barn; just missed catching #8 two races back. Should get a fair price on him

#8..had won 3 in a row before going on the bench for 2 months. Two bullet works show he may have enjoyed the layoff

#9..sad story behind this guy changing hands from Saffie Joseph to Tricky Dick Dutrow. I think Joseph got a bad rap after 2 of his horses were euthanized @ CD. Won his las

LIVE..... 1-6-7-3-5 (Actually that's my tri key for tomorrow)

RACE 11

#1..hasn't won in 3 years

#2..has won 2 in a row for Geroux/Casse/Barber & Kinsman (AKA Steinbrenner Family); 9 of 10 ITM

#3..has won 5 of 9 for trainer Charlie Appleby but was the beaten chalk in is last to his stablemate

#4,,also trained by Appleby who beat #3 in his last; has won 2 in a row for Godolphin

#5..ran 2nd to #6 in his last; hasn't won since last July

#6..has won 12 of 34 banking 1.7 mil; likes Belmont having won 5 of 11 including his last for Mike Maker

#7..ran a tiring 4th in his last after being away for 6 months losing to #4; 16 of 28 ITM

#8..has won 4 for 8 with Irad/Pletcher/Repole including his last in a closing style

#9..last 2 have been dull but Maker goes to Saez here

#10..11 of 17 ITM but hasn't won since Feb of 22 with Gafflione

LIVE 6-4-8-2 

RACE 12...WILL BE POSTED TOMORROW

RACE 13 SMALL "HONK FOR DONK" WPS #8

This is how I see things today but you know how things can change tomorrow.

Get some good sleep tonight & be ready to swing away!

Great stuff, Midnight, as always. Thanks for all your good work. Going out to the LSU baseball game so I need all the help I can get.

 Short on time today so thanks. Great info 

Happy Belmont Day! Long time follower of your posts Midnight and appreciate all the time, help and effort. Heading to Belmont now. Thoughts on the big race? Leaning 8-2-6-4.

Cheers & best of luck!

Best horse capper on Covers. Thanks for posting and BOL today!

#9..Tyler/Pletcher/Repole for heavily played filly who has run 2nd in both tries.

Of course, these connections win the opener with a big closing ride by Tyler

Alive in the DD with 1-2-4-8 (this is a change from the 2-4-5-7-8 earlier)

Just missed with the 8 in Race 2 & Elite Power was tremendous for Bill Mott.

#8 is chilly on the board right now. Maybe Saez steals the race on #6 right out of the gate

Thanks for your time, and good luck with your picks 

Thanks for your time, and good luck with your picks