Sunland Derby

freaks, lurkers, whackjobs

Today we are doing something special for you kids out there - taking a stab at this race based on pace handicapping. We like to use this when there appears to be a pace that is either very slow or very fast. This approach gets it wrong a lot - so much depends on trainer intentions, jockey decisions, racing luck, randomness, etc....but we also catch some nice tickee tickee playing this way.

Some overall notes....More posts to come.....

Favs winning at 43% last 30 days here. Morning line favs 1,2 have won 48%. This race does look a bit chalky with 2 SA runners have the best speed on paper that everyone will notice and frankly makes them tough to beat. However - our approach is always try and beat the favs if you see some potential. Problem is - most likely our bets today will  but #whatthehell

Also post position? This is a distance that does not get carded basically ever at Sunland - in fact most routes are quite a bit shorter here - but - FWIW - last 365 days best posts are 5,6,7 and the outside spot in routes....1,2 not the place to be,,,,,Last 30 days in routes here - 5,6,7 performing very well and post 1 just 2/28 and usually overbet. So probably means nothing - but in a nutshell - lean to any contenders outside of post 1,2.

more to come.....

So we welcome any feedback on classification of runners...

Also we understand that this is a best guess and especially young runners can switch styles on a dime

(E) - need the front

#2 Garen....decent wire to wire win last out in MSW...nice work tab...don't think wire to wire gonna happen in this one lots of early speed - Not impossible

#4 Global Strike....Never underestimate Pletcher...first start appears to be a pressing race but he missed the break...Based on last gonna classify him as a horse doing his best up front

#5 Tanzanite Cat....Spit the bit up close last time - another who needs the lead - GL today

(E/P) - horses that can win on lead or just off the lead

#7 Midnight Hawk....Great connections - 2/4....Tough runner to gauge here but does show an up close 2nd 3rd and 3rd at the 2nd call in his races...Worried that he has never passed a horse in the stretch....Was the fav vs Chitu (#9) in last....Not sure he is gonna win unless he can settle just behind some early running pigs...but again - technically has not shown he can pass anyone late....Major Contender but with warts

#9 Chitu....2/3 with a second....Also shows up close racing in all 3 starts and while the "smart" thing may be to try and rate off the pace - always sketchy to try and do something with a horse that it has never done before....SICK worktab....To us the most likely winner with great connections but beatable if horse cant rate

So far.....Looks like lots of heat early - and doubt anyone will get a breather with 7.9 in the race....Can anyone win from off the pace?

Off the pace horses

#1 Bourbonize (Presser)....Throw out last from post 12 at OP....First 2 races won both and was within 5 lengths of the lead at the first call and within a length by the second call....Post a bit worrisome but gonna have a lot of speed to run at - great worktab....BOMB possibility

#3 Commissioner (Presser)...Cant deny Pletcher greatness but this smells like one of those name horses that punches your bankroll in the nuts and kicks it in the teeth,,,only 1 race of 4 would get him in the top 3 here IMO....Not sold and while he absolutely can win - think he will be clear 3rd choice and overbet - didn't run a lick last start - against much tougher mind you

#6 Lawly's Goal - almost surely to be last at the first call and speed figures - not our focus with 3 yr olds - but still are brutal - might clunk up for 4th in the super duper but gonna toss

#8 Rebranded...A potential tasty treat ....Absolutely improving - last race close to his best Beyer wise and had a pace top 2 back....Great worktab shows he is healthy - nice 6F drill followed by 59 sec 5F beauty....Trainer is fantastic - although MEGALOCKS research staff noted he is 1 L 22 on the win end...In any event - has 2 races over the track - both good - and while speed wise he appears overmatched - when you take the position that the pace may meltdown and he is not part of that - he can absolutely outrun his odds which should be 8-1+....Leaves well enough can see him spotted 4th to 7th down the backstretch and then hopefully will have some tired speed to run at. Our pick at a price.

Wagers next........

Wagers

WP #8 (at 6-1+)

Win #1 (small and only if 8-1+)

Ex box 7-8, 8-9

Tri 3,7,9 with all with 8; all with 3,7,9 with 8

Don't love the race but will go small-medium on this puppy - was motivated by some great posts on the race. GL freaks.

MEGA

Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Freak

Totally agree if he does not improve he has no shot. 

Based on 

Age

Work tab and race spacing

Trainer

Pace setup

I believe he runs his best race today and hits top 3. 3rd i get tri almost certainly. But yes - if you want to cash a ticket smarter to play 9 3 7. We are going for a price. Also hoping he is not near lead so will have more coming home. 

Geez, Mega. Looks like what I posted hrs. ago?