Some interesting facts about Derby history

A few facts that might come into play aside from Appolo, Eruos, etc.......

1) For those backing Justify and Hofburg.....Two Kentucky Derby winners with three career starts before the Derby have won the race: Regret (1915) and Big Brown (2008). 

2) Justify is the favorite and faves have won the past five KY Derby's. However, the last time the Derby was won by the fave in six consecutive years was 1896!

3) For Magnum Moon backers.......Note that horses with four career starts, there have been three winners: Animal Kingdom (2011), Exterminator (1918) and Alan-a-Dale (1902). 

4) For Vino Rosso backers, and I am one that thinks he has a shot. Since 2003, 30 horses out of the Wood have raced in the KY Derby. Their record is 30/0-0-0. 

5) For Noble Indy backers......Lest we forget (Hey Tygremyke!), only two horses that won the Lousisanna Derby have won the KY Derby. Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996. 

6) For those backing the sons of Scat Daddy, which incudes Flameaway, Justify, Combatant, Mendelssohn.... Scat Daddy finished 18th in his Kentucky Derby. 

7) If you like versatility, look to Flameaway.  Winner of 5 of 9 lifetime, including four stakes races. Won in mud, slop, on turf and a fast track.

8) Audible backers.....jockey Castellano hasn't hit the board in 11 KY Derby races.

9) This about Justify from great Xpressbet writer Johnny D....."At least for the last 32 years, every Derby winner but one (Triple Crown winner American Pharoah) had faced a 10+ field size at least once before the Derby. Justify hs previously run at only one racetrack—Santa Anita, three times, against a total of just 14 foes over a cumulative 3 miles. Heck, Saturday, in one race he’ll face 19 others going a distance almost half that!"

10) Unraced two year olds in the Derby.... in 61 races they are 0 wins-3 seconds-5 thirds. Pletcher and Baffert, with horses unraced at two, are 0 for 7 in the Derby.

11) For My Boy Jack backers, in nine starts the colt "had never taken a backward Beyer fig step until his last race—the Lexington, which he won," according to Johnny D.

12) Just three runners, Justify, Mednelssohn and Bolt d'Oro, have posted 100 Beyer's....2 of the 3 at Sangta Anita and one a speed biassed Dubai. Hmmmm.

I have read a lot of what Baffert says about the horse. Maybe I am reading between the lines, but Baffert just doesn't seem to have the same confidence in Justify as he had in many of his other horses, including Arrogate, Bodemeister, West Coast. 

This from today's drf.com....does this sound like a uber-confident trainer?

"He’s a beautiful mover. All the ingredients are there. Now all you need is racing luck,” Baffert said. “He has to break well. You cannot make a mistake. Dreams can be shattered in 100 yards.”